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York Class C
Projected final record 4–5 · projected #6 seed · full projection →. A season-simulation projection, not a prediction.
Want to see how the standings could change? Open the what-if simulator →
Playoff picture · Class C, top 8 qualify · all divisions →
Still in contention. With 5 games to play, York can finish as high as #1 and as low as #12: the playoff cut runs right through this team.
"Clinched" and "eliminated" are exact: they hold for every possible combination of remaining results. Seeds use the same Crabtree method as the standings. Nothing here is a prediction.
Games that matter most · if the higher-rated team wins every game, York is the #8 seed
These are the games whose result moves York's seed the most (every other game held at the rating's pick). Each column shows who wins and where York lands.
| Date | Game | York's seed if… | …or if… |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 10/2 | vs Brewer in/out | York wins → #8 in | Brewer wins → #10 out |
| Sat 10/24 | vs Hampden in/out | York wins → #8 in | Hampden wins → #10 out |
| Fri 10/9 | vs Oak Hill in/out | York wins → #8 in | Oak Hill wins → #9 out |
| Sat 10/3 | other game: Greely vs Medomak Valley in/out | Greely wins → #8 in | Medomak Valley wins → #9 out |
| Sat 10/10 | other game: Foxcroft vs Nokomis in/out | Foxcroft wins → #8 in | Nokomis wins → #9 out |
| Fri 10/16 | other game: Nokomis vs Leavitt in/out | Leavitt wins → #8 in | Nokomis wins → #9 out |
York's own games are in bold; "other game" rows are matchups York isn't in but that still move its seed (Crabtree counts opponents' records). Open the full simulator →
Championship chances · projection, week 4 · all divisions →
Simulated from the power ratings: how often York wins the bracket across thousands of season runs, not a betting number. A projection, not advice; to win state a team must first win its region.
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/4 | at Greely Class C | L 0–48 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/11 | Gardiner Class C | L 0–28 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/18 | Leavitt Class C | L 0–51 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/25 | at Oceanside Class C | L 12–14 | Recap → |
| Fri 10/2 | at Brewer Class C | 6:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/9 | Oak Hill Class D North | 6:00 PM | Preview → |
| Sat 10/17 | Wells Class C | 6:00 PM | Preview → |
| Sat 10/24 | at Hampden Class C | 2:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/30 | Hermon Class C | 6:00 PM | Preview → |
Crabtree, shown step by step
| Opponent played | Their W-L | Counts? |
|---|---|---|
| Greely | 3-1 | yes |
| Gardiner | 3-1 | yes |
| Leavitt | 4-0 | yes |
| Oceanside | 3-1 | yes |
Own win% = 0 / 4 = 0.0000
Opponents pooled = 13 wins / 16 games = 0.8125
Crabtree = (0.0000 + 0.8125) × 100 = 81.250
Heal tiebreaker: preliminary index 1.000, tournament index 0.0000 over 9 scheduled games.
niftiIQ power rating
-19.1 points vs. an average Maine team (80% band -30.8 to -7.3) · rank #45 among 11-man teams · est. 0% chance of being the top-rated team in Class C, est. 0% in all of 11-man
4 games of evidence; 20% of today's number is still the starting assumption (average C team, -7.3 from where the program finished the last two seasons). A band that touches 0 means the data can't yet separate this team from average. How the rating works →
| Game | Result | Moved the rating |
|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/4 at Greely | L 0–48 | -0.1 |
| Fri 9/11 Gardiner | L 0–28 | -3.5 |
| Fri 9/18 Leavitt | L 0–51 | +0.3 |
| Fri 9/25 at Oceanside | L 12–14 | +2.9 |
"Moved the rating" = today's rating minus what it would be if that game had never happened (everything else re-solved). A big number on one game is worth a second look at the score.