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Bucksport 8-Man Small North
Projected final record 3–4 · projected #5 seed · full projection →. A season-simulation projection, not a prediction.
Want to see how the standings could change? Open the what-if simulator →
Playoff picture · 8-Man Small North, top 4 qualify · all divisions →
Still in contention. With 3 games to play, Bucksport can finish as high as #1 and as low as #5: the playoff cut runs right through this team.
"Clinched" and "eliminated" are exact: they hold for every possible combination of remaining results. Seeds use the same Crabtree method as the standings. Nothing here is a prediction.
Games that matter most · if the higher-rated team wins every game, Bucksport is the #4 seed
These are the games whose result moves Bucksport's seed the most (every other game held at the rating's pick). Each column shows who wins and where Bucksport lands.
| Date | Game | Bucksport's seed if… | …or if… |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 10/23 | vs Dexter in/out | Bucksport wins → #4 in | Dexter wins → #5 out |
| Fri 10/16 | vs Washington Academy | Bucksport wins → #2 in | Washington Academy wins → #4 in |
| Fri 10/9 | vs Stearns | Bucksport wins → #3 in | Stearns wins → #4 in |
| Fri 10/9 | other game: Orono vs Dexter | Dexter wins → #3 in | Orono wins → #4 in |
Bucksport's own games are in bold; "other game" rows are matchups Bucksport isn't in but that still move its seed (Crabtree counts opponents' records). Open the full simulator →
Championship chances · projection, week 4 · all divisions →
Simulated from the power ratings: how often Bucksport wins the bracket across thousands of season runs, not a betting number. A projection, not advice; to win state a team must first win its region.
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/4 | at Ellsworth 8-Man Large North | L 26–52 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/11 | Boothbay 8-Man Small South | W 26–0 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/18 | MDI 8-Man Large North | W 36–24 | Recap → |
| Fri 9/25 | at Orono 8-Man Small North | L 28–67 | Recap → |
| Fri 10/9 | Stearns 8-Man Small North | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/16 | at Washington Academy 8-Man Small North | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
| Fri 10/23 | Dexter 8-Man Small North | 7:00 PM | Preview → |
Crabtree, shown step by step
| Opponent played | Their W-L | Counts? |
|---|---|---|
| Ellsworth | 3-1 | yes |
| Boothbay | 2-1 | yes |
| MDI | 2-2 | yes |
| Orono | 1-3 | yes |
Own win% = 2 / 4 = 0.5000
Opponents pooled = 8 wins / 15 games = 0.5333
Crabtree = (0.5000 + 0.5333) × 100 = 103.333
Heal tiebreaker: preliminary index 7.143, tournament index 19.6429 over 7 scheduled games.
niftiIQ power rating
-4.2 points vs. an average Maine team (80% band -16.1 to 7.8) · rank #15 among 8-man teams · est. 4% chance of being the top-rated team in 8-Man Small North, est. 0% in all of 8-man
4 games of evidence; 20% of today's number is still the starting assumption (average 8S team, -7.4 from where the program finished the last two seasons). A band that touches 0 means the data can't yet separate this team from average. How the rating works →
| Game | Result | Moved the rating |
|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/4 at Ellsworth | L 26–52 | -3.1 |
| Fri 9/11 Boothbay | W 26–0 | +4.8 |
| Fri 9/18 MDI | W 36–24 | +4.6 |
| Fri 9/25 at Orono | L 28–67 | -5.1 |
"Moved the rating" = today's rating minus what it would be if that game had never happened (everything else re-solved). A big number on one game is worth a second look at the score.