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Gray-New Gloucester 8-Man Large South
Projected final record 2–5 · projected #6 seed · full projection →. A season-simulation projection, not a prediction.
Want to see how the standings could change? Open the what-if simulator →
Playoff picture · 8-Man Large South, top 4 qualify · all divisions →
Still in contention. With 4 games to play, Gray-NG can finish as high as #1 and as low as #6: the playoff cut runs right through this team.
"Clinched" and "eliminated" are exact: they hold for every possible combination of remaining results. Seeds use the same Crabtree method as the standings. Nothing here is a prediction.
Games that matter most · if the higher-rated team wins every game, Gray-NG is the #4 seed
These are the games whose result moves Gray-NG's seed the most (every other game held at the rating's pick). Each column shows who wins and where Gray-NG lands.
| Date | Game | Gray-NG's seed if… | …or if… |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 10/3 | vs Lake Region in/out | Gray-NG wins → #4 in | Lake Region wins → #5 out |
| Fri 10/23 | vs Yarmouth | Gray-NG wins → #3 in | Yarmouth wins → #4 in |
| Fri 10/2 | other game: Cape Elizabeth vs Waterville | Waterville wins → #3 in | Cape Elizabeth wins → #4 in |
| Fri 10/16 | other game: Lake Region vs Cape Elizabeth | Lake Region wins → #3 in | Cape Elizabeth wins → #4 in |
| Sat 10/24 | other game: Houlton vs Cape Elizabeth | Houlton wins → #3 in | Cape Elizabeth wins → #4 in |
Gray-NG's own games are in bold; "other game" rows are matchups Gray-NG isn't in but that still move its seed (Crabtree counts opponents' records). Open the full simulator →
Championship chances · projection, week 4 · all divisions →
Simulated from the power ratings: how often Gray-NG wins the bracket across thousands of season runs, not a betting number. A projection, not advice; to win state a team must first win its region.
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/4 | at Cape Elizabeth 8-Man Large South | L 20–42 | Recap → |
| Sat 9/12 | Madawaska non-MPA | canceled | Preview → |
| Fri 9/18 | at Sacopee Valley 8-Man Small South | W 44–6 | Recap → |
| Sat 9/26 | at Washington Academy 8-Man Small North | W 37–26 | Recap → |
| Sat 10/3 | Lake Region 8-Man Large South | 5:30 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/9 | Mount View 8-Man Small South | 6:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/16 | Mt. Ararat 8-Man Large South | 6:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/23 | at Yarmouth 8-Man Large South | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
Crabtree, shown step by step
| Opponent played | Their W-L | Counts? |
|---|---|---|
| Cape Elizabeth | 3-1 | yes |
| Sacopee Valley | 0-4 | yes |
| Washington Academy | 3-1 | yes |
Own win% = 2 / 3 = 0.6667
Opponents pooled = 6 wins / 12 games = 0.5000
Crabtree = (0.6667 + 0.5000) × 100 = 116.667
Heal tiebreaker: preliminary index 5.714, tournament index 13.9286 over 7 scheduled games.
niftiIQ power rating
5.2 points vs. an average Maine team (80% band -7.3 to 17.7) · rank #9 among 8-man teams · est. 1% chance of being the top-rated team in 8-Man Large South, est. 0% in all of 8-man
3 games of evidence; 25% of today's number is still the starting assumption (average 8L team, +2.4 from where the program finished the last two seasons). A band that touches 0 means the data can't yet separate this team from average. How the rating works →
| Game | Result | Moved the rating |
|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/4 at Cape Elizabeth | L 20–42 | -6.7 |
| Fri 9/18 at Sacopee Valley | W 44–6 | +3.5 |
| Sat 9/26 at Washington Academy | W 37–26 | +5.3 |
"Moved the rating" = today's rating minus what it would be if that game had never happened (everything else re-solved). A big number on one game is worth a second look at the score.