More
John Bapst/Bangor Christian/Ce Class D North
Projected final record 4–4 · projected #3 seed · full projection →. A season-simulation projection, not a prediction.
Want to see how the standings could change? Open the what-if simulator →
Playoff picture · Class D North, top 6 qualify · all divisions →
Still in contention. With 4 games to play, John Bapst can finish as high as #1 and as low as #7: the playoff cut runs right through this team.
"Clinched" and "eliminated" are exact: they hold for every possible combination of remaining results. Seeds use the same Crabtree method as the standings. Nothing here is a prediction.
Games that matter most · if the higher-rated team wins every game, John Bapst is the #3 seed
These are the games whose result moves John Bapst's seed the most (every other game held at the rating's pick). Each column shows who wins and where John Bapst lands.
| Date | Game | John Bapst's seed if… | …or if… |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 10/16 | vs Mattanawcook | John Bapst wins → #3 in | Mattanawcook wins → #4 in |
John Bapst's own games are in bold; "other game" rows are matchups John Bapst isn't in but that still move its seed (Crabtree counts opponents' records). Open the full simulator →
Championship chances · projection, week 4 · all divisions →
Simulated from the power ratings: how often John Bapst wins the bracket across thousands of season runs, not a betting number. A projection, not advice; to win state a team must first win its region.
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/4 | at Madison Class D North | L 40–46 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/11 | Winslow Class D North | L 6–26 | Recap → |
| Thu 9/17 | Dirigo Class D South | W 18–6 | Recap → |
| Sat 9/26 | at Oak Hill Class D North | W 26–12 | Recap → |
| Fri 10/2 | at Foxcroft Class C | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Sat 10/10 | Mountain Valley Class D South | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/16 | at Mattanawcook Class D North | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Sat 10/24 | Winthrop Class D South | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
Crabtree, shown step by step
| Opponent played | Their W-L | Counts? |
|---|---|---|
| Madison | 1-2 | yes |
| Winslow | 3-1 | yes |
| Dirigo | 2-2 | yes |
| Oak Hill | 1-3 | yes |
Own win% = 2 / 4 = 0.5000
Opponents pooled = 7 wins / 15 games = 0.4667
Crabtree = (0.5000 + 0.4667) × 100 = 96.667
Heal tiebreaker: preliminary index 10.000, tournament index 18.7500 over 8 scheduled games.
niftiIQ power rating
-15.5 points vs. an average Maine team (80% band -27.2 to -3.9) · rank #42 among 11-man teams · est. 12% chance of being the top-rated team in Class D North, est. 0% in all of 11-man
4 games of evidence; 20% of today's number is still the starting assumption (average D team, +2.0 from where the program finished the last two seasons). A band that touches 0 means the data can't yet separate this team from average. How the rating works →
| Game | Result | Moved the rating |
|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/4 at Madison | L 40–46 | -3.2 |
| Fri 9/11 Winslow | L 6–26 | -2.8 |
| Thu 9/17 Dirigo | W 18–6 | +2.4 |
| Sat 9/26 at Oak Hill | W 26–12 | +1.0 |
"Moved the rating" = today's rating minus what it would be if that game had never happened (everything else re-solved). A big number on one game is worth a second look at the score.