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Poland Regional Class D South
Projected final record 4–4 · projected #3 seed · full projection →. A season-simulation projection, not a prediction.
Want to see how the standings could change? Open the what-if simulator →
Playoff picture · Class D South, top 6 qualify · all divisions →
Still in contention. With 4 games to play, Poland can finish as high as #1 and as low as #7: the playoff cut runs right through this team.
"Clinched" and "eliminated" are exact: they hold for every possible combination of remaining results. Seeds use the same Crabtree method as the standings. Nothing here is a prediction.
Games that matter most · if the higher-rated team wins every game, Poland is the #5 seed
These are the games whose result moves Poland's seed the most (every other game held at the rating's pick). Each column shows who wins and where Poland lands.
| Date | Game | Poland's seed if… | …or if… |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 10/8 | vs Morse | Poland wins → #3 in | Morse wins → #5 in |
| Fri 10/2 | vs Lisbon | Poland wins → #5 in | Lisbon wins → #6 in |
| Fri 10/16 | vs Madison | Poland wins → #4 in | Madison wins → #5 in |
| Fri 10/23 | vs Mountain Valley | Poland wins → #5 in | Mountain Valley wins → #6 in |
| Sat 10/3 | other game: Winthrop vs Oak Hill | Winthrop wins → #5 in | Oak Hill wins → #6 in |
| Fri 10/23 | other game: Lisbon vs Freeport | Freeport wins → #5 in | Lisbon wins → #6 in |
Poland's own games are in bold; "other game" rows are matchups Poland isn't in but that still move its seed (Crabtree counts opponents' records). Open the full simulator →
Championship chances · projection, week 4 · all divisions →
Simulated from the power ratings: how often Poland wins the bracket across thousands of season runs, not a betting number. A projection, not advice; to win state a team must first win its region.
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/4 | at Dirigo Class D South | L 28–52 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/11 | MCI Class D North | W 34–14 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/18 | Freeport Class D South | L 6–40 | Recap → |
| Thu 9/24 | at Winthrop Class D South | L 6–34 | Recap → |
| Fri 10/2 | Lisbon Class D South | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Thu 10/8 | at Morse Class D South | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/16 | at Madison Class D North | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/23 | Mountain Valley Class D South | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
Crabtree, shown step by step
| Opponent played | Their W-L | Counts? |
|---|---|---|
| Dirigo | 2-2 | yes |
| MCI | 3-1 | yes |
| Freeport | 3-1 | yes |
| Winthrop | 3-1 | yes |
Own win% = 1 / 4 = 0.2500
Opponents pooled = 11 wins / 16 games = 0.6875
Crabtree = (0.2500 + 0.6875) × 100 = 93.750
Heal tiebreaker: preliminary index 5.000, tournament index 20.3125 over 8 scheduled games.
niftiIQ power rating
-23.2 points vs. an average Maine team (80% band -34.9 to -11.4) · rank #48 among 11-man teams · est. 1% chance of being the top-rated team in Class D South, est. 0% in all of 11-man
4 games of evidence; 20% of today's number is still the starting assumption (average D team, -7.0 from where the program finished the last two seasons). A band that touches 0 means the data can't yet separate this team from average. How the rating works →
| Game | Result | Moved the rating |
|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/4 at Dirigo | L 28–52 | -4.5 |
| Fri 9/11 MCI | W 34–14 | +6.4 |
| Fri 9/18 Freeport | L 6–40 | -2.9 |
| Thu 9/24 at Winthrop | L 6–34 | +0.0 |
"Moved the rating" = today's rating minus what it would be if that game had never happened (everything else re-solved). A big number on one game is worth a second look at the score.