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Houlton/Hodgdon/SA/GHCA Coop 8-Man Large North
Projected final record 3–5 · projected #3 seed · full projection →. A season-simulation projection, not a prediction.
Want to see how the standings could change? Open the what-if simulator →
Playoff picture · 8-Man Large North, top 4 qualify · all divisions →
Still in contention. With 4 games to play, Houlton can finish as high as #1 and as low as #5: the playoff cut runs right through this team.
"Clinched" and "eliminated" are exact: they hold for every possible combination of remaining results. Seeds use the same Crabtree method as the standings. Nothing here is a prediction.
Games that matter most · if the higher-rated team wins every game, Houlton is the #4 seed
These are the games whose result moves Houlton's seed the most (every other game held at the rating's pick). Each column shows who wins and where Houlton lands.
| Date | Game | Houlton's seed if… | …or if… |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 10/10 | vs Waterville in/out | Houlton wins → #4 in | Waterville wins → #5 out |
| Fri 10/2 | other game: Cape Elizabeth vs Waterville in/out | Cape Elizabeth wins → #4 in | Waterville wins → #5 out |
| Fri 10/16 | other game: Waterville vs Old Town in/out | Old Town wins → #4 in | Waterville wins → #5 out |
| Sat 10/24 | other game: Washington Academy vs Waterville in/out | Washington Academy wins → #4 in | Waterville wins → #5 out |
| Sat 10/17 | vs MDI | Houlton wins → #3 in | MDI wins → #4 in |
Houlton's own games are in bold; "other game" rows are matchups Houlton isn't in but that still move its seed (Crabtree counts opponents' records). Open the full simulator →
Championship chances · projection, week 4 · all divisions →
Simulated from the power ratings: how often Houlton wins the bracket across thousands of season runs, not a betting number. A projection, not advice; to win state a team must first win its region.
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/4 | at Washington Academy 8-Man Small North | L 14–36 | Recap → |
| Sat 9/12 | Stearns 8-Man Small North | L 0–56 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/18 | Ellsworth 8-Man Large North | L 14–50 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/25 | at Dexter 8-Man Small North | L 13–20 | Recap → |
| Fri 10/2 | Old Town 8-Man Large North | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Sat 10/10 | Waterville 8-Man Large North | 1:00 PM | Preview → |
| Sat 10/17 | at MDI 8-Man Large North | 1:00 PM | Preview → |
| Sat 10/24 | at Cape Elizabeth 8-Man Large South | 1:00 PM | Preview → |
Crabtree, shown step by step
| Opponent played | Their W-L | Counts? |
|---|---|---|
| Washington Academy | 3-1 | yes |
| Stearns | 4-0 | yes |
| Ellsworth | 3-1 | yes |
| Dexter | 1-3 | yes |
Own win% = 0 / 4 = 0.0000
Opponents pooled = 11 wins / 16 games = 0.6875
Crabtree = (0.0000 + 0.6875) × 100 = 68.750
Heal tiebreaker: preliminary index 1.000, tournament index 0.0000 over 8 scheduled games.
niftiIQ power rating
-13.6 points vs. an average Maine team (80% band -25.6 to -1.6) · rank #18 among 8-man teams · est. 0% chance of being the top-rated team in 8-Man Large North, est. 0% in all of 8-man
4 games of evidence; 20% of today's number is still the starting assumption (average 8L team, +0.4 from where the program finished the last two seasons). A band that touches 0 means the data can't yet separate this team from average. How the rating works →
| Game | Result | Moved the rating |
|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/4 at Washington Academy | L 14–36 | -0.5 |
| Sat 9/12 Stearns | L 0–56 | -0.1 |
| Fri 9/18 Ellsworth | L 14–50 | -2.5 |
| Fri 9/25 at Dexter | L 13–20 | -1.5 |
"Moved the rating" = today's rating minus what it would be if that game had never happened (everything else re-solved). A big number on one game is worth a second look at the score.