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Madison High School Class D North
Projected final record 4–3 · projected #2 seed · full projection →. A season-simulation projection, not a prediction.
Want to see how the standings could change? Open the what-if simulator →
Playoff picture · Class D North, top 6 qualify · all divisions →
Still in contention. With 4 games to play, Madison can finish as high as #1 and as low as #7: the playoff cut runs right through this team.
"Clinched" and "eliminated" are exact: they hold for every possible combination of remaining results. Seeds use the same Crabtree method as the standings. Nothing here is a prediction.
Championship chances · projection, week 4 · all divisions →
Simulated from the power ratings: how often Madison wins the bracket across thousands of season runs, not a betting number. A projection, not advice; to win state a team must first win its region.
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/4 | John Bapst Class D North | W 46–40 | Recap → |
| Thu 9/17 | at Winthrop Class D South | L 8–38 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/25 | Foxcroft Class C | L 7–41 | Recap → |
| Fri 10/2 | MCI Class D North | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/9 | at Belfast Class D North | 6:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/16 | Poland Class D South | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Sat 10/24 | at Winslow Class D North | 1:00 PM | Preview → |
Crabtree, shown step by step
| Opponent played | Their W-L | Counts? |
|---|---|---|
| John Bapst | 2-2 | yes |
| Winthrop | 3-1 | yes |
| Foxcroft | 3-1 | yes |
Own win% = 1 / 3 = 0.3333
Opponents pooled = 8 wins / 12 games = 0.6667
Crabtree = (0.3333 + 0.6667) × 100 = 100.000
Heal tiebreaker: preliminary index 5.714, tournament index 14.2857 over 7 scheduled games.
niftiIQ power rating
-21.6 points vs. an average Maine team (80% band -33.6 to -9.5) · rank #46 among 11-man teams · est. 3% chance of being the top-rated team in Class D North, est. 0% in all of 11-man
3 games of evidence; 25% of today's number is still the starting assumption (average D team, -10.5 from where the program finished the last two seasons). A band that touches 0 means the data can't yet separate this team from average. How the rating works →
| Game | Result | Moved the rating |
|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/4 John Bapst | W 46–40 | +3.3 |
| Thu 9/17 at Winthrop | L 8–38 | -0.9 |
| Fri 9/25 Foxcroft | L 7–41 | -4.7 |
"Moved the rating" = today's rating minus what it would be if that game had never happened (everything else re-solved). A big number on one game is worth a second look at the score.