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Cape Elizabeth 8-Man Large South
Projected final record 5–3 · projected #4 seed · full projection →. A season-simulation projection, not a prediction.
Want to see how the standings could change? Open the what-if simulator →
Playoff picture · 8-Man Large South, top 4 qualify · all divisions →
Still in contention. With 4 games to play, Cape Elizabeth can finish as high as #1 and as low as #6: the playoff cut runs right through this team.
"Clinched" and "eliminated" are exact: they hold for every possible combination of remaining results. Seeds use the same Crabtree method as the standings. Nothing here is a prediction.
Games that matter most · if the higher-rated team wins every game, Cape Elizabeth is the #3 seed
These are the games whose result moves Cape Elizabeth's seed the most (every other game held at the rating's pick). Each column shows who wins and where Cape Elizabeth lands.
| Date | Game | Cape Elizabeth's seed if… | …or if… |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 10/2 | vs Waterville | Cape Elizabeth wins → #3 in | Waterville wins → #4 in |
| Fri 10/9 | vs Spruce Mountain | Cape Elizabeth wins → #2 in | Spruce Mountain wins → #3 in |
| Fri 10/16 | vs Lake Region | Cape Elizabeth wins → #3 in | Lake Region wins → #4 in |
| Sat 10/24 | vs Houlton | Cape Elizabeth wins → #3 in | Houlton wins → #4 in |
| Fri 10/23 | other game: Gray-NG vs Yarmouth | Yarmouth wins → #3 in | Gray-NG wins → #4 in |
Cape Elizabeth's own games are in bold; "other game" rows are matchups Cape Elizabeth isn't in but that still move its seed (Crabtree counts opponents' records). Open the full simulator →
Championship chances · projection, week 4 · all divisions →
Simulated from the power ratings: how often Cape Elizabeth wins the bracket across thousands of season runs, not a betting number. A projection, not advice; to win state a team must first win its region.
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/4 | Gray-NG 8-Man Large South | W 42–20 | Recap → |
| Sat 9/12 | at Mount View 8-Man Small South | W 66–14 | Recap → |
| Sat 9/19 | at Yarmouth 8-Man Large South | L 40–82 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/25 | Telstar 8-Man Small South | W 40–36 | Recap → |
| Fri 10/2 | at Waterville 8-Man Large North | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/9 | at Spruce Mountain 8-Man Large South | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/16 | Lake Region 8-Man Large South | 6:30 PM | Preview → |
| Sat 10/24 | Houlton 8-Man Large North | 1:00 PM | Preview → |
Crabtree, shown step by step
| Opponent played | Their W-L | Counts? |
|---|---|---|
| Gray-NG | 2-1 | yes |
| Mount View | 0-3 | yes |
| Yarmouth | 4-0 | yes |
| Telstar | 1-3 | yes |
Own win% = 3 / 4 = 0.7500
Opponents pooled = 7 wins / 14 games = 0.5000
Crabtree = (0.7500 + 0.5000) × 100 = 125.000
Heal tiebreaker: preliminary index 8.750, tournament index 11.5179 over 8 scheduled games.
niftiIQ power rating
6.1 points vs. an average Maine team (80% band -5.8 to 18.1) · rank #8 among 8-man teams · est. 1% chance of being the top-rated team in 8-Man Large South, est. 1% in all of 8-man
4 games of evidence; 20% of today's number is still the starting assumption (average 8L team, -5.6 from where the program finished the last two seasons). A band that touches 0 means the data can't yet separate this team from average. How the rating works →
| Game | Result | Moved the rating |
|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/4 Gray-NG | W 42–20 | +5.7 |
| Sat 9/12 at Mount View | W 66–14 | -1.9 |
| Sat 9/19 at Yarmouth | L 40–82 | +0.3 |
| Fri 9/25 Telstar | W 40–36 | -1.1 |
"Moved the rating" = today's rating minus what it would be if that game had never happened (everything else re-solved). A big number on one game is worth a second look at the score.