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Marshwood at Falmouth
Fri, Oct 2, 2026 · 6:30 PM · Falmouth High School
Marshwood team page Falmouth team page What-if simulator
Frozen pick for the weekly picks: Falmouth, est. 57%, written Oct 1. The numbers above use today's rating and can differ a little.
After this weekend · Class B South Crabtree
Where Falmouth and Marshwood can land
Places #1 to #7 after this week's games. Dark = possible with a win, light = possible with a loss. The outlined box is where they stand today.
Win: #1 to #3 · Loss: #3 to #5
With a win: best is #1 est. 92% chance
Has to happen no single other result; there is more than one way.
Likeliest way Cheverus beats Gorham.
Even with a loss: best is #3 est. 23% chance
Has to happen no single other result; there is more than one way.
Likeliest way Westbrook beats Biddeford; Portland beats Thornton.
Win: #1 · Loss: #1 to #4
With a win: best is #1
#1 no matter what else happens this week.
Even with a loss: best is #1 est. under 1% chance
Has to happen Gorham beats Cheverus.
Likeliest way also has Westbrook beats Biddeford; Deering beats Kennebunk; Noble beats Massabesic.
possible with a win possible with a loss place today
Depends on 9 other games this weekend, including South Portland at Sanford, Morse at Freeport, Noble at Massabesic, Westbrook at Biddeford, Cony at Lawrence, Deering at Kennebunk and 3 more. Crabtree counts opponents' records, so those results move both teams.
How to read the best-case notes: "Has to happen" results are needed in every way to that place. "Likeliest way" is the most probable route by our rating; other routes can exist. Chances are estimates from our power rating.
Worth knowing
- Both played Westbrook: Falmouth won by 4, Marshwood won by 8
- Marshwood has won 4 straight
Marshwood this season
| Thu 9/3 | at Sanford | W 50–27 |
| Fri 9/11 | vs. Westbrook | W 8–0 |
| Fri 9/18 | at Gorham | W 32–12 |
| Fri 9/25 | vs. Noble | W 52–51 |
| Fri 10/2 | at Falmouth | this game |
| Sat 10/10 | at Cheverus | |
| Fri 10/16 | vs. Biddeford | |
| Fri 10/23 | vs. Kennebunk |
Falmouth this season
| Thu 9/3 | at Kennebunk | L 28–33 |
| Sat 9/12 | at Cheverus | L 25–37 |
| Fri 9/18 | vs. Westbrook | W 22–18 |
| Fri 9/25 | vs. Biddeford | W 38–14 |
| Fri 10/2 | vs. Marshwood | this game |
| Fri 10/9 | at Gorham | |
| Fri 10/16 | at Windham | |
| Fri 10/23 | vs. Greely |
Recent meetings
| 2025 | Falmouth 28, Marshwood 33 |
From the past seasons in our records.
Quick answers
When and where do Marshwood and Falmouth play?
Marshwood plays at Falmouth on Fri, Oct 2, 2026 at 6:30 PM, at Falmouth High School.
Who has the better chance, Marshwood or Falmouth?
Falmouth. Our power rating gives Falmouth an est. 56% chance to win, by est. 2 points.
What is Marshwood's record and Crabtree place?
Marshwood is 4–0 and #1 of 7 in Class B South in the Crabtree standings, the MPA's playoff order, recomputed from every result.
What is Falmouth's record and Crabtree place?
Falmouth is 2–2 and #4 of 7 in Class B South in the Crabtree standings, the MPA's playoff order, recomputed from every result.
What does this game mean for Falmouth's playoff seeding?
With a win, Falmouth finishes the week between #1 to #3 in Class B South; with a loss, between #3 to #5, depending on the week's other results.
Can Falmouth still be #3 in Class B South if it loses?
Yes. Even with a loss, Falmouth can finish the week #3 if Westbrook beats Biddeford and Portland beats Thornton. Our rating puts that at est. 23%.
What does this game mean for Marshwood's playoff seeding?
With a win, Marshwood finishes the week between #1 in Class B South; with a loss, between #1 to #4, depending on the week's other results.
Can Marshwood still be #1 in Class B South if it loses?
Yes. Even with a loss, Marshwood can finish the week #1 if Gorham beats Cheverus, Westbrook beats Biddeford, Deering beats Kennebunk and Noble beats Massabesic. Our rating puts that at est. under 1%.
Who won the last meeting between Marshwood and Falmouth?
Marshwood won the last meeting in our records, 33–28 in 2025.
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Win chances come from the niftiIQ power rating, a statistical model built on this season's results; the method is on the About page and its track record on Accuracy. Crabtree places use the MPA's own method, recomputed. Nothing here is advice.