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Lisbon at Poland
Fri, Oct 2, 2026 · 7:00 PM · Poland Regional HS
Lisbon team page Poland team page What-if simulator
Frozen pick for the weekly picks: Poland, est. 59%, written Oct 1. The numbers above use today's rating and can differ a little.
After this weekend · Class D South Crabtree
Where Poland and Lisbon can land
Places #1 to #7 after this week's games. Dark = possible with a win, light = possible with a loss. The outlined box is where they stand today.
Win: #3 to #5 · Loss: #5 to #6
With a win: best is #3 est. 5% chance
Has to happen Freeport beats Morse; Westbrook beats Biddeford; Belfast beats Mountain Valley; MCI beats Madison; Winthrop beats Oak Hill.
Even with a loss: best is #5 est. 9% chance
Has to happen Freeport beats Morse; Belfast beats Mountain Valley; MCI beats Madison.
Likeliest way also has Foxcroft beats John Bapst; Winthrop beats Oak Hill.
Win: #4 to #6 · Loss: #6
With a win: best is #4 est. 94% chance
Has to happen Leavitt beats Dirigo.
Even with a loss: best is #6
#6 no matter what else happens this week.
possible with a win possible with a loss place today
Depends on 8 other games this weekend: Morse at Freeport, Winslow at Mattanawcook, Belfast at Mountain Valley, MCI at Madison, John Bapst at Foxcroft, Westbrook at Biddeford, Leavitt at Dirigo, Winthrop at Oak Hill. Crabtree counts opponents' records, so those results move both teams.
How to read the best-case notes: "Has to happen" results are needed in every way to that place. "Likeliest way" is the most probable route by our rating; other routes can exist. Chances are estimates from our power rating.
Worth knowing
- Both played Winthrop: Poland lost by 28, Lisbon lost by 31
- Poland won the last 2 meetings
Lisbon this season
| Fri 9/4 | at Winthrop | L 3–34 |
| Fri 9/18 | vs. Mountain Valley | W 34–6 |
| Fri 9/25 | at Morse | L 8–28 |
| Fri 10/2 | at Poland | this game |
| Fri 10/9 | vs. Mattanawcook | |
| Fri 10/16 | vs. Oak Hill | |
| Fri 10/23 | at Freeport |
Poland this season
| Fri 9/4 | at Dirigo | L 28–52 |
| Fri 9/11 | vs. MCI | W 34–14 |
| Fri 9/18 | vs. Freeport | L 6–40 |
| Thu 9/24 | at Winthrop | L 6–34 |
| Fri 10/2 | vs. Lisbon | this game |
| Thu 10/8 | at Morse | |
| Fri 10/16 | at Madison | |
| Fri 10/23 | vs. Mountain Valley |
Recent meetings
| 2025 | Lisbon 0, Poland 55 |
| 2024 | Poland 34, Lisbon 27 |
From the past seasons in our records.
Quick answers
When and where do Lisbon and Poland play?
Lisbon plays at Poland on Fri, Oct 2, 2026 at 7:00 PM, at Poland Regional HS.
Who has the better chance, Lisbon or Poland?
Poland. Our power rating gives Poland an est. 57% chance to win, by est. 3 points.
What is Lisbon's record and Crabtree place?
Lisbon is 1–2 and #6 of 7 in Class D South in the Crabtree standings, the MPA's playoff order, recomputed from every result.
What is Poland's record and Crabtree place?
Poland is 1–3 and #4 of 7 in Class D South in the Crabtree standings, the MPA's playoff order, recomputed from every result.
What does this game mean for Poland's playoff seeding?
With a win, Poland finishes the week between #3 to #5 in Class D South; with a loss, between #5 to #6, depending on the week's other results.
What does this game mean for Lisbon's playoff seeding?
With a win, Lisbon finishes the week between #4 to #6 in Class D South; with a loss, between #6, depending on the week's other results.
Can Lisbon still be #6 in Class D South if it loses?
Yes. Even with a loss, Lisbon can finish the week #6. Our rating puts that at est. 100%.
Who won the last meeting between Lisbon and Poland?
Poland won the last meeting in our records, 55–0 in 2025.
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Win chances come from the niftiIQ power rating, a statistical model built on this season's results; the method is on the About page and its track record on Accuracy. Crabtree places use the MPA's own method, recomputed. Nothing here is advice.