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Steelers at Browns
CLE
the pick · 56% to win (model 52%, analyst +3.9)
20–22
projected · CLE by 1.6 · total 42.4
PIT −2.5
final market margin · we differ
Thu 8:15 PM
kickoff (ET) · pick is final at kickoff
Why Cleveland Browns
Each factor's push toward the pick, in percentage points of win probability. Aaron Rodgers vs Deshaun Watson at quarterback. Forecast at kickoff: 77.0°F, wind 9.0 mph, Cloudy.
CLE at home (+8); PIT is the better team (-6)
How the number moved
Every pre-kickoff run, oldest first. The last one is the pick of record.
| Run | CLE win | model | analyst | Pick | Market margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 7:03 AM ET | 53% | 53% | +0.0 | CLE | +0.5 |
| Thu 11:02 AM ET | 53% | 53% | +0.0 | CLE | +0.5 |
| Thu 3:01 PM ET | 53% | 53% | +0.0 | CLE | +0.5 |
| Thu 7:02 PM ET | 53% | 53% | +0.0 | CLE | +0.5 |
| Thu 8:01 PM ET | 53% | 53% | +0.0 | CLE | +0.5 |
| Fri 12:01 AM ET | 53% | 53% | +0.0 | CLE | +0.5 |
| Fri 7:02 AM ET | 53% | 53% | +0.0 | CLE | +0.5 |
| Fri 11:02 AM ET | 53% | 53% | +0.0 | CLE | +0.5 |
| Fri 3:03 PM ET | 53% | 53% | +0.0 | CLE | +0.5 |
| Fri 7:02 PM ET | 53% | 53% | +0.0 | CLE | +0.5 |
| Sat 7:03 AM ET | 55% | 53% | +1.9 | CLE | +1.0 |
| Sat 11:02 AM ET | 55% | 53% | +1.9 | CLE | +1.0 |
| Sat 3:02 PM ET | 55% | 53% | +1.9 | CLE | +1.0 |
| Sat 7:03 PM ET | 57% | 53% | +3.8 | CLE | +1.6 |
| Sun 7:03 AM ET | 57% | 53% | +3.8 | CLE | +1.6 |
| Sun 11:01 AM ET | 57% | 53% | +3.8 | CLE | +1.6 |
| Sun 11:47 AM ET | 57% | 53% | +3.8 | CLE | +1.6 |
| Sun 3:02 PM ET | 57% | 53% | +3.8 | CLE | +1.6 |
| Sun 4:13 PM ET | 57% | 53% | +3.8 | CLE | +1.6 |
| Sun 7:03 PM ET | 57% | 53% | +3.8 | CLE | +1.6 |
| Sun 8:03 PM ET | 57% | 53% | +3.8 | CLE | +1.6 |
| Mon 12:02 AM ET | 56% | 52% | +3.8 | CLE | +1.6 |
| Mon 7:02 AM ET | 56% | 52% | +3.8 | CLE | +1.6 |
| Mon 11:01 AM ET | 56% | 52% | +3.8 | CLE | +1.6 |
| Mon 3:03 PM ET | 56% | 52% | +3.8 | CLE | +1.6 |
| Mon 7:02 PM ET | 56% | 52% | +3.8 | CLE | +1.6 |
| Mon 8:01 PM ET | 56% | 52% | +3.8 | CLE | +1.6 |
| Tue 12:02 AM ET | 56% | 52% | +3.8 | CLE | +1.6 |
| Tue 7:03 AM ET | 56% | 52% | +3.8 | CLE | +1.6 |
| Tue 11:02 AM ET | 56% | 52% | +3.8 | CLE | +1.6 |
| Tue 3:01 PM ET | 56% | 52% | +3.8 | CLE | +1.6 |
| Tue 7:01 PM ET | 56% | 52% | +3.8 | CLE | +1.6 |
| Wed 7:02 AM ET | 56% | 52% | +3.8 | CLE | +1.6 |
| Wed 11:02 AM ET | 56% | 52% | +3.8 | CLE | +1.6 |
| Wed 3:01 PM ET | 56% | 52% | +3.8 | CLE | +1.6 |
| Wed 7:03 PM ET | 56% | 52% | +3.8 | CLE | +1.6 |
| Thu 7:04 AM ET | 56% | 52% | +3.9 | CLE | +1.6 |
| Thu 11:02 AM ET | 56% | 52% | +3.9 | CLE | +1.6 |
What the markets said
Probability the home team (CLE) wins, first snapshot → last before kickoff. Market margin in brackets, home minus away.
| Source | Open | Close | Snapshots |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 44% (-2.5) | 42% (-2.5) | 38 |
| Kalshi | 44% | 42% | 38 |
| DraftKings | 43% (-2.5) | 43% (-2.5) | 6 |
| nflverse price | 42% (-3.0) | 43% (-2.5) | 36 |
| niftiNFL | 53% | 56% (+1.6) | 38 |
What the news layer did
Claims read before kickoff. Bold = applied to the pick; gray = declined and kept as a shadow claim, graded at zero weight. Full analyst page for the week →
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report Ruled out for Thursday vs. Steelers; will miss fourth straight game | PIT | Joey Porter Jr. | 0.99 | +2.0 | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Starting center ruled out for Thursday vs. Steelers | CLE | Elgton Jenkins | 0.95 | -1.9 | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Placed on injured reserve | PIT | Gennings Dunker | 0.95 | +1.9 | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Won't play in Week 3 | PIT | Rico Dowdle | 0.95 | +1.9 | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Traded to Cowboys before Week 4; no longer on Steelers roster | PIT | Joey Porter Jr. | 0.95 | +1.9 | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') RG suffers bone break | PIT | Spencer Anderson | 0.85 | +1.7 | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Browns offensive starter likely to miss Week 4 vs Steelers | CLE | 0.60 | -1.2 | pending | |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') OT seen in walking boot after Week 2 loss; status unclear for Week 3 | PIT | Troy Fautanu | 0.60 | +1.2 | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') RB Rico Dowdle misses practice Monday after missing Week 3 game | PIT | Rico Dowdle | 0.50 | +1.0 | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: confidence 0.45 below floor for key_player_out CB nursing injury after Week 3 win; status unclear for Week 4 | PIT | Jalen Ramsey | 0.45 | +0.9 | pending |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) declined: confidence 0.70 below floor for other Starting offensive lineman likely to miss Week 4 vs Steelers | CLE | 0.70 | -0.3 | pending | |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) declined: confidence 0.70 below floor for other Broken wrist; hopes to play but status uncertain for Thursday Night Football | PIT | Jalen Ramsey | 0.70 | +0.3 | pending |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) declined: confidence 0.70 below floor for other NFL rule requires Steelers to travel to Cleveland by Wednesday; cannot depart Thursday morning as originally considered | PIT | 0.70 | +0.3 | pending |
Quick answers
When do the Pittsburgh Steelers play the Cleveland Browns?
Thu, Oct 1, 2026, at 8:15 PM ET, Week 4 of the 2026 NFL season, at the Cleveland Browns' home field.
Who does niftiNFL pick to win Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns?
niftiNFL picks the Cleveland Browns, 56% to win, with a projected score of Pittsburgh Steelers 20, Cleveland Browns 22. The pick is stored before kickoff and never changed.