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Cape Elizabeth at Waterville
Fri, Oct 2, 2026 · 7:00 PM · Colby College
Cape Elizabeth team page Waterville team page What-if simulator
Frozen pick for the weekly picks: Cape Elizabeth, est. 95%, written Oct 1. The numbers above use today's rating and can differ a little.
After this weekend · 8-Man Large North Crabtree
Where Waterville and Cape Elizabeth can land
Places #1 to #5 after this week's games. Dark = possible with a win, light = possible with a loss. The outlined box is where they stand today.
Win: #2 to #5 · Loss: #4 to #5
With a win: best is #2 est. under 1% chance
Has to happen Ellsworth beats Mt. Ararat; Houlton beats Old Town; Boothbay beats OOB; Yarmouth beats MDI.
Likeliest way also has Spruce Mountain beats Orono.
Even with a loss: best is #4 est. 87% chance
Has to happen no single other result; there is more than one way.
Likeliest way Ellsworth beats Mt. Ararat; Old Town beats Houlton.
Win: #2 to #3 · Loss: #2 to #5
With a win: best is #2 est. 95% chance
Has to happen no single other result; there is more than one way.
Even with a loss: best is #2 est. 21% chance
Has to happen no single other result; there is more than one way.
Likeliest way Traip beats Sacopee Valley; Orono beats Spruce Mountain; Stearns beats Washington Academy; Telstar beats Maranacook; Yarmouth beats MDI.
possible with a win possible with a loss place today
Depends on 10 other games this weekend, including Sacopee Valley at Traip, Mt. Ararat at Ellsworth, Washington Academy at Stearns, Spruce Mountain at Orono, Old Town at Houlton, OOB at Boothbay and 4 more. Crabtree counts opponents' records, so those results move both teams.
How to read the best-case notes: "Has to happen" results are needed in every way to that place. "Likeliest way" is the most probable route by our rating; other routes can exist. Chances are estimates from our power rating.
Worth knowing
- Both played Mount View: Waterville won by 14, Cape Elizabeth won by 52
- Waterville has lost 3 straight
Cape Elizabeth this season
| Fri 9/4 | vs. Gray-NG | W 42–20 |
| Sat 9/12 | at Mount View | W 66–14 |
| Sat 9/19 | at Yarmouth | L 40–82 |
| Fri 9/25 | vs. Telstar | W 40–36 |
| Fri 10/2 | at Waterville | this game |
| Fri 10/9 | at Spruce Mountain | |
| Fri 10/16 | vs. Lake Region | |
| Sat 10/24 | vs. Houlton |
Waterville this season
| Sat 9/5 | vs. Mount View | W 32–18 |
| Fri 9/11 | at Ellsworth | L 0–50 |
| Fri 9/18 | at Boothbay | L 8–30 |
| Sat 9/26 | vs. MDI | L 16–44 |
| Fri 10/2 | vs. Cape Elizabeth | this game |
| Sat 10/10 | at Houlton | |
| Fri 10/16 | at Old Town | |
| Sat 10/24 | vs. Washington Academy |
Quick answers
When and where do Cape Elizabeth and Waterville play?
Cape Elizabeth plays at Waterville on Fri, Oct 2, 2026 at 7:00 PM, at Colby College.
Who has the better chance, Cape Elizabeth or Waterville?
Cape Elizabeth. Our power rating gives Cape Elizabeth an est. 90% chance to win, by est. 21 points.
What is Cape Elizabeth's record and Crabtree place?
Cape Elizabeth is 3–1 and #2 of 6 in 8-Man Large South in the Crabtree standings, the MPA's playoff order, recomputed from every result.
What is Waterville's record and Crabtree place?
Waterville is 1–3 and #4 of 5 in 8-Man Large North in the Crabtree standings, the MPA's playoff order, recomputed from every result.
What does this game mean for Waterville's playoff seeding?
With a win, Waterville finishes the week between #2 to #5 in 8-Man Large North; with a loss, between #4 to #5, depending on the week's other results.
Can Waterville still be #4 in 8-Man Large North if it loses?
Yes. Even with a loss, Waterville can finish the week #4 if Ellsworth beats Mt. Ararat and Old Town beats Houlton. Our rating puts that at est. 87%.
What does this game mean for Cape Elizabeth's playoff seeding?
With a win, Cape Elizabeth finishes the week between #2 to #3 in 8-Man Large North; with a loss, between #2 to #5, depending on the week's other results.
Can Cape Elizabeth still be #2 in 8-Man Large North if it loses?
Yes. Even with a loss, Cape Elizabeth can finish the week #2 if Traip beats Sacopee Valley, Orono beats Spruce Mountain, Stearns beats Washington Academy, Telstar beats Maranacook and Yarmouth beats MDI. Our rating puts that at est. 21%.
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Win chances come from the niftiIQ power rating, a statistical model built on this season's results; the method is on the About page and its track record on Accuracy. Crabtree places use the MPA's own method, recomputed. Nothing here is advice.