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Winslow Class D North
Projected final record 5–3 · projected #1 seed · full projection →. A season-simulation projection, not a prediction.
Want to see how the standings could change? Open the what-if simulator →
Playoff picture · Class D North, top 6 qualify · all divisions →
Still in contention. With 4 games to play, Winslow can finish as high as #1 and as low as #7: the playoff cut runs right through this team.
"Clinched" and "eliminated" are exact: they hold for every possible combination of remaining results. Seeds use the same Crabtree method as the standings. Nothing here is a prediction.
Championship chances · projection, week 4 · all divisions →
Simulated from the power ratings: how often Winslow wins the bracket across thousands of season runs, not a betting number. A projection, not advice; to win state a team must first win its region.
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/4 | at Wells Class C | L 13–14 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/11 | at John Bapst Class D North | W 26–6 | Recap → |
| Sat 9/19 | Oak Hill Class D North | W 46–6 | Recap → |
| Sat 9/26 | Freeport Class D South | W 14–6 | Recap → |
| Fri 10/2 | at Mattanawcook Class D North | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/9 | at MCI Class D North | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Sat 10/17 | Morse Class D South | 1:00 PM | Preview → |
| Sat 10/24 | Madison Class D North | 1:00 PM | Preview → |
Crabtree, shown step by step
| Opponent played | Their W-L | Counts? |
|---|---|---|
| Wells | 2-2 | yes |
| John Bapst | 2-2 | yes |
| Oak Hill | 1-3 | yes |
| Freeport | 3-1 | yes |
Own win% = 3 / 4 = 0.7500
Opponents pooled = 8 wins / 16 games = 0.5000
Crabtree = (0.7500 + 0.5000) × 100 = 125.000
Heal tiebreaker: preliminary index 15.000, tournament index 37.5000 over 8 scheduled games.
niftiIQ power rating
-1.4 points vs. an average Maine team (80% band -12.9 to 10.0) · rank #27 among 11-man teams · est. 80% chance of being the top-rated team in Class D North, est. 0% in all of 11-man
4 games of evidence; 20% of today's number is still the starting assumption (average D team, +4.2 from where the program finished the last two seasons). A band that touches 0 means the data can't yet separate this team from average. How the rating works →
| Game | Result | Moved the rating |
|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/4 at Wells | L 13–14 | -2.7 |
| Fri 9/11 at John Bapst | W 26–6 | +2.2 |
| Sat 9/19 Oak Hill | W 46–6 | -0.7 |
| Sat 9/26 Freeport | W 14–6 | +0.9 |
"Moved the rating" = today's rating minus what it would be if that game had never happened (everything else re-solved). A big number on one game is worth a second look at the score.