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Mattanawcook Academy Class D North
Projected final record 3–5 · projected #5 seed · full projection →. A season-simulation projection, not a prediction.
Want to see how the standings could change? Open the what-if simulator →
Playoff picture · Class D North, top 6 qualify · all divisions →
Still in contention. With 4 games to play, Mattanawcook can finish as high as #1 and as low as #7: the playoff cut runs right through this team.
"Clinched" and "eliminated" are exact: they hold for every possible combination of remaining results. Seeds use the same Crabtree method as the standings. Nothing here is a prediction.
Games that matter most · if the higher-rated team wins every game, Mattanawcook is the #5 seed
These are the games whose result moves Mattanawcook's seed the most (every other game held at the rating's pick). Each column shows who wins and where Mattanawcook lands.
| Date | Game | Mattanawcook's seed if… | …or if… |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 10/16 | vs John Bapst | Mattanawcook wins → #3 in | John Bapst wins → #5 in |
| Fri 10/2 | vs Winslow | Mattanawcook wins → #4 in | Winslow wins → #5 in |
| Fri 10/9 | vs Lisbon | Mattanawcook wins → #4 in | Lisbon wins → #5 in |
| Sat 10/24 | vs Oak Hill | Mattanawcook wins → #5 in | Oak Hill wins → #6 in |
| Fri 10/16 | other game: MCI vs Belfast | Belfast wins → #4 in | MCI wins → #5 in |
Mattanawcook's own games are in bold; "other game" rows are matchups Mattanawcook isn't in but that still move its seed (Crabtree counts opponents' records). Open the full simulator →
Championship chances · projection, week 4 · all divisions →
Simulated from the power ratings: how often Mattanawcook wins the bracket across thousands of season runs, not a betting number. A projection, not advice; to win state a team must first win its region.
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/5 | at Freeport Class D South | L 6–42 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/11 | Mountain Valley Class D South | W 14–6 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/18 | at MCI Class D North | L 25–27 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/25 | Belfast Class D North | W 41–20 | Recap → |
| Fri 10/2 | Winslow Class D North | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/9 | at Lisbon Class D South | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/16 | John Bapst Class D North | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Sat 10/24 | at Oak Hill Class D North | 1:00 PM | Preview → |
Crabtree, shown step by step
| Opponent played | Their W-L | Counts? |
|---|---|---|
| Freeport | 3-1 | yes |
| Mountain Valley | 0-4 | yes |
| MCI | 3-1 | yes |
| Belfast | 1-3 | yes |
Own win% = 2 / 4 = 0.5000
Opponents pooled = 7 wins / 16 games = 0.4375
Crabtree = (0.5000 + 0.4375) × 100 = 93.750
Heal tiebreaker: preliminary index 10.000, tournament index 9.0625 over 8 scheduled games.
niftiIQ power rating
-24.5 points vs. an average Maine team (80% band -36.1 to -13.0) · rank #50 among 11-man teams · est. 2% chance of being the top-rated team in Class D North, est. 0% in all of 11-man
4 games of evidence; 20% of today's number is still the starting assumption (average D team, -15.5 from where the program finished the last two seasons). A band that touches 0 means the data can't yet separate this team from average. How the rating works →
| Game | Result | Moved the rating |
|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/5 at Freeport | L 6–42 | -1.1 |
| Fri 9/11 Mountain Valley | W 14–6 | -0.9 |
| Fri 9/18 at MCI | L 25–27 | +1.0 |
| Fri 9/25 Belfast | W 41–20 | +2.0 |
"Moved the rating" = today's rating minus what it would be if that game had never happened (everything else re-solved). A big number on one game is worth a second look at the score.