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Mountain Valley Class D South
Projected final record 3–5 · projected #7 seed · full projection →. A season-simulation projection, not a prediction.
Want to see how the standings could change? Open the what-if simulator →
Playoff picture · Class D South, top 6 qualify · all divisions →
Still in contention. With 4 games to play, Mountain Valley can finish as high as #1 and as low as #7: the playoff cut runs right through this team.
"Clinched" and "eliminated" are exact: they hold for every possible combination of remaining results. Seeds use the same Crabtree method as the standings. Nothing here is a prediction.
Championship chances · projection, week 4 · all divisions →
Simulated from the power ratings: how often Mountain Valley wins the bracket across thousands of season runs, not a betting number. A projection, not advice; to win state a team must first win its region.
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/4 | Morse Class D South | L 8–16 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/11 | at Mattanawcook Class D North | L 6–14 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/18 | at Lisbon Class D South | L 6–34 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/25 | Dirigo Class D South | L 6–24 | Recap → |
| Fri 10/2 | Belfast Class D North | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Sat 10/10 | at John Bapst Class D North | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Thu 10/15 | Winthrop Class D South | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/23 | at Poland Class D South | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
Crabtree, shown step by step
| Opponent played | Their W-L | Counts? |
|---|---|---|
| Morse | 3-1 | yes |
| Mattanawcook | 2-2 | yes |
| Lisbon | 1-2 | yes |
| Dirigo | 2-2 | yes |
Own win% = 0 / 4 = 0.0000
Opponents pooled = 8 wins / 15 games = 0.5333
Crabtree = (0.0000 + 0.5333) × 100 = 53.333
Heal tiebreaker: preliminary index 1.000, tournament index 0.0000 over 8 scheduled games.
niftiIQ power rating
-32.7 points vs. an average Maine team (80% band -44.5 to -21.0) · rank #54 among 11-man teams · est. 0% chance of being the top-rated team in Class D South, est. 0% in all of 11-man
4 games of evidence; 20% of today's number is still the starting assumption (average D team, -15.3 from where the program finished the last two seasons). A band that touches 0 means the data can't yet separate this team from average. How the rating works →
| Game | Result | Moved the rating |
|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/4 Morse | L 8–16 | +2.6 |
| Fri 9/11 at Mattanawcook | L 6–14 | +1.0 |
| Fri 9/18 at Lisbon | L 6–34 | -3.5 |
| Fri 9/25 Dirigo | L 6–24 | -1.4 |
"Moved the rating" = today's rating minus what it would be if that game had never happened (everything else re-solved). A big number on one game is worth a second look at the score.