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Lawrence Class B North
Projected final record 4–4 · projected #4 seed · full projection →. A season-simulation projection, not a prediction.
Want to see how the standings could change? Open the what-if simulator →
Playoff picture · Class B North, top 6 qualify · all divisions →
Still in contention. With 4 games to play, Lawrence can finish as high as #1 and as low as #8: the playoff cut runs right through this team.
"Clinched" and "eliminated" are exact: they hold for every possible combination of remaining results. Seeds use the same Crabtree method as the standings. Nothing here is a prediction.
Games that matter most · if the higher-rated team wins every game, Lawrence is the #1 seed
These are the games whose result moves Lawrence's seed the most (every other game held at the rating's pick). Each column shows who wins and where Lawrence lands.
| Date | Game | Lawrence's seed if… | …or if… |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 10/2 | vs Cony | Lawrence wins → #1 in | Cony wins → #2 in |
| Fri 10/9 | vs Brunswick | Lawrence wins → #1 in | Brunswick wins → #2 in |
| Sat 10/17 | vs Camden Hills | Lawrence wins → #1 in | Camden Hills wins → #2 in |
| Fri 10/23 | vs Messalonskee | Lawrence wins → #1 in | Messalonskee wins → #2 in |
Lawrence's own games are in bold; "other game" rows are matchups Lawrence isn't in but that still move its seed (Crabtree counts opponents' records). Open the full simulator →
Championship chances · projection, week 4 · all divisions →
Simulated from the power ratings: how often Lawrence wins the bracket across thousands of season runs, not a betting number. A projection, not advice; to win state a team must first win its region.
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 9/3 | at Gorham Class B South | W 48–0 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/11 | Fryeburg Class B North | W 27–14 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/18 | at Skowhegan Class B North | W 29–13 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/25 | at Mt. Blue Class B North | W 49–6 | Recap → |
| Fri 10/2 | Cony Class B North | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/9 | Brunswick Class B North | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Sat 10/17 | at Camden Hills Class B North | 1:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/23 | Messalonskee Class B North | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
Crabtree, shown step by step
| Opponent played | Their W-L | Counts? |
|---|---|---|
| Gorham | 0-4 | yes |
| Fryeburg | 2-2 | yes |
| Skowhegan | 2-2 | yes |
| Mt. Blue | 1-3 | yes |
Own win% = 4 / 4 = 1.0000
Opponents pooled = 5 wins / 16 games = 0.3125
Crabtree = (1.0000 + 0.3125) × 100 = 131.250
Heal tiebreaker: preliminary index 30.000, tournament index 48.1250 over 8 scheduled games.
niftiIQ power rating
19.4 points vs. an average Maine team (80% band 8.0 to 30.7) · rank #6 among 11-man teams · est. 50% chance of being the top-rated team in Class B North, est. 4% in all of 11-man
4 games of evidence; 20% of today's number is still the starting assumption (average B team, -0.9 from where the program finished the last two seasons). A band that touches 0 means the data can't yet separate this team from average. How the rating works →
| Game | Result | Moved the rating |
|---|---|---|
| Thu 9/3 at Gorham | W 48–0 | +0.6 |
| Fri 9/11 Fryeburg | W 27–14 | +1.2 |
| Fri 9/18 at Skowhegan | W 29–13 | +0.3 |
| Fri 9/25 at Mt. Blue | W 49–6 | +2.7 |
"Moved the rating" = today's rating minus what it would be if that game had never happened (everything else re-solved). A big number on one game is worth a second look at the score.