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Medomak Valley Class C
Projected final record 3–6 · projected #10 seed · full projection →. A season-simulation projection, not a prediction.
Want to see how the standings could change? Open the what-if simulator →
Playoff picture · Class C, top 8 qualify · all divisions →
Still in contention. With 5 games to play, Medomak Valley can finish as high as #1 and as low as #12: the playoff cut runs right through this team.
"Clinched" and "eliminated" are exact: they hold for every possible combination of remaining results. Seeds use the same Crabtree method as the standings. Nothing here is a prediction.
Games that matter most · if the higher-rated team wins every game, Medomak Valley is the #10 seed
These are the games whose result moves Medomak Valley's seed the most (every other game held at the rating's pick). Each column shows who wins and where Medomak Valley lands.
| Date | Game | Medomak Valley's seed if… | …or if… |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 10/3 | vs Greely in/out | Medomak Valley wins → #8 in | Greely wins → #10 out |
| Sat 10/17 | vs Gardiner in/out | Medomak Valley wins → #8 in | Gardiner wins → #10 out |
| Fri 10/23 | vs Oceanside in/out | Medomak Valley wins → #8 in | Oceanside wins → #10 out |
| Fri 10/2 | other game: York vs Brewer | Brewer wins → #9 out | York wins → #10 out |
| Sat 10/3 | other game: Hampden vs Nokomis | Hampden wins → #9 out | Nokomis wins → #10 out |
| Sat 10/24 | other game: York vs Hampden | Hampden wins → #9 out | York wins → #10 out |
Medomak Valley's own games are in bold; "other game" rows are matchups Medomak Valley isn't in but that still move its seed (Crabtree counts opponents' records). Open the full simulator →
Championship chances · projection, week 4 · all divisions →
Simulated from the power ratings: how often Medomak Valley wins the bracket across thousands of season runs, not a betting number. A projection, not advice; to win state a team must first win its region.
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/4 | at Leavitt Class C | L 8–39 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/11 | Wells Class C | L 8–21 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/18 | at Camden Hills Class B North | L 0–21 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/25 | at Hermon Class C | L 6–51 | Recap → |
| Sat 10/3 | Greely Class C | 2:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/9 | at Hampden Class C | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Sat 10/17 | Gardiner Class C | 1:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/23 | Oceanside Class C | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/30 | at Brewer Class C | 6:00 PM | Preview → |
Crabtree, shown step by step
| Opponent played | Their W-L | Counts? |
|---|---|---|
| Leavitt | 4-0 | yes |
| Wells | 2-2 | yes |
| Camden Hills | 1-3 | yes |
| Hermon | 4-0 | yes |
Own win% = 0 / 4 = 0.0000
Opponents pooled = 11 wins / 16 games = 0.6875
Crabtree = (0.0000 + 0.6875) × 100 = 68.750
Heal tiebreaker: preliminary index 1.000, tournament index 0.0000 over 9 scheduled games.
niftiIQ power rating
-17.6 points vs. an average Maine team (80% band -28.7 to -6.6) · rank #44 among 11-man teams · est. 0% chance of being the top-rated team in Class C, est. 0% in all of 11-man
4 games of evidence; 20% of today's number is still the starting assumption (average C team, -1.7 from where the program finished the last two seasons). A band that touches 0 means the data can't yet separate this team from average. How the rating works →
| Game | Result | Moved the rating |
|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/4 at Leavitt | L 8–39 | +1.4 |
| Fri 9/11 Wells | L 8–21 | -1.3 |
| Fri 9/18 at Camden Hills | L 0–21 | -8.3 |
| Fri 9/25 at Hermon | L 6–51 | +0.2 |
"Moved the rating" = today's rating minus what it would be if that game had never happened (everything else re-solved). A big number on one game is worth a second look at the score.