More
Belfast Area Class D North
Projected final record 3–5 · projected #7 seed · full projection →. A season-simulation projection, not a prediction.
Want to see how the standings could change? Open the what-if simulator →
Playoff picture · Class D North, top 6 qualify · all divisions →
Still in contention. With 4 games to play, Belfast can finish as high as #1 and as low as #7: the playoff cut runs right through this team.
"Clinched" and "eliminated" are exact: they hold for every possible combination of remaining results. Seeds use the same Crabtree method as the standings. Nothing here is a prediction.
Championship chances · projection, week 4 · all divisions →
Simulated from the power ratings: how often Belfast wins the bracket across thousands of season runs, not a betting number. A projection, not advice; to win state a team must first win its region.
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/4 | Brewer Class C | W 28–26 | Recap → |
| Sat 9/12 | at Oak Hill Class D North | L 36–49 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/18 | Oceanside Class C | L 6–44 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/25 | at Mattanawcook Class D North | L 20–41 | Recap → |
| Fri 10/2 | at Mountain Valley Class D South | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/9 | Madison Class D North | 6:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/16 | MCI Class D North | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/23 | at Morse Class D South | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
Crabtree, shown step by step
| Opponent played | Their W-L | Counts? |
|---|---|---|
| Brewer | 1-3 | yes |
| Oak Hill | 1-3 | yes |
| Oceanside | 3-1 | yes |
| Mattanawcook | 2-2 | yes |
Own win% = 1 / 4 = 0.2500
Opponents pooled = 7 wins / 16 games = 0.4375
Crabtree = (0.2500 + 0.4375) × 100 = 68.750
Heal tiebreaker: preliminary index 6.250, tournament index 6.9444 over 8 scheduled games.
niftiIQ power rating
-37.4 points vs. an average Maine team (80% band -48.7 to -26.1) · rank #55 among 11-man teams · est. 0% chance of being the top-rated team in Class D North, est. 0% in all of 11-man
4 games of evidence; 20% of today's number is still the starting assumption (average D team, -21.7 from where the program finished the last two seasons). A band that touches 0 means the data can't yet separate this team from average. How the rating works →
| Game | Result | Moved the rating |
|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/4 Brewer | W 28–26 | +3.8 |
| Sat 9/12 at Oak Hill | L 36–49 | -0.5 |
| Fri 9/18 Oceanside | L 6–44 | -2.7 |
| Fri 9/25 at Mattanawcook | L 20–41 | -1.4 |
"Moved the rating" = today's rating minus what it would be if that game had never happened (everything else re-solved). A big number on one game is worth a second look at the score.