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Leavitt Area Class C
Projected final record 6–3 · projected #2 seed · full projection →. A season-simulation projection, not a prediction.
Want to see how the standings could change? Open the what-if simulator →
Playoff picture · Class C, top 8 qualify · all divisions →
Still in contention. With 5 games to play, Leavitt can finish as high as #1 and as low as #12: the playoff cut runs right through this team.
"Clinched" and "eliminated" are exact: they hold for every possible combination of remaining results. Seeds use the same Crabtree method as the standings. Nothing here is a prediction.
Championship chances · projection, week 4 · all divisions →
Simulated from the power ratings: how often Leavitt wins the bracket across thousands of season runs, not a betting number. A projection, not advice; to win state a team must first win its region.
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/4 | Medomak Valley Class C | W 39–8 | Recap → |
| Thu 9/10 | at Greely Class C | W 30–12 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/18 | at York Class C | W 51–0 | Recap → |
| Sat 9/26 | Wells Class C | W 42–0 | Recap → |
| Fri 10/2 | at Dirigo Class D South | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/9 | at Gardiner Class C | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/16 | Nokomis Class C | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/23 | at Hermon Class C | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/30 | Foxcroft Class C | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
Crabtree, shown step by step
| Opponent played | Their W-L | Counts? |
|---|---|---|
| Medomak Valley | 0-4 | yes |
| Greely | 3-1 | yes |
| York | 0-4 | yes |
| Wells | 2-2 | yes |
Own win% = 4 / 4 = 1.0000
Opponents pooled = 5 wins / 16 games = 0.3125
Crabtree = (1.0000 + 0.3125) × 100 = 131.250
Heal tiebreaker: preliminary index 22.222, tournament index 31.8519 over 9 scheduled games.
niftiIQ power rating
12.6 points vs. an average Maine team (80% band 0.9 to 24.3) · rank #11 among 11-man teams · est. 44% chance of being the top-rated team in Class C, est. 1% in all of 11-man
4 games of evidence; 20% of today's number is still the starting assumption (average C team, +9.5 from where the program finished the last two seasons). A band that touches 0 means the data can't yet separate this team from average. How the rating works →
| Game | Result | Moved the rating |
|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/4 Medomak Valley | W 39–8 | -2.7 |
| Thu 9/10 at Greely | W 30–12 | +3.5 |
| Fri 9/18 at York | W 51–0 | -0.2 |
| Sat 9/26 Wells | W 42–0 | +1.8 |
"Moved the rating" = today's rating minus what it would be if that game had never happened (everything else re-solved). A big number on one game is worth a second look at the score.