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Deering Class A North
Projected final record 4–5 · projected #5 seed · full projection →. A season-simulation projection, not a prediction.
Want to see how the standings could change? Open the what-if simulator →
Playoff picture · Class A North, top 4 qualify · all divisions →
Still in contention. With 5 games to play, Deering can finish as high as #1 and as low as #7: the playoff cut runs right through this team.
"Clinched" and "eliminated" are exact: they hold for every possible combination of remaining results. Seeds use the same Crabtree method as the standings. Nothing here is a prediction.
Championship chances · projection, week 4 · all divisions →
Simulated from the power ratings: how often Deering wins the bracket across thousands of season runs, not a betting number. A projection, not advice; to win state a team must first win its region.
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/4 | Edward Little Class A North | L 14–46 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/11 | at Oxford Hills Class A North | L 0–42 | Recap → |
| Sat 9/19 | Bangor Class A North | L 13–32 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/25 | Lewiston Class A North | W 26–6 | Recap → |
| Fri 10/2 | at Kennebunk Class B South | 6:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/9 | at Westbrook Class B South | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/16 | Cheverus Class B South | 6:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/23 | at Portland Class A North | 6:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/30 | Windham Class A North | 6:00 PM | Preview → |
Crabtree, shown step by step
| Opponent played | Their W-L | Counts? |
|---|---|---|
| Edward Little | 1-2 | yes |
| Oxford Hills | 3-0 | yes |
| Bangor | 2-2 | yes |
| Lewiston | 0-4 | yes |
Own win% = 1 / 4 = 0.2500
Opponents pooled = 6 wins / 14 games = 0.4286
Crabtree = (0.2500 + 0.4286) × 100 = 67.857
Heal tiebreaker: preliminary index 7.778, tournament index 1.1111 over 9 scheduled games.
niftiIQ power rating
-3.6 points vs. an average Maine team (80% band -15.3 to 8.2) · rank #32 among 11-man teams · est. 0% chance of being the top-rated team in Class A North, est. 0% in all of 11-man
4 games of evidence; 20% of today's number is still the starting assumption (average A team, -0.7 from where the program finished the last two seasons). A band that touches 0 means the data can't yet separate this team from average. How the rating works →
| Game | Result | Moved the rating |
|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/4 Edward Little | L 14–46 | -4.8 |
| Fri 9/11 at Oxford Hills | L 0–42 | +0.3 |
| Sat 9/19 Bangor | L 13–32 | -1.9 |
| Fri 9/25 Lewiston | W 26–6 | +3.0 |
"Moved the rating" = today's rating minus what it would be if that game had never happened (everything else re-solved). A big number on one game is worth a second look at the score.