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Lisbon Class D South
Projected final record 3–4 · projected #6 seed · full projection →. A season-simulation projection, not a prediction.
Want to see how the standings could change? Open the what-if simulator →
Playoff picture · Class D South, top 6 qualify · all divisions →
Still in contention. With 4 games to play, Lisbon can finish as high as #1 and as low as #7: the playoff cut runs right through this team.
"Clinched" and "eliminated" are exact: they hold for every possible combination of remaining results. Seeds use the same Crabtree method as the standings. Nothing here is a prediction.
Games that matter most · if the higher-rated team wins every game, Lisbon is the #6 seed
These are the games whose result moves Lisbon's seed the most (every other game held at the rating's pick). Each column shows who wins and where Lisbon lands.
| Date | Game | Lisbon's seed if… | …or if… |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 10/2 | vs Poland | Lisbon wins → #4 in | Poland wins → #6 in |
| Fri 10/23 | vs Freeport | Lisbon wins → #4 in | Freeport wins → #6 in |
| Sat 10/3 | other game: Winthrop vs Oak Hill | Oak Hill wins → #5 in | Winthrop wins → #6 in |
| Fri 10/23 | other game: Mountain Valley vs Poland | Mountain Valley wins → #5 in | Poland wins → #6 in |
| Fri 10/23 | other game: Dirigo vs MCI | MCI wins → #5 in | Dirigo wins → #6 in |
Lisbon's own games are in bold; "other game" rows are matchups Lisbon isn't in but that still move its seed (Crabtree counts opponents' records). Open the full simulator →
Championship chances · projection, week 4 · all divisions →
Simulated from the power ratings: how often Lisbon wins the bracket across thousands of season runs, not a betting number. A projection, not advice; to win state a team must first win its region.
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/4 | at Winthrop Class D South | L 3–34 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/18 | Mountain Valley Class D South | W 34–6 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/25 | at Morse Class D South | L 8–28 | Recap → |
| Fri 10/2 | at Poland Class D South | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/9 | Mattanawcook Class D North | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/16 | Oak Hill Class D North | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/23 | at Freeport Class D South | 6:00 PM | Preview → |
Crabtree, shown step by step
| Opponent played | Their W-L | Counts? |
|---|---|---|
| Winthrop | 3-1 | yes |
| Mountain Valley | 0-4 | yes |
| Morse | 3-1 | yes |
Own win% = 1 / 3 = 0.3333
Opponents pooled = 6 wins / 12 games = 0.5000
Crabtree = (0.3333 + 0.5000) × 100 = 83.333
Heal tiebreaker: preliminary index 5.714, tournament index 1.4286 over 7 scheduled games.
niftiIQ power rating
-23.5 points vs. an average Maine team (80% band -35.8 to -11.1) · rank #49 among 11-man teams · est. 1% chance of being the top-rated team in Class D South, est. 0% in all of 11-man
3 games of evidence; 25% of today's number is still the starting assumption (average D team, -16.3 from where the program finished the last two seasons). A band that touches 0 means the data can't yet separate this team from average. How the rating works →
| Game | Result | Moved the rating |
|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/4 at Winthrop | L 3–34 | -0.4 |
| Fri 9/18 Mountain Valley | W 34–6 | +4.6 |
| Fri 9/25 at Morse | L 8–28 | -3.7 |
"Moved the rating" = today's rating minus what it would be if that game had never happened (everything else re-solved). A big number on one game is worth a second look at the score.