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Leavitt at Dirigo
Fri, Oct 2, 2026 · 7:00 PM · Dirigo HS
Leavitt team page Dirigo team page What-if simulator
Frozen pick for the weekly picks: Leavitt, est. 98%, written Oct 1. The numbers above use today's rating and can differ a little.
After this weekend · Class D South Crabtree
Where Dirigo and Leavitt can land
Places #1 to #7 after this week's games. Dark = possible with a win, light = possible with a loss. The outlined box is where they stand today.
Win: #2 to #5 · Loss: #3 to #6
With a win: best is #2 est. under 1% chance
Has to happen Freeport beats Morse; Westbrook beats Biddeford; Poland beats Lisbon; John Bapst beats Foxcroft; Oak Hill beats Winthrop.
Even with a loss: best is #3 est. under 1% chance
Has to happen Morse beats Freeport; Mountain Valley beats Belfast; Poland beats Lisbon; MCI beats Madison; John Bapst beats Foxcroft; Oak Hill beats Winthrop.
Win: #1 to #3 · Loss: #1 to #5
With a win: best is #1 est. 20% chance
Has to happen no single other result; there is more than one way.
Likeliest way York beats Brewer; Wells beats Gardiner; MCI beats Madison.
Even with a loss: best is #1 est. under 1% chance
Has to happen York beats Brewer; Wells beats Gardiner; Oceanside beats Hermon; MCI beats Madison; John Bapst beats Foxcroft.
possible with a win possible with a loss place today
Depends on 14 other games this weekend, including Gardiner at Wells, Morse at Freeport, Winslow at Mattanawcook, Belfast at Mountain Valley, Lisbon at Poland, Hermon at Oceanside and 8 more. Crabtree counts opponents' records, so those results move both teams.
How to read the best-case notes: "Has to happen" results are needed in every way to that place. "Likeliest way" is the most probable route by our rating; other routes can exist. Chances are estimates from our power rating.
Worth knowing
- Leavitt has won 4 straight
Leavitt this season
| Fri 9/4 | vs. Medomak Valley | W 39–8 |
| Thu 9/10 | at Greely | W 30–12 |
| Fri 9/18 | at York | W 51–0 |
| Sat 9/26 | vs. Wells | W 42–0 |
| Fri 10/2 | at Dirigo | this game |
| Fri 10/9 | at Gardiner | |
| Fri 10/16 | vs. Nokomis | |
| Fri 10/23 | at Hermon | |
| Fri 10/30 | vs. Foxcroft |
Dirigo this season
| Fri 9/4 | vs. Poland | W 52–28 |
| Fri 9/11 | vs. Morse | L 15–30 |
| Thu 9/17 | at John Bapst | L 6–18 |
| Fri 9/25 | at Mountain Valley | W 24–6 |
| Fri 10/2 | vs. Leavitt | this game |
| Fri 10/9 | at Winthrop | |
| Fri 10/16 | vs. Freeport | |
| Fri 10/23 | at MCI |
Quick answers
When and where do Leavitt and Dirigo play?
Leavitt plays at Dirigo on Fri, Oct 2, 2026 at 7:00 PM, at Dirigo HS.
Who has the better chance, Leavitt or Dirigo?
Leavitt. Our power rating gives Leavitt an est. 94% chance to win, by est. 27 points.
What is Leavitt's record and Crabtree place?
Leavitt is 4–0 and #2 of 12 in Class C in the Crabtree standings, the MPA's playoff order, recomputed from every result.
What is Dirigo's record and Crabtree place?
Dirigo is 2–2 and #5 of 7 in Class D South in the Crabtree standings, the MPA's playoff order, recomputed from every result.
What does this game mean for Dirigo's playoff seeding?
With a win, Dirigo finishes the week between #2 to #5 in Class D South; with a loss, between #3 to #6, depending on the week's other results.
Can Dirigo still be #3 in Class D South if it loses?
Yes. Even with a loss, Dirigo can finish the week #3 if Morse beats Freeport, Mountain Valley beats Belfast, Poland beats Lisbon, MCI beats Madison, John Bapst beats Foxcroft and Oak Hill beats Winthrop. Our rating puts that at est. under 1%.
What does this game mean for Leavitt's playoff seeding?
With a win, Leavitt finishes the week between #1 to #3 in Class D South; with a loss, between #1 to #5, depending on the week's other results.
Can Leavitt still be #1 in Class D South if it loses?
Yes. Even with a loss, Leavitt can finish the week #1 if York beats Brewer, Wells beats Gardiner, Oceanside beats Hermon, MCI beats Madison and John Bapst beats Foxcroft. Our rating puts that at est. under 1%.
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Win chances come from the niftiIQ power rating, a statistical model built on this season's results; the method is on the About page and its track record on Accuracy. Crabtree places use the MPA's own method, recomputed. Nothing here is advice.