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Freeport Class D South
Projected final record 5–3 · projected #2 seed · full projection →. A season-simulation projection, not a prediction.
Want to see how the standings could change? Open the what-if simulator →
Playoff picture · Class D South, top 6 qualify · all divisions →
Still in contention. With 4 games to play, Freeport can finish as high as #1 and as low as #7: the playoff cut runs right through this team.
"Clinched" and "eliminated" are exact: they hold for every possible combination of remaining results. Seeds use the same Crabtree method as the standings. Nothing here is a prediction.
Championship chances · projection, week 4 · all divisions →
Simulated from the power ratings: how often Freeport wins the bracket across thousands of season runs, not a betting number. A projection, not advice; to win state a team must first win its region.
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/5 | Mattanawcook Class D North | W 42–6 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/11 | Winthrop Class D South | W 29–28 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/18 | at Poland Class D South | W 40–6 | Recap → |
| Sat 9/26 | at Winslow Class D North | L 6–14 | Recap → |
| Fri 10/2 | Morse Class D South | 6:00 PM | Preview → |
| Thu 10/8 | at Wells Class C | 6:30 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/16 | at Dirigo Class D South | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/23 | Lisbon Class D South | 6:00 PM | Preview → |
Crabtree, shown step by step
| Opponent played | Their W-L | Counts? |
|---|---|---|
| Mattanawcook | 2-2 | yes |
| Winthrop | 3-1 | yes |
| Poland | 1-3 | yes |
| Winslow | 3-1 | yes |
Own win% = 3 / 4 = 0.7500
Opponents pooled = 9 wins / 16 games = 0.5625
Crabtree = (0.7500 + 0.5625) × 100 = 131.250
Heal tiebreaker: preliminary index 15.000, tournament index 37.5000 over 8 scheduled games.
niftiIQ power rating
-3.2 points vs. an average Maine team (80% band -15.0 to 8.5) · rank #31 among 11-man teams · est. 41% chance of being the top-rated team in Class D South, est. 0% in all of 11-man
4 games of evidence; 20% of today's number is still the starting assumption (average D team, -3.6 from where the program finished the last two seasons). A band that touches 0 means the data can't yet separate this team from average. How the rating works →
| Game | Result | Moved the rating |
|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/5 Mattanawcook | W 42–6 | +1.2 |
| Fri 9/11 Winthrop | W 29–28 | +0.0 |
| Fri 9/18 at Poland | W 40–6 | +2.9 |
| Sat 9/26 at Winslow | L 6–14 | -1.3 |
"Moved the rating" = today's rating minus what it would be if that game had never happened (everything else re-solved). A big number on one game is worth a second look at the score.