The panel uses today's rating; the write-up below keeps the numbers from when it was written (Sep 28), so the two can differ a little.
Frozen pick for the weekly picks: Westbrook, est. 52%, written Oct 1. The numbers above use today's rating and can differ a little.
The short version. Biddeford has the better record. Westbrook has played the harder schedule. Put those together and our power rating makes Friday about as even as a game gets: Westbrook by est. 0.6 points, roughly a 52% chance, even after Biddeford's home-field edge (est. 2.8 points). Read that as "nobody should be surprised either way."
Two roads to the same Friday
Biddeford (3–1) beat Brunswick 28–6, Gorham 21–0 and Morse 26–8, then lost 38–14 at Falmouth. Biddeford has outscored its opponents 89–52, and 38 of those 52 points came in the one loss, at Falmouth. Its four opponents are a combined 6–10.
Westbrook (1–3) opened with a 15–9 win over Cheverus, then lost 8–0 at Marshwood, 22–18 at Falmouth and 42–0 to Thornton. It has been outscored 81–33, and 42 of those 81 points came against Thornton. Its four opponents are a combined 11–5, and two of them, Marshwood and Thornton, are unbeaten. Thornton is the top-rated 11-man team in the state on our list.
The one opponent they share
Both teams went to Falmouth. Biddeford lost by 24; Westbrook lost by 4. One game each is a small sample, but it's a big part of why the rating has Westbrook 19th and Biddeford 23rd among Maine's 11-man teams, the reverse of their records.
What's at stake
Six of the seven Class B South teams make the playoffs, so this is about seeding. Biddeford is #2 in the Crabtree standings today (112.500, tied); Westbrook is #5 (93.750). If every other game goes to form, the winner projects as the #5 seed and the loser as #6. Both teams can still finish anywhere from #1 to #7.
After this weekend · Class B South Crabtree
Where Biddeford and Westbrook can land
Places #1 to #7 after this week's games. Dark = possible with a win, light = possible with a loss. The outlined box is where they stand today.
Biddefordtoday #2 · 3–1
With a win
1234567
With a loss
1234567
Win: #1 to #4 · Loss: #2 to #5
With a win: best is #1est. 3% chance
Has to happen Falmouth beats Marshwood.
Likeliest way also has Noble beats Massabesic; Brunswick beats Mt. Blue; Gorham beats Cheverus.
Even with a loss: best is #2est. under 1% chance
Has to happen Deering beats Kennebunk; Marshwood beats Falmouth; Gorham beats Cheverus.
Likeliest way also has Brunswick beats Mt. Blue; Portland beats Thornton.
Westbrooktoday #5 · 1–3
With a win
1234567
With a loss
1234567
Win: #2 to #5 · Loss: #5 to #6
With a win: best is #2est. 10% chance
Has to happen Deering beats Kennebunk.
Likeliest way also has South Portland beats Sanford; Massabesic beats Noble; Cheverus beats Gorham; Thornton beats Portland.
Even with a loss: best is #5est. 91% chance
Has to happen no single other result; there is more than one way.
Likeliest way Cheverus beats Gorham.
possible with a win possible with a loss place today
Depends on 9 other games this weekend, including South Portland at Sanford, Morse at Freeport, Noble at Massabesic, Marshwood at Falmouth, Cony at Lawrence, Deering at Kennebunk and 3 more. Crabtree counts opponents' records, so those results move both teams.
How to read the best-case notes: "Has to happen" results are needed in every way to that place. "Likeliest way" is the most probable route by our rating; other routes can exist. Chances are estimates from our power rating.
Westbrook won the last three meetings in our records: 36–20 in 2023, 21–18 in 2024 and 55–21 in 2025.
What to watch
Biddeford's defense. It gave up 14 points in its three wins combined, then 38 at Falmouth.
Westbrook's losses in context. All three came against teams that are now a combined 10–2 (Marshwood, Falmouth, Thornton). A win Friday would be its first on the road this season.
The Crabtree math. Crabtree counts your opponents' records, so the other games involving Class B South teams this weekend (Marshwood at Falmouth, Deering at Kennebunk, Gorham vs. Cheverus) nudge both teams too. The what-if simulator lets you try any combination.
Numbers as of Monday, Sept. 28, from the results on this site. Our frozen pick for this game is written Thursday morning on the Picks page and may differ slightly if late results come in. A projection, not a prediction; nothing here is advice of any kind. Written with AI assistance from this site's numbers.
Westbrook plays at Biddeford on Fri, Oct 2, 2026 at 6:00 PM, at Waterhouse Field, Biddeford.
Who has the better chance, Westbrook or Biddeford?
It is close to even: our power rating gives Westbrook an est. 51% chance to win, a projected margin of est. 1 point.
What is Westbrook's record and Crabtree place?
Westbrook is 1–3 and #5 of 7 in Class B South in the Crabtree standings, the MPA's playoff order, recomputed from every result.
What is Biddeford's record and Crabtree place?
Biddeford is 3–1 and #2 of 7 in Class B South in the Crabtree standings, the MPA's playoff order, recomputed from every result.
What does this game mean for Biddeford's playoff seeding?
With a win, Biddeford finishes the week between #1 to #4 in Class B South; with a loss, between #2 to #5, depending on the week's other results.
Can Biddeford still be #2 in Class B South if it loses?
Yes. Even with a loss, Biddeford can finish the week #2 if Deering beats Kennebunk, Marshwood beats Falmouth, Gorham beats Cheverus, Brunswick beats Mt. Blue and Portland beats Thornton. Our rating puts that at est. under 1%.
What does this game mean for Westbrook's playoff seeding?
With a win, Westbrook finishes the week between #2 to #5 in Class B South; with a loss, between #5 to #6, depending on the week's other results.
Can Westbrook still be #5 in Class B South if it loses?
Yes. Even with a loss, Westbrook can finish the week #5 if Cheverus beats Gorham. Our rating puts that at est. 91%.
Who won the last meeting between Westbrook and Biddeford?
Westbrook won the last meeting in our records, 55–21 in 2025.
Win chances come from the niftiIQ power rating, a statistical model built on this season's results; the method is on the About page and its track record on Accuracy. Crabtree places use the MPA's own method, recomputed. Nothing here is advice.
