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Thornton Academy Class A South
Projected final record 6–3 · projected #2 seed · full projection →. A season-simulation projection, not a prediction.
Want to see how the standings could change? Open the what-if simulator →
Playoff picture · Class A South, top 4 qualify · all divisions →
Still in contention. With 5 games to play, Thornton can finish as high as #1 and as low as #7: the playoff cut runs right through this team.
"Clinched" and "eliminated" are exact: they hold for every possible combination of remaining results. Seeds use the same Crabtree method as the standings. Nothing here is a prediction.
Games that matter most · if the higher-rated team wins every game, Thornton is the #1 seed
These are the games whose result moves Thornton's seed the most (every other game held at the rating's pick). Each column shows who wins and where Thornton lands.
| Date | Game | Thornton's seed if… | …or if… |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 10/3 | vs Portland | Thornton wins → #1 in | Portland wins → #2 in |
| Fri 10/9 | vs Noble | Thornton wins → #1 in | Noble wins → #2 in |
| Fri 10/16 | vs Sanford | Thornton wins → #1 in | Sanford wins → #2 in |
| Sat 10/24 | vs Bonny Eagle | Thornton wins → #1 in | Bonny Eagle wins → #2 in |
| Fri 10/30 | vs Massabesic | Thornton wins → #1 in | Massabesic wins → #2 in |
Thornton's own games are in bold; "other game" rows are matchups Thornton isn't in but that still move its seed (Crabtree counts opponents' records). Open the full simulator →
Championship chances · projection, week 4 · all divisions →
Simulated from the power ratings: how often Thornton wins the bracket across thousands of season runs, not a betting number. A projection, not advice; to win state a team must first win its region.
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/4 | Scarborough Class A South | W 56–0 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/11 | at South Portland Class A South | W 35–21 | Recap → |
| Sat 9/19 | Bedford (NH) non-MPA | W 49–7 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/25 | at Westbrook Class B South | W 42–0 | Recap → |
| Sat 10/3 | Portland Class A North | 1:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/9 | at Noble Class A South | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/16 | Sanford Class A South | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Sat 10/24 | Bonny Eagle Class A South | 1:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/30 | at Massabesic Class A South | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
Crabtree, shown step by step
| Opponent played | Their W-L | Counts? |
|---|---|---|
| Scarborough | 0-4 | yes |
| South Portland | 2-2 | yes |
| Bedford (NH) | 0-1 | 0-0 (non-MPA) |
| Westbrook | 1-3 | yes |
Own win% = 4 / 4 = 1.0000
Opponents pooled = 3 wins / 12 games = 0.2500
Crabtree = (1.0000 + 0.2500) × 100 = 125.000
Heal tiebreaker: preliminary index 22.222, tournament index 25.4938 over 9 scheduled games.
niftiIQ power rating
34.0 points vs. an average Maine team (80% band 23.3 to 44.7) · rank #1 among 11-man teams · est. 56% chance of being the top-rated team in Class A South, est. 44% in all of 11-man
4 games of evidence; 20% of today's number is still the starting assumption (average A team, +17.7 from where the program finished the last two seasons). A band that touches 0 means the data can't yet separate this team from average. How the rating works →
| Game | Result | Moved the rating |
|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/4 Scarborough | W 56–0 | -0.8 |
| Fri 9/11 at South Portland | W 35–21 | +0.3 |
| Sat 9/19 Bedford (NH) | W 49–7 | -1.1 |
| Fri 9/25 at Westbrook | W 42–0 | +3.7 |
"Moved the rating" = today's rating minus what it would be if that game had never happened (everything else re-solved). A big number on one game is worth a second look at the score.