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Power rankings
What changed
Since the previous snapshot (Sep 30 → Oct 1). The reason is what the model actually saw change: a result, a quarterback, an efficiency number, or other teams' results shifting the opponent adjustments. Every team's full history is on its page.
No rank changed between the two snapshots.
All 32 teams
Strength: expected margin vs an average team, neutral field. Off / Def EPA: opponent-adjusted expected points added per play (offense: higher is better; defense: EPA allowed, lower is better). QB: the named starter for the next game and his shrunk EPA per dropback.
| # | Team | Division | Record | Strength | Elo | Off EPA | Def EPA | QB | QB rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUF Buffalo Bills | AFC East | 3–0 | +6.8 | 1652 | +0.119 | +0.019 | Josh Allen | +0.136 |
| 2 | SF San Francisco 49ers | NFC West | 3–0 | +5.4 | 1616 | +0.092 | +0.032 | Brock Purdy | +0.170 |
| 3 | JAX Jacksonville Jaguars | AFC South | 2–1 | +5.2 | 1601 | +0.048 | -0.026 | Trevor Lawrence | +0.061 |
| 4 | LA Los Angeles Rams | NFC West | 1–2 | +4.8 | 1577 | +0.063 | -0.031 | Matthew Stafford | +0.125 |
| 5 | KC Kansas City Chiefs | AFC West | 3–0 | +4.3 | 1559 | +0.046 | -0.019 | Patrick Mahomes | +0.103 |
| 6 | BAL Baltimore Ravens | AFC North | 2–1 | +4.2 | 1550 | +0.073 | +0.013 | Lamar Jackson | +0.115 |
| 7 | MIN Minnesota Vikings | NFC North | 3–0 | +3.8 | 1611 | -0.057 | -0.081 | Kyler Murray | -0.015 |
| 8 | DET Detroit Lions | NFC North | 2–1 | +3.8 | 1555 | +0.078 | +0.022 | Jared Goff | +0.155 |
| 9 | SEA Seattle Seahawks | NFC West | 2–1 | +3.7 | 1680 | +0.030 | -0.086 | Drew Lock | +0.034 |
| 10 | CIN Cincinnati Bengals | AFC North | 2–1 | +2.9 | 1527 | +0.022 | +0.044 | Joe Burrow | +0.083 |
| 11 | DEN Denver Broncos | AFC West | 2–1 | +2.7 | 1603 | +0.007 | -0.040 | Bo Nix | +0.037 |
| 12 | CHI Chicago Bears | NFC North | 2–1 | +1.6 | 1566 | +0.049 | +0.006 | Case Keenum | +0.008 |
| 13 | PHI Philadelphia Eagles | NFC East | 2–1 | +1.0 | 1545 | +0.004 | -0.025 | Jalen Hurts | +0.042 |
| 14 | NE New England Patriots | AFC East | 1–2 | +0.6 | 1577 | +0.018 | -0.019 | Drake Maye | +0.037 |
| 15 | ATL Atlanta Falcons | NFC South | 1–2 | +0.4 | 1461 | -0.029 | +0.005 | Michael Penix Jr. | +0.030 |
| 16 | DAL Dallas Cowboys | NFC East | 1–2 | +0.0 | 1455 | +0.048 | +0.101 | Dak Prescott | +0.133 |
| 17 | HOU Houston Texans | AFC South | 0–3 | -0.3 | 1534 | -0.031 | -0.072 | C.J. Stroud | +0.003 |
| 18 | PIT Pittsburgh Steelers | AFC North | 2–1 | -1.3 | 1522 | -0.025 | +0.007 | Aaron Rodgers | -0.029 |
| 19 | IND Indianapolis Colts | AFC South | 1–2 | -1.4 | 1448 | +0.026 | +0.030 | Daniel Jones | +0.004 |
| 20 | NO New Orleans Saints | NFC South | 1–2 | -1.6 | 1442 | -0.029 | +0.005 | Tyler Shough | +0.010 |
| 21 | GB Green Bay Packers | NFC North | 1–2 | -1.9 | 1472 | +0.039 | +0.025 | Jordan Love | +0.102 |
| 22 | LV Las Vegas Raiders | AFC West | 3–0 | -2.0 | 1454 | -0.081 | -0.006 | Kirk Cousins | +0.035 |
| 23 | CAR Carolina Panthers | NFC South | 1–2 | -2.4 | 1442 | -0.008 | +0.045 | Bryce Young | -0.015 |
| 24 | CLE Cleveland Browns | AFC North | 2–1 | -3.0 | 1447 | -0.096 | -0.025 | Deshaun Watson | -0.019 |
| 25 | LAC Los Angeles Chargers | AFC West | 0–3 | -3.0 | 1441 | -0.038 | -0.026 | Justin Herbert | -0.004 |
| 26 | WAS Washington Commanders | NFC East | 1–2 | -3.8 | 1451 | +0.030 | +0.068 | Jayden Daniels | +0.032 |
| 27 | TB Tampa Bay Buccaneers | NFC South | 0–3 | -4.3 | 1430 | -0.010 | +0.013 | Jalon Daniels | -0.018 |
| 28 | NYG New York Giants | NFC East | 2–1 | -4.4 | 1442 | -0.026 | +0.058 | Jameis Winston | -0.067 |
| 29 | ARI Arizona Cardinals | NFC West | 1–2 | -4.6 | 1416 | +0.016 | +0.054 | Jacoby Brissett | +0.003 |
| 30 | NYJ New York Jets | AFC East | 1–2 | -4.9 | 1376 | -0.036 | +0.044 | Geno Smith | -0.006 |
| 31 | MIA Miami Dolphins | AFC East | 0–3 | -6.1 | 1395 | -0.023 | +0.060 | Malik Willis | +0.021 |
| 32 | TEN Tennessee Titans | AFC South | 0–3 | -8.0 | 1313 | -0.068 | +0.053 | Cam Ward | -0.114 |