More
Wells Class C
Projected final record 5–4 · projected #5 seed · full projection →. A season-simulation projection, not a prediction.
Want to see how the standings could change? Open the what-if simulator →
Playoff picture · Class C, top 8 qualify · all divisions →
Still in contention. With 5 games to play, Wells can finish as high as #1 and as low as #12: the playoff cut runs right through this team.
"Clinched" and "eliminated" are exact: they hold for every possible combination of remaining results. Seeds use the same Crabtree method as the standings. Nothing here is a prediction.
Games that matter most · if the higher-rated team wins every game, Wells is the #6 seed
These are the games whose result moves Wells's seed the most (every other game held at the rating's pick). Each column shows who wins and where Wells lands.
| Date | Game | Wells's seed if… | …or if… |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 10/2 | vs Gardiner | Wells wins → #5 in | Gardiner wins → #6 in |
| Thu 10/8 | vs Freeport | Wells wins → #5 in | Freeport wins → #6 in |
| Sat 10/17 | vs York | Wells wins → #6 in | York wins → #7 in |
| Sat 10/24 | vs Nokomis | Wells wins → #6 in | Nokomis wins → #7 in |
| Fri 10/30 | vs Hampden | Wells wins → #6 in | Hampden wins → #7 in |
| Fri 10/2 | other game: Hermon vs Oceanside | Hermon wins → #6 in | Oceanside wins → #7 in |
Wells's own games are in bold; "other game" rows are matchups Wells isn't in but that still move its seed (Crabtree counts opponents' records). Open the full simulator →
Championship chances · projection, week 4 · all divisions →
Simulated from the power ratings: how often Wells wins the bracket across thousands of season runs, not a betting number. A projection, not advice; to win state a team must first win its region.
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/4 | Winslow Class D North | W 14–13 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/11 | at Medomak Valley Class C | W 21–8 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/18 | Greely Class C | L 14–34 | Recap → |
| Sat 9/26 | at Leavitt Class C | L 0–42 | Recap → |
| Fri 10/2 | Gardiner Class C | 6:30 PM | Preview → |
| Thu 10/8 | Freeport Class D South | 6:30 PM | Preview → |
| Sat 10/17 | at York Class C | 6:00 PM | Preview → |
| Sat 10/24 | at Nokomis Class C | 1:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/30 | Hampden Class C | 6:30 PM | Preview → |
Crabtree, shown step by step
| Opponent played | Their W-L | Counts? |
|---|---|---|
| Winslow | 3-1 | yes |
| Medomak Valley | 0-4 | yes |
| Greely | 3-1 | yes |
| Leavitt | 4-0 | yes |
Own win% = 2 / 4 = 0.5000
Opponents pooled = 10 wins / 16 games = 0.6250
Crabtree = (0.5000 + 0.6250) × 100 = 112.500
Heal tiebreaker: preliminary index 10.000, tournament index 17.7778 over 9 scheduled games.
niftiIQ power rating
-6.8 points vs. an average Maine team (80% band -18.2 to 4.6) · rank #36 among 11-man teams · est. 1% chance of being the top-rated team in Class C, est. 0% in all of 11-man
4 games of evidence; 20% of today's number is still the starting assumption (average C team, +8.5 from where the program finished the last two seasons). A band that touches 0 means the data can't yet separate this team from average. How the rating works →
| Game | Result | Moved the rating |
|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/4 Winslow | W 14–13 | +2.6 |
| Fri 9/11 at Medomak Valley | W 21–8 | +1.7 |
| Fri 9/18 Greely | L 14–34 | -2.4 |
| Sat 9/26 at Leavitt | L 0–42 | -1.3 |
"Moved the rating" = today's rating minus what it would be if that game had never happened (everything else re-solved). A big number on one game is worth a second look at the score.