More
Dirigo Class D South
Projected final record 3–5 · projected #5 seed · full projection →. A season-simulation projection, not a prediction.
Want to see how the standings could change? Open the what-if simulator →
Playoff picture · Class D South, top 6 qualify · all divisions →
Still in contention. With 4 games to play, Dirigo can finish as high as #1 and as low as #7: the playoff cut runs right through this team.
"Clinched" and "eliminated" are exact: they hold for every possible combination of remaining results. Seeds use the same Crabtree method as the standings. Nothing here is a prediction.
Games that matter most · if the higher-rated team wins every game, Dirigo is the #4 seed
These are the games whose result moves Dirigo's seed the most (every other game held at the rating's pick). Each column shows who wins and where Dirigo lands.
| Date | Game | Dirigo's seed if… | …or if… |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 10/23 | vs MCI | Dirigo wins → #4 in | MCI wins → #6 in |
| Fri 10/16 | vs Freeport | Dirigo wins → #3 in | Freeport wins → #4 in |
| Fri 10/2 | other game: Lisbon vs Poland | Poland wins → #4 in | Lisbon wins → #5 in |
| Fri 10/16 | other game: Poland vs Madison | Madison wins → #4 in | Poland wins → #5 in |
| Fri 10/23 | other game: Lisbon vs Freeport | Freeport wins → #4 in | Lisbon wins → #5 in |
Dirigo's own games are in bold; "other game" rows are matchups Dirigo isn't in but that still move its seed (Crabtree counts opponents' records). Open the full simulator →
Championship chances · projection, week 4 · all divisions →
Simulated from the power ratings: how often Dirigo wins the bracket across thousands of season runs, not a betting number. A projection, not advice; to win state a team must first win its region.
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/4 | Poland Class D South | W 52–28 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/11 | Morse Class D South | L 15–30 | Recap → |
| Thu 9/17 | at John Bapst Class D North | L 6–18 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/25 | at Mountain Valley Class D South | W 24–6 | Recap → |
| Fri 10/2 | Leavitt Class C | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/9 | at Winthrop Class D South | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/16 | Freeport Class D South | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/23 | at MCI Class D North | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
Crabtree, shown step by step
| Opponent played | Their W-L | Counts? |
|---|---|---|
| Poland | 1-3 | yes |
| Morse | 3-1 | yes |
| John Bapst | 2-2 | yes |
| Mountain Valley | 0-4 | yes |
Own win% = 2 / 4 = 0.5000
Opponents pooled = 6 wins / 16 games = 0.3750
Crabtree = (0.5000 + 0.3750) × 100 = 87.500
Heal tiebreaker: preliminary index 10.000, tournament index 7.5000 over 8 scheduled games.
niftiIQ power rating
-17.0 points vs. an average Maine team (80% band -28.6 to -5.3) · rank #43 among 11-man teams · est. 3% chance of being the top-rated team in Class D South, est. 0% in all of 11-man
4 games of evidence; 20% of today's number is still the starting assumption (average D team, -2.1 from where the program finished the last two seasons). A band that touches 0 means the data can't yet separate this team from average. How the rating works →
| Game | Result | Moved the rating |
|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/4 Poland | W 52–28 | +4.0 |
| Fri 9/11 Morse | L 15–30 | -5.4 |
| Thu 9/17 at John Bapst | L 6–18 | -2.5 |
| Fri 9/25 at Mountain Valley | W 24–6 | +1.4 |
"Moved the rating" = today's rating minus what it would be if that game had never happened (everything else re-solved). A big number on one game is worth a second look at the score.