More
Winthrop Class D South
Projected final record 6–2 · projected #1 seed · full projection →. A season-simulation projection, not a prediction.
Want to see how the standings could change? Open the what-if simulator →
Playoff picture · Class D South, top 6 qualify · all divisions →
Still in contention. With 4 games to play, Winthrop can finish as high as #1 and as low as #7: the playoff cut runs right through this team.
"Clinched" and "eliminated" are exact: they hold for every possible combination of remaining results. Seeds use the same Crabtree method as the standings. Nothing here is a prediction.
Championship chances · projection, week 4 · all divisions →
Simulated from the power ratings: how often Winthrop wins the bracket across thousands of season runs, not a betting number. A projection, not advice; to win state a team must first win its region.
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/4 | Lisbon Class D South | W 34–3 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/11 | at Freeport Class D South | L 28–29 | Recap → |
| Thu 9/17 | Madison Class D North | W 38–8 | Recap → |
| Thu 9/24 | Poland Class D South | W 34–6 | Recap → |
| Sat 10/3 | at Oak Hill Class D North | 1:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/9 | Dirigo Class D South | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Thu 10/15 | at Mountain Valley Class D South | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Sat 10/24 | at John Bapst Class D North | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
Crabtree, shown step by step
| Opponent played | Their W-L | Counts? |
|---|---|---|
| Lisbon | 1-2 | yes |
| Freeport | 3-1 | yes |
| Madison | 1-2 | yes |
| Poland | 1-3 | yes |
Own win% = 3 / 4 = 0.7500
Opponents pooled = 6 wins / 14 games = 0.4286
Crabtree = (0.7500 + 0.4286) × 100 = 117.857
Heal tiebreaker: preliminary index 15.000, tournament index 20.5357 over 8 scheduled games.
niftiIQ power rating
-1.3 points vs. an average Maine team (80% band -13.2 to 10.5) · rank #26 among 11-man teams · est. 49% chance of being the top-rated team in Class D South, est. 0% in all of 11-man
4 games of evidence; 20% of today's number is still the starting assumption (average D team, +5.9 from where the program finished the last two seasons). A band that touches 0 means the data can't yet separate this team from average. How the rating works →
| Game | Result | Moved the rating |
|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/4 Lisbon | W 34–3 | +0.3 |
| Fri 9/11 at Freeport | L 28–29 | -0.0 |
| Thu 9/17 Madison | W 38–8 | +0.9 |
| Thu 9/24 Poland | W 34–6 | -0.0 |
"Moved the rating" = today's rating minus what it would be if that game had never happened (everything else re-solved). A big number on one game is worth a second look at the score.