More
Spruce Mountain at Orono
Fri, Oct 2, 2026 · 6:00 PM · Orono
Spruce Mountain team page Orono team page What-if simulator
Frozen pick for the weekly picks: Spruce Mountain, est. 79%, written Oct 1. The numbers above use today's rating and can differ a little.
After this weekend · 8-Man Small North Crabtree
Where Orono and Spruce Mountain can land
Places #1 to #5 after this week's games. Dark = possible with a win, light = possible with a loss. The outlined box is where they stand today.
Win: #2 to #4 · Loss: #2 to #5
With a win: best is #2 est. 85% chance
Has to happen no single other result; there is more than one way.
Likeliest way Stearns beats Washington Academy.
Even with a loss: best is #2 est. 22% chance
Has to happen Stearns beats Washington Academy; Old Town beats Houlton.
Likeliest way also has Sacopee Valley beats Traip; OOB beats Boothbay; Lake Region beats Gray-NG.
Win: #2 to #4 · Loss: #2 to #5
With a win: best is #2 est. 12% chance
Has to happen no single other result; there is more than one way.
Likeliest way Mt. Ararat beats Ellsworth; Dexter beats Mount View; Lake Region beats Gray-NG.
Even with a loss: best is #2 est. under 1% chance
Has to happen Mt. Ararat beats Ellsworth; Waterville beats Cape Elizabeth; Dexter beats Mount View; Lake Region beats Gray-NG.
Likeliest way also has Telstar beats Maranacook.
possible with a win possible with a loss place today
Depends on 10 other games this weekend, including Sacopee Valley at Traip, Mt. Ararat at Ellsworth, Washington Academy at Stearns, Old Town at Houlton, Cape Elizabeth at Waterville, OOB at Boothbay and 4 more. Crabtree counts opponents' records, so those results move both teams.
How to read the best-case notes: "Has to happen" results are needed in every way to that place. "Likeliest way" is the most probable route by our rating; other routes can exist. Chances are estimates from our power rating.
Spruce Mountain this season
| Sat 9/5 | at Telstar | W 30–18 |
| Sat 9/12 | vs. Yarmouth | L 0–48 |
| Fri 9/18 | vs. Lake Region | W 46–14 |
| Fri 9/25 | at Mt. Ararat | W 36–0 |
| Fri 10/2 | at Orono | this game |
| Fri 10/9 | vs. Cape Elizabeth | |
| Fri 10/16 | vs. Traip | |
| Fri 10/23 | at Maranacook |
Orono this season
| Thu 9/3 | vs. Old Town | L 6–48 |
| Fri 9/11 | at OOB | L 22–30 |
| Fri 9/18 | at Stearns | L 20–40 |
| Fri 9/25 | vs. Bucksport | W 67–28 |
| Fri 10/2 | vs. Spruce Mountain | this game |
| Fri 10/9 | at Dexter | |
| Fri 10/16 | at Yarmouth | |
| Fri 10/23 | vs. Madawaska |
Quick answers
When and where do Spruce Mountain and Orono play?
Spruce Mountain plays at Orono on Fri, Oct 2, 2026 at 6:00 PM, at Orono.
Who has the better chance, Spruce Mountain or Orono?
Spruce Mountain. Our power rating gives Spruce Mountain an est. 74% chance to win, by est. 11 points.
What is Spruce Mountain's record and Crabtree place?
Spruce Mountain is 3–1 and #4 of 6 in 8-Man Large South in the Crabtree standings, the MPA's playoff order, recomputed from every result.
What is Orono's record and Crabtree place?
Orono is 1–3 and #2 of 5 in 8-Man Small North in the Crabtree standings, the MPA's playoff order, recomputed from every result.
What does this game mean for Orono's playoff seeding?
With a win, Orono finishes the week between #2 to #4 in 8-Man Small North; with a loss, between #2 to #5, depending on the week's other results.
Can Orono still be #2 in 8-Man Small North if it loses?
Yes. Even with a loss, Orono can finish the week #2 if Stearns beats Washington Academy, Old Town beats Houlton, Sacopee Valley beats Traip, OOB beats Boothbay and Lake Region beats Gray-NG. Our rating puts that at est. 22%.
What does this game mean for Spruce Mountain's playoff seeding?
With a win, Spruce Mountain finishes the week between #2 to #4 in 8-Man Small North; with a loss, between #2 to #5, depending on the week's other results.
Can Spruce Mountain still be #2 in 8-Man Small North if it loses?
Yes. Even with a loss, Spruce Mountain can finish the week #2 if Mt. Ararat beats Ellsworth, Waterville beats Cape Elizabeth, Dexter beats Mount View, Lake Region beats Gray-NG and Telstar beats Maranacook. Our rating puts that at est. under 1%.
Download image for posting (1080 × 1350, for Facebook or Instagram)
Win chances come from the niftiIQ power rating, a statistical model built on this season's results; the method is on the About page and its track record on Accuracy. Crabtree places use the MPA's own method, recomputed. Nothing here is advice.