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Gardiner at Wells
Fri, Oct 2, 2026 · 6:30 PM · Wells HS - Warrior Field
Gardiner team page Wells team page What-if simulator
Frozen pick for the weekly picks: Gardiner, est. 53%, written Oct 1. The numbers above use today's rating and can differ a little.
After this weekend · Class C Crabtree
Where Wells and Gardiner can land
Places #1 to #12 after this week's games. Dark = possible with a win, light = possible with a loss. The outlined box is where they stand today.
Win: #2 to #6 · Loss: #5 to #7
With a win: best is #2 est. 1% chance
Has to happen Winslow beats Mattanawcook; Oceanside beats Hermon; John Bapst beats Foxcroft.
Likeliest way also has MCI beats Madison; Leavitt beats Dirigo.
Even with a loss: best is #5 est. 9% chance
Has to happen Hermon beats Oceanside; Medomak Valley beats Greely.
Likeliest way also has Winslow beats Mattanawcook.
Win: #2 to #6 · Loss: #5 to #7
With a win: best is #2 est. under 1% chance
Has to happen Brewer beats York; Mountain Valley beats Belfast; Oceanside beats Hermon; Foxcroft beats John Bapst; Dirigo beats Leavitt; Nokomis beats Hampden; Greely beats Medomak Valley.
Even with a loss: best is #5 est. under 1% chance
Has to happen Brewer beats York; Hermon beats Oceanside; Foxcroft beats John Bapst; Dirigo beats Leavitt; Nokomis beats Hampden; Medomak Valley beats Greely.
possible with a win possible with a loss place today
Depends on 10 other games this weekend, including Winslow at Mattanawcook, Belfast at Mountain Valley, Hermon at Oceanside, MCI at Madison, John Bapst at Foxcroft, York at Brewer and 4 more. Crabtree counts opponents' records, so those results move both teams.
How to read the best-case notes: "Has to happen" results are needed in every way to that place. "Likeliest way" is the most probable route by our rating; other routes can exist. Chances are estimates from our power rating.
Worth knowing
- Gardiner won 1 of the last 2 meetings
Gardiner this season
| Fri 9/4 | vs. Nokomis | W 37–6 |
| Fri 9/11 | at York | W 28–0 |
| Fri 9/18 | at Foxcroft | L 0–28 |
| Fri 9/25 | vs. Brewer | W 42–20 |
| Fri 10/2 | at Wells | this game |
| Fri 10/9 | vs. Leavitt | |
| Sat 10/17 | at Medomak Valley | |
| Fri 10/23 | vs. Cony | |
| Fri 10/30 | vs. Greely |
Wells this season
| Fri 9/4 | vs. Winslow | W 14–13 |
| Fri 9/11 | at Medomak Valley | W 21–8 |
| Fri 9/18 | vs. Greely | L 14–34 |
| Sat 9/26 | at Leavitt | L 0–42 |
| Fri 10/2 | vs. Gardiner | this game |
| Thu 10/8 | vs. Freeport | |
| Sat 10/17 | at York | |
| Sat 10/24 | at Nokomis | |
| Fri 10/30 | vs. Hampden |
Recent meetings
| 2025 | Wells 14, Gardiner 12 |
| 2025 | Wells 26, Gardiner 28 |
From the past seasons in our records.
Quick answers
When and where do Gardiner and Wells play?
Gardiner plays at Wells on Fri, Oct 2, 2026 at 6:30 PM, at Wells HS - Warrior Field.
Who has the better chance, Gardiner or Wells?
It is close to even: our power rating gives Gardiner an est. 52% chance to win, a projected margin of est. 1 point.
What is Gardiner's record and Crabtree place?
Gardiner is 3–1 and #6 of 12 in Class C in the Crabtree standings, the MPA's playoff order, recomputed from every result.
What is Wells's record and Crabtree place?
Wells is 2–2 and #5 of 12 in Class C in the Crabtree standings, the MPA's playoff order, recomputed from every result.
What does this game mean for Wells's playoff seeding?
With a win, Wells finishes the week between #2 to #6 in Class C; with a loss, between #5 to #7, depending on the week's other results.
Can Wells still be #5 in Class C if it loses?
Yes. Even with a loss, Wells can finish the week #5 if Hermon beats Oceanside, Medomak Valley beats Greely and Winslow beats Mattanawcook. Our rating puts that at est. 9%.
What does this game mean for Gardiner's playoff seeding?
With a win, Gardiner finishes the week between #2 to #6 in Class C; with a loss, between #5 to #7, depending on the week's other results.
Can Gardiner still be #5 in Class C if it loses?
Yes. Even with a loss, Gardiner can finish the week #5 if Brewer beats York, Hermon beats Oceanside, Foxcroft beats John Bapst, Dirigo beats Leavitt, Nokomis beats Hampden and Medomak Valley beats Greely. Our rating puts that at est. under 1%.
Who won the last meeting between Gardiner and Wells?
Wells won the last meeting in our records, 14–12 in 2025.
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Win chances come from the niftiIQ power rating, a statistical model built on this season's results; the method is on the About page and its track record on Accuracy. Crabtree places use the MPA's own method, recomputed. Nothing here is advice.