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Morse at Freeport
Fri, Oct 2, 2026 · 6:00 PM · Freeport High School
Morse team page Freeport team page What-if simulator
Frozen pick for the weekly picks: Freeport, est. 86%, written Oct 1. The numbers above use today's rating and can differ a little.
After this weekend · Class D South Crabtree
Where Freeport and Morse can land
Places #1 to #7 after this week's games. Dark = possible with a win, light = possible with a loss. The outlined box is where they stand today.
Win: #1 · Loss: #1 to #2
With a win: best is #1
#1 no matter what else happens this week.
Even with a loss: best is #1 est. 35% chance
Has to happen Poland beats Lisbon.
Likeliest way also has Westbrook beats Biddeford; Leavitt beats Dirigo; Winthrop beats Oak Hill.
Win: #1 to #3 · Loss: #2 to #5
With a win: best is #1 est. 65% chance
Has to happen no single other result; there is more than one way.
Likeliest way Biddeford beats Westbrook; Mountain Valley beats Belfast.
Even with a loss: best is #2 est. 5% chance
Has to happen Oak Hill beats Winthrop.
Likeliest way also has Biddeford beats Westbrook; Mountain Valley beats Belfast.
possible with a win possible with a loss place today
Depends on 8 other games this weekend: Winslow at Mattanawcook, Belfast at Mountain Valley, Lisbon at Poland, MCI at Madison, John Bapst at Foxcroft, Westbrook at Biddeford, Leavitt at Dirigo, Winthrop at Oak Hill. Crabtree counts opponents' records, so those results move both teams.
How to read the best-case notes: "Has to happen" results are needed in every way to that place. "Likeliest way" is the most probable route by our rating; other routes can exist. Chances are estimates from our power rating.
Morse this season
| Fri 9/4 | at Mountain Valley | W 16–8 |
| Fri 9/11 | at Dirigo | W 30–15 |
| Fri 9/18 | vs. Biddeford | L 8–26 |
| Fri 9/25 | vs. Lisbon | W 28–8 |
| Fri 10/2 | at Freeport | this game |
| Thu 10/8 | vs. Poland | |
| Sat 10/17 | at Winslow | |
| Fri 10/23 | vs. Belfast |
Freeport this season
| Sat 9/5 | vs. Mattanawcook | W 42–6 |
| Fri 9/11 | vs. Winthrop | W 29–28 |
| Fri 9/18 | at Poland | W 40–6 |
| Sat 9/26 | at Winslow | L 6–14 |
| Fri 10/2 | vs. Morse | this game |
| Thu 10/8 | at Wells | |
| Fri 10/16 | at Dirigo | |
| Fri 10/23 | vs. Lisbon |
Quick answers
When and where do Morse and Freeport play?
Morse plays at Freeport on Fri, Oct 2, 2026 at 6:00 PM, at Freeport High School.
Who has the better chance, Morse or Freeport?
Freeport. Our power rating gives Freeport an est. 79% chance to win, by est. 14 points.
What is Morse's record and Crabtree place?
Morse is 3–1 and #3 of 7 in Class D South in the Crabtree standings, the MPA's playoff order, recomputed from every result.
What is Freeport's record and Crabtree place?
Freeport is 3–1 and #1 of 7 in Class D South in the Crabtree standings, the MPA's playoff order, recomputed from every result.
What does this game mean for Freeport's playoff seeding?
With a win, Freeport finishes the week between #1 in Class D South; with a loss, between #1 to #2, depending on the week's other results.
Can Freeport still be #1 in Class D South if it loses?
Yes. Even with a loss, Freeport can finish the week #1 if Poland beats Lisbon, Westbrook beats Biddeford, Leavitt beats Dirigo and Winthrop beats Oak Hill. Our rating puts that at est. 35%.
What does this game mean for Morse's playoff seeding?
With a win, Morse finishes the week between #1 to #3 in Class D South; with a loss, between #2 to #5, depending on the week's other results.
Can Morse still be #2 in Class D South if it loses?
Yes. Even with a loss, Morse can finish the week #2 if Oak Hill beats Winthrop, Biddeford beats Westbrook and Mountain Valley beats Belfast. Our rating puts that at est. 5%.
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Win chances come from the niftiIQ power rating, a statistical model built on this season's results; the method is on the About page and its track record on Accuracy. Crabtree places use the MPA's own method, recomputed. Nothing here is advice.