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Greely at Medomak Valley
Sat, Oct 3, 2026 · 2:00 PM · Medomak Valley High School
Greely team page Medomak Valley team page What-if simulator
Frozen pick for the weekly picks: Greely, est. 94%, written Oct 1. The numbers above use today's rating and can differ a little.
After this weekend · Class C Crabtree
Where Medomak Valley and Greely can land
Places #1 to #12 after this week's games. Dark = possible with a win, light = possible with a loss. The outlined box is where they stand today.
Win: #8 to #10 · Loss: #9 to #12
With a win: best is #8 est. 44% chance
Has to happen no single other result; there is more than one way.
Likeliest way York beats Brewer; Wells beats Gardiner; Leavitt beats Dirigo.
Even with a loss: best is #9 est. 19% chance
Has to happen Brewer beats York; Nokomis beats Hampden.
Likeliest way also has Wells beats Gardiner; Hermon beats Oceanside.
Win: #2 to #6 · Loss: #5 to #7
With a win: best is #2 est. under 1% chance
Has to happen York beats Brewer; Wells beats Gardiner; Mattanawcook beats Winslow; Oceanside beats Hermon; MCI beats Madison; John Bapst beats Foxcroft; Leavitt beats Dirigo; Nokomis beats Hampden.
Even with a loss: best is #5 est. 37% chance
Has to happen Hermon beats Oceanside.
Likeliest way also has Wells beats Gardiner; Nokomis beats Hampden.
possible with a win possible with a loss place today
Depends on 10 other games this weekend, including Gardiner at Wells, Winslow at Mattanawcook, Belfast at Mountain Valley, Hermon at Oceanside, MCI at Madison, John Bapst at Foxcroft and 4 more. Crabtree counts opponents' records, so those results move both teams.
How to read the best-case notes: "Has to happen" results are needed in every way to that place. "Likeliest way" is the most probable route by our rating; other routes can exist. Chances are estimates from our power rating.
Worth knowing
- Both played Wells: Medomak Valley lost by 13, Greely won by 20
- Medomak Valley has lost 4 straight
Greely this season
| Fri 9/4 | vs. York | W 48–0 |
| Thu 9/10 | vs. Leavitt | L 12–30 |
| Fri 9/18 | at Wells | W 34–14 |
| Fri 9/25 | vs. Nokomis | W 35–7 |
| Sat 10/3 | at Medomak Valley | this game |
| Fri 10/9 | vs. Oceanside | |
| Fri 10/16 | vs. Hermon | |
| Fri 10/23 | at Falmouth | |
| Fri 10/30 | at Gardiner |
Medomak Valley this season
| Fri 9/4 | at Leavitt | L 8–39 |
| Fri 9/11 | vs. Wells | L 8–21 |
| Fri 9/18 | at Camden Hills | L 0–21 |
| Fri 9/25 | at Hermon | L 6–51 |
| Sat 10/3 | vs. Greely | this game |
| Fri 10/9 | at Hampden | |
| Sat 10/17 | vs. Gardiner | |
| Fri 10/23 | vs. Oceanside | |
| Fri 10/30 | at Brewer |
Recent meetings
| 2025 | Medomak Valley 8, Greely 36 |
From the past seasons in our records.
Quick answers
When and where do Greely and Medomak Valley play?
Greely plays at Medomak Valley on Sat, Oct 3, 2026 at 2:00 PM, at Medomak Valley High School.
Who has the better chance, Greely or Medomak Valley?
Greely. Our power rating gives Greely an est. 88% chance to win, by est. 20 points.
What is Greely's record and Crabtree place?
Greely is 3–1 and #4 of 12 in Class C in the Crabtree standings, the MPA's playoff order, recomputed from every result.
What is Medomak Valley's record and Crabtree place?
Medomak Valley is 0–4 and #11 of 12 in Class C in the Crabtree standings, the MPA's playoff order, recomputed from every result.
What does this game mean for Medomak Valley's playoff seeding?
With a win, Medomak Valley finishes the week between #8 to #10 in Class C; with a loss, between #9 to #12, depending on the week's other results.
Can Medomak Valley still be #9 in Class C if it loses?
Yes. Even with a loss, Medomak Valley can finish the week #9 if Brewer beats York, Nokomis beats Hampden, Wells beats Gardiner and Hermon beats Oceanside. Our rating puts that at est. 19%.
What does this game mean for Greely's playoff seeding?
With a win, Greely finishes the week between #2 to #6 in Class C; with a loss, between #5 to #7, depending on the week's other results.
Who won the last meeting between Greely and Medomak Valley?
Greely won the last meeting in our records, 36–8 in 2025.
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Win chances come from the niftiIQ power rating, a statistical model built on this season's results; the method is on the About page and its track record on Accuracy. Crabtree places use the MPA's own method, recomputed. Nothing here is advice.