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Dexter Regional 8-Man Small North
Projected final record 4–3 · projected #3 seed · full projection →. A season-simulation projection, not a prediction.
Want to see how the standings could change? Open the what-if simulator →
Playoff picture · 8-Man Small North, top 4 qualify · all divisions →
Still in contention. With 3 games to play, Dexter can finish as high as #1 and as low as #5: the playoff cut runs right through this team.
"Clinched" and "eliminated" are exact: they hold for every possible combination of remaining results. Seeds use the same Crabtree method as the standings. Nothing here is a prediction.
Games that matter most · if the higher-rated team wins every game, Dexter is the #5 seed
These are the games whose result moves Dexter's seed the most (every other game held at the rating's pick). Each column shows who wins and where Dexter lands.
| Date | Game | Dexter's seed if… | …or if… |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 10/23 | vs Bucksport in/out | Dexter wins → #4 in | Bucksport wins → #5 out |
Dexter's own games are in bold; "other game" rows are matchups Dexter isn't in but that still move its seed (Crabtree counts opponents' records). Open the full simulator →
Championship chances · projection, week 4 · all divisions →
Simulated from the power ratings: how often Dexter wins the bracket across thousands of season runs, not a betting number. A projection, not advice; to win state a team must first win its region.
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/4 | Stearns 8-Man Small North | L 8–42 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/11 | Washington Academy 8-Man Small North | L 14–62 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/18 | at Maranacook 8-Man Small South | L 16–54 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/25 | Houlton 8-Man Large North | W 20–13 | Recap → |
| Sat 10/3 | at Mount View 8-Man Small South | 1:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/9 | Orono 8-Man Small North | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/23 | at Bucksport 8-Man Small North | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
Crabtree, shown step by step
| Opponent played | Their W-L | Counts? |
|---|---|---|
| Stearns | 4-0 | yes |
| Washington Academy | 3-1 | yes |
| Maranacook | 3-0 | yes |
| Houlton | 0-4 | yes |
Own win% = 1 / 4 = 0.2500
Opponents pooled = 10 wins / 15 games = 0.6667
Crabtree = (0.2500 + 0.6667) × 100 = 91.667
Heal tiebreaker: preliminary index 4.286, tournament index 1.4286 over 7 scheduled games.
niftiIQ power rating
-15.3 points vs. an average Maine team (80% band -27.4 to -3.1) · rank #19 among 8-man teams · est. 0% chance of being the top-rated team in 8-Man Small North, est. 0% in all of 8-man
4 games of evidence; 20% of today's number is still the starting assumption (average 8S team, -0.0 from where the program finished the last two seasons). A band that touches 0 means the data can't yet separate this team from average. How the rating works →
| Game | Result | Moved the rating |
|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/4 Stearns | L 8–42 | +0.2 |
| Fri 9/11 Washington Academy | L 14–62 | -3.8 |
| Fri 9/18 at Maranacook | L 16–54 | -2.1 |
| Fri 9/25 Houlton | W 20–13 | +1.6 |
"Moved the rating" = today's rating minus what it would be if that game had never happened (everything else re-solved). A big number on one game is worth a second look at the score.