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Maine Central Institute Class D North
Projected final record 4–4 · projected #4 seed · full projection →. A season-simulation projection, not a prediction.
Want to see how the standings could change? Open the what-if simulator →
Playoff picture · Class D North, top 6 qualify · all divisions →
Still in contention. With 4 games to play, MCI can finish as high as #1 and as low as #7: the playoff cut runs right through this team.
"Clinched" and "eliminated" are exact: they hold for every possible combination of remaining results. Seeds use the same Crabtree method as the standings. Nothing here is a prediction.
Games that matter most · if the higher-rated team wins every game, MCI is the #4 seed
These are the games whose result moves MCI's seed the most (every other game held at the rating's pick). Each column shows who wins and where MCI lands.
| Date | Game | MCI's seed if… | …or if… |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 10/16 | vs Belfast | MCI wins → #4 in | Belfast wins → #5 in |
| Fri 10/2 | other game: Winslow vs Mattanawcook | Winslow wins → #4 in | Mattanawcook wins → #5 in |
| Fri 10/9 | other game: Mattanawcook vs Lisbon | Lisbon wins → #4 in | Mattanawcook wins → #5 in |
| Fri 10/16 | other game: John Bapst vs Mattanawcook | John Bapst wins → #4 in | Mattanawcook wins → #5 in |
MCI's own games are in bold; "other game" rows are matchups MCI isn't in but that still move its seed (Crabtree counts opponents' records). Open the full simulator →
Championship chances · projection, week 4 · all divisions →
Simulated from the power ratings: how often MCI wins the bracket across thousands of season runs, not a betting number. A projection, not advice; to win state a team must first win its region.
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/4 | Oak Hill Class D North | W 42–8 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/11 | at Poland Class D South | L 14–34 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/18 | Mattanawcook Class D North | W 27–25 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/25 | at Hampden Class C | W 28–13 | Recap → |
| Fri 10/2 | at Madison Class D North | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/9 | Winslow Class D North | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/16 | at Belfast Class D North | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/23 | Dirigo Class D South | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
Crabtree, shown step by step
| Opponent played | Their W-L | Counts? |
|---|---|---|
| Oak Hill | 1-3 | yes |
| Poland | 1-3 | yes |
| Mattanawcook | 2-2 | yes |
| Hampden | 0-4 | yes |
Own win% = 3 / 4 = 0.7500
Opponents pooled = 4 wins / 16 games = 0.2500
Crabtree = (0.7500 + 0.2500) × 100 = 100.000
Heal tiebreaker: preliminary index 16.250, tournament index 20.0000 over 8 scheduled games.
niftiIQ power rating
-22.2 points vs. an average Maine team (80% band -33.7 to -10.8) · rank #47 among 11-man teams · est. 2% chance of being the top-rated team in Class D North, est. 0% in all of 11-man
4 games of evidence; 20% of today's number is still the starting assumption (average D team, -16.4 from where the program finished the last two seasons). A band that touches 0 means the data can't yet separate this team from average. How the rating works →
| Game | Result | Moved the rating |
|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/4 Oak Hill | W 42–8 | +5.0 |
| Fri 9/11 at Poland | L 14–34 | -4.8 |
| Fri 9/18 Mattanawcook | W 27–25 | -0.8 |
| Fri 9/25 at Hampden | W 28–13 | +4.5 |
"Moved the rating" = today's rating minus what it would be if that game had never happened (everything else re-solved). A big number on one game is worth a second look at the score.