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Week 4
16
games this week
29–17
2026 record · 63.0%
31–15
Market pick, same games · 67.4%
65.0%
backtest 2010–2025 · 4,146 games →
65.5%
pace to beat our 65.0% backtest · need 148 of 226 left
64.9%
16-yr trimmed mean · best (2024) & worst (2025) years dropped · beat it: 148 of 226
67%
hit rate on 75%+ picks (9)
5
longest streak · current 0
11.1
avg. margin error (pts)
Week 4 picks
Bold team is the pick; the colored dot on the pick chip is that team's color. Projected shows the score, our margin and our total. "Why" shows the factors that moved it, in percentage points of win probability. Market column is the market pick at kickoff for comparison, never a model input; when our pick differs from it, that's historically our weaker call (about 44% vs about 68% when we agree).
Kickoff (ET)
Matchup
Win probability
Pick
Projected
Market pick
Why this pick
Thu 8:15 PM
PIT @ CLE
Steelers at BrownsAaron Rodgers vs Deshaun Watson
56%
CLE
20–22
CLE −1.6 · O/U 42.4
PIT −2.5 we differ
CLE at home (+8); PIT is the better team (-6)
Sun 9:30 AM
IND @ WAS
Colts at CommandersDaniel Jones vs Jayden Daniels
60%
IND
24–22
IND −3.0 · O/U 46.0
IND −3.5 same
IND has the QB edge (+5); IND has the more efficient offense (+3); WAS missing 1 starter (+1)
Sun 1:00 PM
ARI @ NYG
Cardinals at GiantsJacoby Brissett vs Jameis Winston
60%
NYG
21–24
NYG −2.9 · O/U 45.0
ARI −2.5 we differ
NYG at home (+8); NYG in better form (+6); ARI has the QB edge (-5)
Sun 1:00 PM
DAL @ HOU
Cowboys at TexansDak Prescott vs C.J. Stroud
62%
HOU
23–26
HOU −2.9 · O/U 49.0
HOU −3 same
HOU is the better team (+10); DAL has the QB edge (-9); HOU at home (+8)
Sun 1:00 PM
GB @ TB
Packers at BuccaneersJordan Love vs Jalon Daniels
58%
GB
24–23
GB −1.5 · O/U 46.9
GB −3.5 same
GB has the QB edge (+16); TB at home (-8); TB has the more efficient offense (-4)
Sun 1:00 PM
JAX @ CIN
Jaguars at BengalsTrevor Lawrence vs Joe Burrow
52%
JAX
25–24
JAX −1.1 · O/U 48.6
CIN −2.5 we differ
CIN at home (-8); JAX is the better team (+7); JAX in better form (+6)
Sun 1:00 PM
LA @ PHI
Rams at EaglesMatthew Stafford vs Jalen Hurts
51%
LA
24–24
LA −0.5 · O/U 48.1
LA −3 same
PHI at home (-8); LA is the better team (+7); LA has the QB edge (+6)
Sun 1:00 PM
NE @ BUF
Patriots at BillsDrake Maye vs Josh Allen
76%
BUF
20–29
BUF −9.3 · O/U 49.1
BUF −6.5 same
BUF at home (+6); BUF has the QB edge (+6); BUF is the better team (+5)
Sun 1:00 PM
NYJ @ CHI
Jets at BearsGeno Smith vs Case Keenum
74%
CHI
19–27
CHI −8.1 · O/U 46.0
CHI −3.5 same
CHI is the better team (+10); CHI in better form (+7); CHI at home (+6)
Sun 1:00 PM
TEN @ BAL
Titans at RavensCam Ward vs Lamar Jackson
86%
BAL
16–30
BAL −14.2 · O/U 45.3
BAL −11.5 same
BAL is the better team (+10); BAL has the QB edge (+8); BAL at home (+4)
Sun 4:05 PM
MIA @ MIN
Dolphins at VikingsMalik Willis vs Kyler Murray
80%
MIN
16–28
MIN −11.8 · O/U 43.8
MIN −10.5 same
MIN is the better team (+11); MIN in better form (+7); MIN at home (+5)
Sun 4:25 PM
DEN @ SF
Broncos at 49ersBo Nix vs Brock Purdy
63%
SF
22–27
SF −4.7 · O/U 48.8
SF −3 same
SF has the QB edge (+9); SF at home (+7); DEN has the more efficient offense (-4)
Sun 4:25 PM
KC @ LV
Chiefs at RaidersPatrick Mahomes vs Kirk Cousins
64%
KC
26–21
KC −4.7 · O/U 47.0
KC −4.5 same
KC is the better team (+12); LV at home (-7); KC has the QB edge (+5)
Sun 4:25 PM
LAC @ SEA
Chargers at SeahawksJustin Herbert vs Drew Lock
74%
SEA
17–25
SEA −8.6 · O/U 42.1
SEA −7 same
SEA is the better team (+14); SEA in better form (+7); SEA at home (+6)
Sun 8:20 PM
DET @ CAR
Lions at PanthersJared Goff vs Bryce Young
66%
DET
27–22
DET −4.4 · O/U 49.5
DET −3.5 same
DET has the QB edge (+12); DET is the better team (+11); CAR at home (-7)
Mon 8:15 PM
ATL @ NO
Falcons at SaintsMichael Penix Jr. vs Tyler Shough
50%
NO
23–24
NO −0.5 · O/U 47.3
NO −2.5 same
NO at home (+8); ATL is the better team (-3); ATL has the more efficient offense (-2)
What moved
Every run re-predicts the week and the last one before kickoff is the pick of record. This lists any game whose probability moved a point or more between pre-kickoff runs, or whose pick flipped, and names the biggest reason. Runs after kickoff never count and are not shown. 38 runs so far this week · latest Thu 11:02 AM ET.
| Run | Game | Pick | Before | After | Move | Biggest reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 11:02 AM ET | NE @ BUF | BUF | 75% BUF | 76% BUF | +1.0 toward BUF | analyst adjustment +1.1 |
| Thu 11:02 AM ET | GB @ TB | GB | 38% TB | 42% TB | +3.7 toward TB | analyst adjustment +3.9 |
| Thu 7:04 AM ET | GB @ TB | GB | 42% TB | 38% TB | -3.7 toward GB | analyst adjustment -3.9 |
| Wed 7:03 PM ET | GB @ TB | GB | 43% TB | 42% TB | -1.8 toward GB | analyst adjustment -1.8 |
| Wed 3:01 PM ET | GB @ TB | GB | 42% TB | 43% TB | +1.9 toward TB | analyst adjustment +1.9 |
| Wed 3:01 PM ET | IND @ WAS | IND | 41% WAS | 39% WAS | -2.1 toward IND | analyst adjustment -2.1 |
| Wed 11:02 AM ET | DET @ CAR | DET | 36% CAR | 34% CAR | -1.8 toward DET | analyst adjustment -1.8 |
| Wed 11:02 AM ET | GB @ TB | GB | 45% TB | 42% TB | -3.7 toward GB | analyst adjustment -3.7 |
| Wed 7:02 AM ET | GB @ TB | GB | 42% TB | 45% TB | +3.6 toward TB | analyst adjustment +3.7 |
| Tue 7:01 PM ET | NE @ BUF | BUF | 73% BUF | 75% BUF | +1.8 toward BUF | analyst adjustment +1.9 |
| Tue 7:01 PM ET | JAX @ CIN | JAX | 50% CIN | 48% CIN | -1.9 toward JAX | analyst adjustment -1.9 |
| Tue 7:01 PM ET | TEN @ BAL | BAL | 83% BAL | 87% BAL | +4.0 toward BAL | analyst adjustment +3.6 |
| Tue 7:01 PM ET | GB @ TB | GB | 50% TB | 42% TB | -7.9 toward GB | Quarterback -23.5 |
| Tue 7:03 AM ET | JAX @ CIN | CIN → JAX | 50% CIN | 50% CIN | -0.0 toward JAX | retrain / updated inputs |
| Tue 7:03 AM ET | GB @ TB | TB → GB | 51% TB | 50% TB | -1.7 toward GB | analyst adjustment -1.8 |
| Tue 7:03 AM ET | NYJ @ CHI | CHI | 67% CHI | 74% CHI | +7.3 toward CHI | Quarterback +8.0 |
| Tue 12:02 AM ET | NE @ BUF | BUF | 72% BUF | 73% BUF | +1.1 toward BUF | analyst adjustment +1.1 |
| Tue 12:02 AM ET | LA @ PHI | PHI → LA | 51% PHI | 48% PHI | -2.8 toward LA | analyst adjustment +1.3 |
| Tue 12:02 AM ET | NYJ @ CHI | CHI | 64% CHI | 67% CHI | +3.4 toward CHI | Recent form +1.4 |
| Mon 7:02 PM ET | GB @ TB | GB → TB | 49% TB | 51% TB | +1.9 toward TB | analyst adjustment +1.9 |
| Mon 7:02 PM ET | TEN @ BAL | BAL | 87% BAL | 83% BAL | -3.8 toward TEN | analyst adjustment -3.4 |
| Mon 7:02 PM ET | ARI @ NYG | NYG | 56% NYG | 60% NYG | +4.5 toward NYG | analyst adjustment +4.4 |
| Mon 3:03 PM ET | DAL @ HOU | HOU | 60% HOU | 61% HOU | +1.7 toward HOU | analyst adjustment +1.7 |
| Mon 3:03 PM ET | DET @ CAR | DET | 38% CAR | 36% CAR | -1.9 toward DET | analyst adjustment -1.9 |
Notable in Week 3
What stood out, measured against every game since 2009. Arithmetic on final scores and market's final price, nothing else; a fact makes the list only if it is rare (a team's best or worst in years, a game in the top 1% of all games, or a week in the top or bottom ten of nearly 300).
- Buffalo Bills won despite 5 turnovers; teams that turn it over 5+ times rarely do (it has happened in 179 games since 2009, and those teams lost most of them).
- Minnesota Vikings beat Tampa Bay Buccaneers for the first time since Week 3, 2017 (2 straight losses in between).
- Denver Broncos beat Los Angeles Rams for the first time in our data (0–4 since 2009 before this).
- Indianapolis Colts beat Houston Texans for the first time since Week 2, 2023 (5 straight losses in between).
- Washington Commanders beat Seattle Seahawks for the first time since Week 12, 2021 (2 straight losses in between).
- Drake London (Atlanta Falcons): 194 receiving yards, a career high in 64 games since 2009 (previous best 187).
- Sam Darnold (Seattle Seahawks): 379 passing yards, a career high in 101 games since 2009 (previous best 377).
- Green Bay Packers: a 21-point loss against Atlanta Falcons, the team's worst loss since Week 1, 2021.
- Philadelphia Eagles: a 20-point loss against Chicago Bears, the team's worst loss since the 2023 playoffs.
- Las Vegas Raiders: 35 points against New Orleans Saints, the team's most points since Week 15, 2023.
Week 3
10 of 16 correct · the market 9 of 16
Kickoff (ET)
Matchup
Win probability
Pick
Projected
Market pick
Why this pick
Thu 8:15 PM
ATL @ GB
Falcons at PackersMichael Penix Jr. vs Jordan Love
Final ATL 35 – GB 14✕
76%
GB
20–27
GB −6.8 · O/U 47.1
GB −4.5 same
GB has the QB edge (+9); GB is the better team (+6); GB at home (+6)
Sun 1:00 PM
CAR @ CLE
Panthers at BrownsBryce Young vs Deshaun Watson
Final CAR 18 – CLE 21✓
57%
CLE
20–23
CLE −2.0 · O/U 43.1
CAR −2.5 we differ
CLE at home (+8); CAR in better form (-3); CLE has the more efficient offense (+3)
Sun 1:00 PM
CIN @ PIT
Bengals at SteelersJoe Burrow vs Aaron Rodgers
Final CIN 27 – PIT 30✕
62%
CIN
25–21
CIN −3.8 · O/U 46.3
CIN −3.5 same
CIN has the QB edge (+8); PIT at home (-8); CIN in better form (+6)
Sun 1:00 PM
HOU @ IND
Texans at ColtsC.J. Stroud vs Daniel Jones
Final HOU 17 – IND 19✕
52%
HOU
23–22
HOU −0.9 · O/U 44.7
HOU −1.5 same
HOU is the better team (+10); IND at home (-8); HOU in better form (+4)
Sun 1:00 PM
KC @ MIA
Chiefs at DolphinsPatrick Mahomes vs Malik Willis
Final KC 24 – MIA 10✓
60%
KC
26–22
KC −4.5 · O/U 48.1
KC −10 same
KC is the better team (+11); KC in better form (+8); MIA at home (-8)
Sun 1:00 PM
LAC @ BUF
Chargers at BillsJustin Herbert vs Josh Allen
Final LAC 16 – BUF 24✓
85%
BUF
18–31
BUF −13.5 · O/U 48.6
BUF −7 same
BUF is the better team (+9); BUF has the QB edge (+6); BUF at home (+5)
Sun 1:00 PM
NE @ JAX
Patriots at JaguarsDrake Maye vs Trevor Lawrence
Final NE 6 – JAX 35✓
62%
JAX
21–25
JAX −3.9 · O/U 45.8
JAX −3 same
JAX at home (+8); NE is the better team (-2); JAX in better form (+2)
Sun 1:00 PM
NYJ @ DET
Jets at LionsGeno Smith vs Jared Goff
Final NYJ 24 – DET 31✓
84%
DET
19–31
DET −11.5 · O/U 49.7
DET −7 same
DET is the better team (+9); DET has the QB edge (+8); DET at home (+5)
Sun 1:00 PM
SEA @ WAS
Seahawks at CommandersDrew Lock vs Jayden Daniels
Final SEA 31 – WAS 33✕
80%
SEA
27–18
SEA −9.0 · O/U 45.5
SEA −8.5 same
SEA is the better team (+16); SEA in better form (+10); WAS at home (-6)
Sun 1:00 PM
TEN @ NYG
Titans at GiantsCam Ward vs Jameis Winston
Final TEN 7 – NYG 12✓
59%
NYG
20–23
NYG −2.8 · O/U 42.9
NYG −2.5 same
NYG at home (+7); NYG is the better team (+6); NYG in better form (+4)
Sun 4:05 PM
ARI @ SF
Cardinals at 49ersJacoby Brissett vs Brock Purdy
Final ARI 30 – SF 36✓
79%
SF
19–29
SF −10.9 · O/U 48.0
SF −7.5 same
SF is the better team (+8); SF has the QB edge (+7); SF in better form (+6)
Sun 4:05 PM
MIN @ TB
Vikings at BuccaneersKyler Murray vs Baker Mayfield
Final MIN 23 – TB 16✓
54%
MIN
23–21
MIN −1.8 · O/U 43.5
MIN −1.5 same
MIN is the better team (+10); TB at home (-8); MIN in better form (+6)
Sun 4:25 PM
BAL @ DAL
Ravens at CowboysLamar Jackson vs Dak Prescott
Final BAL 34 – DAL 31✓
64%
BAL
28–23
BAL −4.6 · O/U 51.2
BAL −3 same
BAL is the better team (+9); BAL in better form (+3); DAL missing 3 starters (+2)
Sun 4:25 PM
LV @ NO
Raiders at SaintsKirk Cousins vs Tyler Shough
Final LV 35 – NO 27✕
63%
NO
20–24
NO −4.0 · O/U 44.9
NO −3.5 same
NO at home (+7); NO is the better team (+5); NO in better form (+2)
Sun 8:20 PM
LA @ DEN
Rams at BroncosMatthew Stafford vs Bo Nix
Final LA 26 – DEN 30✓
51%
DEN
24–24
DEN −0.5 · O/U 48.0
DEN −1.5 same
DEN at home (+8); LA has the QB edge (-7); LA missing 2 starters (+3)
Mon 8:15 PM
PHI @ CHI
Eagles at BearsJalen Hurts vs Case Keenum
Final PHI 7 – CHI 27✕
66%
PHI
25–21
PHI −3.9 · O/U 46.0
PHI −3.5 same
PHI has the QB edge (+14); CHI at home (-8); PHI is the better team (+3)
Accuracy by week
Straight-up hit rate. Lighter bar = a week still being played. Hover a bar for the numbers.
Week 1Week 3
Does confidence mean anything?
Stated confidence vs. how often the pick was right. When we say 70%, are we right 70% of the time?
Power rankings
Points better than an average team on a neutral field, top 8. <a href="/nfl/rankings">All 32 →
Quarterbacks
EPA per dropback, shrunk and recency-weighted: the named starter for each team's next game. Top 8.
Super Bowl chances
From 5,000 simulated seasons, top 8. <a href="/nfl/season">Full projections →
Hit rate by confidence × week
Darker = the model was right more often. A healthy board is dark at the top, lighter at the bottom, in every column.
W1
W2
W3
80%+
70–80%
60–70%
50–60%
Week by week
Click a week for its picks.