Player rankings

As of Oct 1. Quarterbacks, running backs, receivers and tight ends, ranked from play-by-play: what each player produced per touch, against whom, weighted toward recent games. · predictions are published to show the model works. nothing here is betting advice.Last updated: predictions Oct 1, 11:02 AM ET · results graded Sep 28, 11:22 PM ET

Quarterbacks Running backs Wide receivers Tight ends How it works

Quarterbacks

The named starter for each team's next game, ranked by the same QB rating the game model uses: expected points added (EPA) per dropback, weighted toward recent games and shrunk toward the league average so a hot two weeks does not outrank three good seasons. As of Oct 1.

#	Quarterback	Team	EPA / dropback
1	Brock Purdy	SF San Francisco 49ers	+0.170
2	Jared Goff	DET Detroit Lions	+0.155
3	Josh Allen	BUF Buffalo Bills	+0.136
4	Dak Prescott	DAL Dallas Cowboys	+0.133
5	Matthew Stafford	LA Los Angeles Rams	+0.125
6	Lamar Jackson	BAL Baltimore Ravens	+0.115
7	Patrick Mahomes	KC Kansas City Chiefs	+0.103
8	Jordan Love	GB Green Bay Packers	+0.102
9	Joe Burrow	CIN Cincinnati Bengals	+0.083
10	Trevor Lawrence	JAX Jacksonville Jaguars	+0.061
11	Jalen Hurts	PHI Philadelphia Eagles	+0.042
12	Bo Nix	DEN Denver Broncos	+0.037
13	Drake Maye	NE New England Patriots	+0.037
14	Kirk Cousins	LV Las Vegas Raiders	+0.035
15	Drew Lock	SEA Seattle Seahawks	+0.034
16	Jayden Daniels	WAS Washington Commanders	+0.032
17	Michael Penix Jr.	ATL Atlanta Falcons	+0.030
18	Malik Willis	MIA Miami Dolphins	+0.021
19	Tyler Shough	NO New Orleans Saints	+0.010
20	Case Keenum	CHI Chicago Bears	+0.008
21	Daniel Jones	IND Indianapolis Colts	+0.004
22	Jacoby Brissett	ARI Arizona Cardinals	+0.003
23	C.J. Stroud	HOU Houston Texans	+0.003
24	Justin Herbert	LAC Los Angeles Chargers	-0.004
25	Geno Smith	NYJ New York Jets	-0.006
26	Kyler Murray	MIN Minnesota Vikings	-0.015
27	Bryce Young	CAR Carolina Panthers	-0.015
28	Jalon Daniels	TB Tampa Bay Buccaneers	-0.018
29	Deshaun Watson	CLE Cleveland Browns	-0.019
30	Aaron Rodgers	PIT Pittsburgh Steelers	-0.029
31	Jameis Winston	NYG New York Giants	-0.067
32	Cam Ward	TEN Tennessee Titans	-0.114

Running backs

Touches are carries plus targets. EPA per touch counts both rushing and receiving. Value is the ranking number: weighted touches × (adjusted EPA per touch above a replacement-level player). It rewards being good and being used. Qualifiers need 25 weighted touches and at least one touch this season.

#	Player	Team	Touches (wt.)	This season	EPA / touch	Adj. EPA / touch	Success	Value
1	Jahmyr Gibbs	DET Detroit Lions	215	86	+0.082	+0.072	49%	+23.2
2	James Cook III	BUF Buffalo Bills	211	66	+0.042	+0.057	45%	+20.3
3	Christian McCaffrey	SF San Francisco 49ers	200	52	+0.052	+0.061	47%	+19.5
4	Jonathan Taylor	IND Indianapolis Colts	220	77	+0.015	+0.043	42%	+19.1
5	Bijan Robinson	ATL Atlanta Falcons	231	82	+0.031	+0.025	48%	+17.2
6	Kenneth Walker III	KC Kansas City Chiefs	197	83	+0.035	+0.032	44%	+15.3
7	Derrick Henry	BAL Baltimore Ravens	204	71	+0.030	+0.016	46%	+13.6
8	D'Andre Swift	CHI Chicago Bears	181	63	+0.022	+0.029	44%	+13.5
9	Kyren Williams	LA Los Angeles Rams	195	50	+0.002	+0.004	48%	+11.3
10	Chuba Hubbard	CAR Carolina Panthers	136	51	+0.015	+0.017	43%	+8.4
11	Travis Etienne Jr.	NO New Orleans Saints	159	44	-0.026	-0.015	40%	+6.8
12	De'Von Achane	MIA Miami Dolphins	168	46	-0.017	-0.021	39%	+6.6
13	Jaylen Warren	PIT Pittsburgh Steelers	147	52	-0.010	-0.013	43%	+6.4
14	Rachaad White	WAS Washington Commanders	103	31	+0.026	+0.025	46%	+6.4
15	Ty Johnson	BUF Buffalo Bills	38	4	+0.340	+0.348	51%	+5.7
16	Blake Corum	LA Los Angeles Rams	94	33	+0.017	+0.015	46%	+5.3
17	Bhayshul Tuten	JAX Jacksonville Jaguars	75	48	+0.033	+0.042	50%	+5.0
18	Kyle Monangai	CHI Chicago Bears	100	34	+0.005	+0.001	43%	+4.9
19	Chris Rodriguez Jr.	JAX Jacksonville Jaguars	57	20	+0.045	+0.059	47%	+3.9
20	Brian Robinson Jr.	ATL Atlanta Falcons	88	32	+0.006	-0.008	42%	+3.7
21	Bucky Irving	TB Tampa Bay Buccaneers	142	55	-0.050	-0.044	37%	+3.4
22	RJ Harvey	DEN Denver Broncos	86	16	-0.032	-0.018	44%	+3.2
23	Chase Brown	CIN Cincinnati Bengals	183	62	-0.070	-0.054	40%	+3.0
24	Saquon Barkley	PHI Philadelphia Eagles	196	40	-0.037	-0.058	39%	+2.6
25	Breece Hall	NYJ New York Jets	172	61	-0.040	-0.057	41%	+2.6
26	Justice Hill	BAL Baltimore Ravens	40	16	+0.073	+0.072	42%	+2.5
27	Samaje Perine	CIN Cincinnati Bengals	53	17	+0.000	+0.010	46%	+2.5
28	Ray Davis	BUF Buffalo Bills	37	1	+0.086	+0.080	43%	+2.4
29	Jeremiyah Love	ARI Arizona Cardinals	50	53	-0.016	+0.012	44%	+2.3
30	Javonte Williams	DAL Dallas Cowboys	164	55	-0.042	-0.058	43%	+2.3
31	TreVeyon Henderson	NE New England Patriots	101	25	-0.046	-0.048	38%	+2.2
32	Tyjae Spears	TEN Tennessee Titans	66	19	-0.045	-0.028	35%	+2.1
33	Rhamondre Stevenson	NE New England Patriots	136	42	-0.084	-0.059	38%	+1.9
34	David Montgomery	HOU Houston Texans	120	44	-0.051	-0.062	43%	+1.6
35	Ameer Abdullah	JAX Jacksonville Jaguars	33	13	-0.004	+0.024	41%	+1.5
36	Najee Harris	NYG New York Giants	50	13	-0.039	-0.048	39%	+1.2
37	Devin Singletary	NYG New York Giants	67	14	-0.044	-0.062	38%	+1.1
38	Jacory Croskey-Merritt	WAS Washington Commanders	104	50	-0.086	-0.069	38%	+1.0
39	Rico Dowdle	PIT Pittsburgh Steelers	136	22	-0.065	-0.070	39%	+1.0
40	Tyler Allgeier	ARI Arizona Cardinals	92	32	-0.099	-0.072	39%	+0.9

Wide receivers

Touches are targets: a receiver is credited with the play every time the ball is thrown his way, including incompletions, so drops and bad throws count against him. That is the honest way to do it with free data. Value is the ranking number: weighted touches × (adjusted EPA per touch above a replacement-level player). It rewards being good and being used. Qualifiers need 20 weighted touches and at least one touch this season.

#	Player	Team	Touches (wt.)	This season	EPA / touch	Adj. EPA / touch	Success	Value
1	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA Seattle Seahawks	104	36	+0.581	+0.562	63%	+26.0
2	Puka Nacua	LA Los Angeles Rams	83	9	+0.500	+0.495	61%	+16.2
3	Zay Flowers	BAL Baltimore Ravens	59	12	+0.620	+0.616	61%	+13.8
4	Tee Higgins	CIN Cincinnati Bengals	62	23	+0.537	+0.573	58%	+13.6
5	CeeDee Lamb	DAL Dallas Cowboys	75	26	+0.497	+0.472	59%	+13.1
6	Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET Detroit Lions	99	35	+0.370	+0.378	53%	+12.9
7	George Pickens	DAL Dallas Cowboys	76	25	+0.480	+0.453	56%	+12.6
8	Chris Olave	NO New Orleans Saints	85	36	+0.430	+0.415	57%	+12.6
9	Stefon Diggs	WAS Washington Commanders	63	22	+0.483	+0.483	60%	+11.0
10	Ja'Marr Chase	CIN Cincinnati Bengals	97	25	+0.318	+0.332	55%	+9.8
11	Terry McLaurin	WAS Washington Commanders	53	22	+0.506	+0.492	52%	+8.9
12	Mike Evans	SF San Francisco 49ers	45	16	+0.607	+0.576	60%	+8.8
13	Drake London	ATL Atlanta Falcons	68	19	+0.398	+0.387	60%	+8.6
14	Jameson Williams	DET Detroit Lions	56	17	+0.456	+0.457	53%	+8.6
15	Ladd McConkey	LAC Los Angeles Chargers	60	15	+0.429	+0.419	58%	+8.2
16	Parker Washington	JAX Jacksonville Jaguars	59	23	+0.369	+0.418	55%	+8.2
17	Mack Hollins	NE New England Patriots	43	16	+0.515	+0.552	64%	+8.0
18	Alec Pierce	IND Indianapolis Colts	38	7	+0.602	+0.623	56%	+7.7
19	Davante Adams	LA Los Angeles Rams	83	29	+0.312	+0.319	52%	+7.7
20	Jalen Coker	CAR Carolina Panthers	42	22	+0.526	+0.551	58%	+7.5
21	Kalif Raymond	CHI Chicago Bears	31	21	+0.764	+0.792	70%	+7.5
22	Nico Collins	HOU Houston Texans	59	10	+0.366	+0.390	51%	+7.2
23	Jakobi Meyers	JAX Jacksonville Jaguars	58	11	+0.357	+0.379	61%	+6.8
24	Romeo Doubs	NE New England Patriots	47	11	+0.437	+0.445	58%	+6.6
25	DeVonta Smith	PHI Philadelphia Eagles	74	27	+0.332	+0.298	55%	+5.8
26	Josh Downs	IND Indianapolis Colts	60	24	+0.287	+0.334	52%	+5.8
27	Christian Watson	GB Green Bay Packers	51	29	+0.342	+0.354	52%	+5.3
28	Devaughn Vele	NO New Orleans Saints	38	22	+0.462	+0.450	59%	+5.1
29	A.J. Brown	NE New England Patriots	54	4	+0.337	+0.329	56%	+5.0
30	Tre Tucker	LV Las Vegas Raiders	50	15	+0.337	+0.342	50%	+4.8
31	Keon Coleman	BUF Buffalo Bills	36	10	+0.434	+0.427	59%	+4.4
32	Jaylen Waddle	DEN Denver Broncos	58	21	+0.272	+0.292	50%	+4.4
33	Matthew Golden	GB Green Bay Packers	43	30	+0.324	+0.344	47%	+4.1
34	Kayshon Boutte	HOU Houston Texans	35	9	+0.400	+0.402	58%	+4.0
35	Chris Godwin Jr.	TB Tampa Bay Buccaneers	32	11	+0.394	+0.413	60%	+3.7
36	Marvin Harrison Jr.	ARI Arizona Cardinals	42	9	+0.322	+0.323	52%	+3.6
37	Brian Thomas Jr.	JAX Jacksonville Jaguars	52	12	+0.258	+0.278	52%	+3.6
38	Joshua Palmer	BUF Buffalo Bills	22	5	+0.574	+0.593	46%	+3.4
39	Demarcus Robinson	SF San Francisco 49ers	26	6	+0.448	+0.468	58%	+3.3
40	Rome Odunze	CHI Chicago Bears	53	13	+0.243	+0.263	47%	+3.2

Tight ends

Targets only, like receivers. Blocking is not in play-by-play data, so a tight end who mostly blocks is under-ranked here and we cannot fix that. Value is the ranking number: weighted touches × (adjusted EPA per touch above a replacement-level player). It rewards being good and being used. Qualifiers need 15 weighted touches and at least one touch this season.

#	Player	Team	Touches (wt.)	This season	EPA / touch	Adj. EPA / touch	Success	Value
1	Trey McBride	ARI Arizona Cardinals	97	34	+0.412	+0.434	61%	+15.7
2	Travis Kelce	KC Kansas City Chiefs	65	18	+0.476	+0.485	62%	+11.0
3	George Kittle	SF San Francisco 49ers	46	16	+0.684	+0.650	70%	+10.2
4	Dalton Kincaid	BUF Buffalo Bills	42	17	+0.663	+0.675	62%	+9.5
5	Sam LaPorta	DET Detroit Lions	41	19	+0.564	+0.564	64%	+7.3
6	Juwan Johnson	NO New Orleans Saints	55	19	+0.390	+0.372	58%	+5.9
7	Dallas Goedert	PHI Philadelphia Eagles	40	7	+0.530	+0.495	57%	+5.9
8	Brock Bowers	LV Las Vegas Raiders	54	13	+0.336	+0.362	60%	+5.6
9	Mike Gesicki	CIN Cincinnati Bengals	30	10	+0.519	+0.539	66%	+4.5
10	Tucker Kraft	GB Green Bay Packers	37	17	+0.403	+0.398	50%	+3.9
11	Colston Loveland	CHI Chicago Bears	41	9	+0.349	+0.360	53%	+3.9
12	Dalton Schultz	HOU Houston Texans	66	25	+0.259	+0.259	53%	+3.5
13	Darren Waller	CAR Carolina Panthers	23	13	+0.553	+0.580	60%	+3.3
14	Isaiah Likely	NYG New York Giants	39	23	+0.342	+0.319	58%	+3.0
15	Pat Freiermuth	PIT Pittsburgh Steelers	38	14	+0.293	+0.306	58%	+2.7
16	Brenton Strange	JAX Jacksonville Jaguars	34	10	+0.288	+0.302	60%	+2.4
17	Darnell Washington	PIT Pittsburgh Steelers	24	8	+0.415	+0.419	61%	+2.3
18	Austin Hooper	ATL Atlanta Falcons	22	6	+0.482	+0.463	65%	+2.3
19	T.J. Hockenson	MIN Minnesota Vikings	39	13	+0.270	+0.274	50%	+2.3
20	Dawson Knox	BUF Buffalo Bills	25	4	+0.337	+0.352	62%	+2.0
21	Hunter Henry	NE New England Patriots	50	10	+0.227	+0.229	55%	+2.0
22	Cole Kmet	CHI Chicago Bears	27	5	+0.294	+0.319	50%	+1.9
23	Mark Andrews	BAL Baltimore Ravens	46	18	+0.226	+0.217	57%	+1.6
24	Greg Dulcich	MIA Miami Dolphins	23	12	+0.301	+0.307	51%	+1.5
25	Colby Parkinson	LA Los Angeles Rams	31	5	+0.240	+0.229	60%	+1.3
26	Zach Ertz	PHI Philadelphia Eagles	36	2	+0.209	+0.201	54%	+1.1
27	Harold Fannin Jr.	CLE Cleveland Browns	50	18	+0.191	+0.184	48%	+1.0
28	Jonnu Smith	GB Green Bay Packers	34	6	+0.162	+0.187	54%	+0.9
29	Davis Allen	LA Los Angeles Rams	16	5	+0.261	+0.273	60%	+0.9
30	Jeremy Ruckert	NYJ New York Jets	19	8	+0.242	+0.228	51%	+0.9
31	Oronde Gadsden	LAC Los Angeles Chargers	28	7	+0.168	+0.175	55%	+0.7
32	Tommy Tremble	CAR Carolina Panthers	25	11	+0.140	+0.159	52%	+0.6
33	Elijah Higgins	ARI Arizona Cardinals	16	3	+0.172	+0.161	56%	+0.5
34	Chig Okonkwo	WAS Washington Commanders	33	3	+0.116	+0.142	45%	+0.4
35	Noah Gray	KC Kansas City Chiefs	21	5	+0.096	+0.087	48%	+0.2
36	Tyler Higbee	LA Los Angeles Rams	28	13	+0.070	+0.108	52%	+0.2
37	Tyler Warren	IND Indianapolis Colts	55	22	+0.111	+0.148	48%	+0.0
38	Terrance Ferguson	LA Los Angeles Rams	21	12	+0.052	+0.044	38%	-0.0
39	Cade Otton	TB Tampa Bay Buccaneers	49	17	+0.092	+0.131	44%	-0.2
40	AJ Barner	SEA Seattle Seahawks	38	12	+0.116	+0.093	61%	-0.4

How it works, and what we do not rank

Where the numbers come from. Free play-by-play data (nflverse) credits three people on every play, the passer, the rusher and the receiver, with the expected points the play added. We total that per player per game, then weight each game toward the present: this season counts fully (with a slow decay across the year), last season counts 30%, two seasons back 10%. New players and players who changed teams are handled the same way as everyone else.

Adjusted for opponent. A carry against a defense that allows a lot is worth less than the same carry against a stingy one. We subtract how far each defense faced sits above or below the league average, weighted the same way, so the "adjusted" column is what a player did against average defenses.

Shrunk, then valued. Adjusted EPA per touch is pulled toward the position average with a prior of 80 touches for backs and 60 for receivers and tight ends, so a dozen great plays do not outrank three hundred good ones. Value multiplies that by weighted touches, above a replacement level set at the 25th percentile of qualifiers, which is why a heavily used, above-average back can rank above a part-timer with a better per-touch number.

What we do not rank, on purpose. Offensive linemen, defenders, kickers and returners get no per-play credit in public data, so we do not rank them; inventing a number would be dishonest. Blocking by tight ends and backs is invisible here too. Positions come from the latest depth charts; a player missing from them is placed by usage (more carries than targets: back; otherwise receiver).

These are not used in the game predictions. The game model rates teams and the named starting quarterback. Whether skill-position rankings would improve the predictions is a study on our list; if they are ever added, the change will be logged and graded like everything else. Nothing here is betting advice.