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Oxford Hills/Buckfield Coop Class A North
Projected final record 5–3 · projected #1 seed · full projection →. A season-simulation projection, not a prediction.
Want to see how the standings could change? Open the what-if simulator →
Playoff picture · Class A North, top 4 qualify · all divisions →
Still in contention. With 5 games to play, Oxford Hills can finish as high as #1 and as low as #7: the playoff cut runs right through this team.
"Clinched" and "eliminated" are exact: they hold for every possible combination of remaining results. Seeds use the same Crabtree method as the standings. Nothing here is a prediction.
Games that matter most · if the higher-rated team wins every game, Oxford Hills is the #1 seed
These are the games whose result moves Oxford Hills's seed the most (every other game held at the rating's pick). Each column shows who wins and where Oxford Hills lands.
| Date | Game | Oxford Hills's seed if… | …or if… |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 10/2 | vs Lewiston | Oxford Hills wins → #1 in | Lewiston wins → #2 in |
| Sat 10/17 | vs Portland | Oxford Hills wins → #1 in | Portland wins → #2 in |
| Fri 10/23 | vs Noble | Oxford Hills wins → #1 in | Noble wins → #2 in |
| Fri 10/30 | vs Bangor | Oxford Hills wins → #1 in | Bangor wins → #2 in |
| Sat 10/3 | other game: Portland vs Thornton | Thornton wins → #1 in | Portland wins → #2 in |
Oxford Hills's own games are in bold; "other game" rows are matchups Oxford Hills isn't in but that still move its seed (Crabtree counts opponents' records). Open the full simulator →
Championship chances · projection, week 4 · all divisions →
Simulated from the power ratings: how often Oxford Hills wins the bracket across thousands of season runs, not a betting number. A projection, not advice; to win state a team must first win its region.
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/4 | at Windham Class A North | W 34–14 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/11 | Deering Class A North | W 42–0 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/18 | Edward Little Class A North | W 28–7 | Recap → |
| Fri 10/2 | at Lewiston Class A North | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/9 | at Bonny Eagle Class A South | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Sat 10/17 | Portland Class A North | 12:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/23 | Noble Class A South | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/30 | at Bangor Class A North | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
Crabtree, shown step by step
| Opponent played | Their W-L | Counts? |
|---|---|---|
| Windham | 2-2 | yes |
| Deering | 1-3 | yes |
| Edward Little | 1-2 | yes |
Own win% = 3 / 3 = 1.0000
Opponents pooled = 4 wins / 11 games = 0.3636
Crabtree = (1.0000 + 0.3636) × 100 = 136.364
Heal tiebreaker: preliminary index 26.250, tournament index 40.1042 over 8 scheduled games.
niftiIQ power rating
22.8 points vs. an average Maine team (80% band 10.4 to 35.3) · rank #4 among 11-man teams · est. 39% chance of being the top-rated team in Class A North, est. 7% in all of 11-man
3 games of evidence; 25% of today's number is still the starting assumption (average A team, -0.0 from where the program finished the last two seasons). A band that touches 0 means the data can't yet separate this team from average. How the rating works →
| Game | Result | Moved the rating |
|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/4 at Windham | W 34–14 | +4.1 |
| Fri 9/11 Deering | W 42–0 | -0.4 |
| Fri 9/18 Edward Little | W 28–7 | +1.1 |
"Moved the rating" = today's rating minus what it would be if that game had never happened (everything else re-solved). A big number on one game is worth a second look at the score.