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Morse Class D South
Projected final record 4–4 · projected #4 seed · full projection →. A season-simulation projection, not a prediction.
Want to see how the standings could change? Open the what-if simulator →
Playoff picture · Class D South, top 6 qualify · all divisions →
Still in contention. With 4 games to play, Morse can finish as high as #1 and as low as #7: the playoff cut runs right through this team.
"Clinched" and "eliminated" are exact: they hold for every possible combination of remaining results. Seeds use the same Crabtree method as the standings. Nothing here is a prediction.
Games that matter most · if the higher-rated team wins every game, Morse is the #3 seed
These are the games whose result moves Morse's seed the most (every other game held at the rating's pick). Each column shows who wins and where Morse lands.
| Date | Game | Morse's seed if… | …or if… |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 10/8 | vs Poland | Morse wins → #3 in | Poland wins → #5 in |
| Fri 10/16 | other game: Freeport vs Dirigo | Freeport wins → #3 in | Dirigo wins → #4 in |
Morse's own games are in bold; "other game" rows are matchups Morse isn't in but that still move its seed (Crabtree counts opponents' records). Open the full simulator →
Championship chances · projection, week 4 · all divisions →
Simulated from the power ratings: how often Morse wins the bracket across thousands of season runs, not a betting number. A projection, not advice; to win state a team must first win its region.
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/4 | at Mountain Valley Class D South | W 16–8 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/11 | at Dirigo Class D South | W 30–15 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/18 | Biddeford Class B South | L 8–26 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/25 | Lisbon Class D South | W 28–8 | Recap → |
| Fri 10/2 | at Freeport Class D South | 6:00 PM | Preview → |
| Thu 10/8 | Poland Class D South | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Sat 10/17 | at Winslow Class D North | 1:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/23 | Belfast Class D North | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
Crabtree, shown step by step
| Opponent played | Their W-L | Counts? |
|---|---|---|
| Mountain Valley | 0-4 | yes |
| Dirigo | 2-2 | yes |
| Biddeford | 3-1 | yes |
| Lisbon | 1-2 | yes |
Own win% = 3 / 4 = 0.7500
Opponents pooled = 6 wins / 15 games = 0.4000
Crabtree = (0.7500 + 0.4000) × 100 = 115.000
Heal tiebreaker: preliminary index 15.000, tournament index 20.8929 over 8 scheduled games.
niftiIQ power rating
-14.3 points vs. an average Maine team (80% band -25.5 to -3.0) · rank #41 among 11-man teams · est. 5% chance of being the top-rated team in Class D South, est. 0% in all of 11-man
4 games of evidence; 20% of today's number is still the starting assumption (average D team, -9.6 from where the program finished the last two seasons). A band that touches 0 means the data can't yet separate this team from average. How the rating works →
| Game | Result | Moved the rating |
|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/4 at Mountain Valley | W 16–8 | -1.6 |
| Fri 9/11 at Dirigo | W 30–15 | +3.5 |
| Fri 9/18 Biddeford | L 8–26 | -8.4 |
| Fri 9/25 Lisbon | W 28–8 | +1.6 |
"Moved the rating" = today's rating minus what it would be if that game had never happened (everything else re-solved). A big number on one game is worth a second look at the score.