NFL

Season · 2026

Every team's strength is its current rating (Elo, adjusted EPA, named QB); the remaining schedule is simulated 5,000 times with NFL playoff rules. 48 games already played count as final. Updated Oct 1. · predictions are published to show the model works. nothing here is betting advice.Last updated: predictions Oct 1, 11:02 AM ET · results graded Sep 28, 11:22 PM ET

21%

Super Bowl chance #1 · BUF

12%

Super Bowl chance #2 · SF

11%

Super Bowl chance #3 · JAX

Super Bowl chance #4 · MIN

Projected season

Strength = points better (or worse) than an average team on a neutral field. Range = 10th–90th percentile of 5,000 simulated seasons; several teams will finish outside their own range: that is what a 17-game season does.

#	Team	Now	Strength	Proj. wins	Range	First run	Division	Playoffs	1 seed	Conf. title	Super Bowl
1	BUF Buffalo Bills	3–0	+6.8	12.6	11–15	11.3 +1.3	93%	98%	47%	56%	21%
2	SF San Francisco 49ers	3–0	+5.4	11.8	9–14	10.9 +0.8	50%	92%	29%	40%	12%
3	JAX Jacksonville Jaguars	2–1	+5.2	11.3	9–13	10.6 +0.7	85%	91%	16%	37%	11%
4	LA Los Angeles Rams	1–2	+4.8	9.6	7–12	10.0 -0.4	10%	55%	3%	15%	4%
5	KC Kansas City Chiefs	3–0	+4.3	11.0	9–13	7.4 +3.6	59%	88%	14%	29%	7%
6	BAL Baltimore Ravens	2–1	+4.2	10.7	8–13	10.5 +0.1	46%	80%	9%	25%	6%
7	MIN Minnesota Vikings	3–0	+3.8	11.6	9–14	9.1 +2.5	54%	90%	25%	35%	8%
8	DET Detroit Lions	2–1	+3.8	10.9	9–13	10.7 +0.2	36%	80%	14%	28%	7%
9	SEA Seattle Seahawks	2–1	+3.7	11.3	9–13	11.8 -0.5	40%	87%	21%	31%	7%
10	CIN Cincinnati Bengals	2–1	+2.9	10.5	8–13	10.0 +0.5	37%	75%	6%	18%	4%
11	DEN Denver Broncos	2–1	+2.7	10.3	8–12	9.8 +0.4	30%	72%	5%	15%	3%
12	CHI Chicago Bears	2–1	+1.6	9.3	7–12	8.7 +0.7	9%	46%	2%	9%	2%
13	PHI Philadelphia Eagles	2–1	+1.0	9.3	7–12	10.0 -0.7	52%	60%	3%	14%	2%
14	NE New England Patriots	1–2	+0.6	8.5	6–11	9.9 -1.3	7%	41%	1%	5%	1%
15	ATL Atlanta Falcons	1–2	+0.4	7.9	6–10	8.2 -0.4	36%	40%	0%	8%	1%
16	DAL Dallas Cowboys	1–2	+0.0	8.2	6–10	7.0 +1.2	26%	34%	1%	6%	1%
17	HOU Houston Texans	0–3	-0.3	7.6	5–10	10.4 -2.8	8%	21%	<1%	3%	<1%
18	PIT Pittsburgh Steelers	2–1	-1.3	8.5	6–11	8.2 +0.3	10%	37%	1%	3%	<1%
19	IND Indianapolis Colts	1–2	-1.4	7.7	5–10	7.5 +0.2	8%	23%	<1%	2%	<1%
20	NO New Orleans Saints	1–2	-1.6	7.9	6–10	8.3 -0.4	35%	38%	0%	5%	<1%
21	GB Green Bay Packers	1–2	-1.9	7.2	5–9	9.3 -2.1	1%	11%	<1%	1%	<1%
22	LV Las Vegas Raiders	3–0	-2.0	8.7	6–11	5.4 +3.3	11%	39%	1%	4%	<1%
23	CAR Carolina Panthers	1–2	-2.4	6.8	5–9	6.5 +0.4	20%	22%	<1%	3%	<1%
24	CLE Cleveland Browns	2–1	-3.0	8.3	6–11	6.8 +1.5	8%	29%	<1%	2%	<1%
25	LAC Los Angeles Chargers	0–3	-3.0	5.1	3–7	8.5 -3.5	<1%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
26	WAS Washington Commanders	1–2	-3.8	7.0	5–9	7.2 -0.3	8%	12%	<1%	1%	<1%
27	TB Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0–3	-4.3	5.7	3–8	8.4 -2.7	9%	10%	<1%	1%	<1%
28	NYG New York Giants	2–1	-4.4	7.4	5–10	7.7 -0.3	14%	20%	<1%	2%	<1%
29	ARI Arizona Cardinals	1–2	-4.6	5.8	4–8	5.6 +0.3	<1%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
30	NYJ New York Jets	1–2	-4.9	5.7	4–8	4.4 +1.3	<1%	3%	<1%	<1%	<1%
31	MIA Miami Dolphins	0–3	-6.1	4.5	2–7	6.8 -2.3	<1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
32	TEN Tennessee Titans	0–3	-8.0	3.5	2–5	5.2 -1.8	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Projected standings · AFC

Cut after 7: the playoff cut (4 division winners + 3 wild cards).

#	Team	Wins	Playoffs	Division	1 seed	Conf. title
1	BUF East	12.6	98%	93%	47%	56%
2	JAX South	11.3	91%	85%	16%	37%
3	KC West	11.0	88%	59%	14%	29%
4	BAL North	10.7	80%	46%	9%	25%
5	CIN North	10.5	75%	37%	6%	18%
6	DEN West	10.3	72%	30%	5%	15%
7	LV West	8.7	39%	11%	1%	4%
8	NE East	8.5	41%	7%	1%	5%
9	PIT North	8.5	37%	10%	1%	3%
10	CLE North	8.3	29%	8%	<1%	2%
11	IND South	7.7	23%	8%	<1%	2%
12	HOU South	7.6	21%	8%	<1%	3%
13	NYJ East	5.7	3%	<1%	<1%	<1%
14	LAC West	5.1	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
15	MIA East	4.5	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
16	TEN South	3.5	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Projected standings · NFC

Cut after 7: the playoff cut (4 division winners + 3 wild cards).

#	Team	Wins	Playoffs	Division	1 seed	Conf. title
1	SF West	11.8	92%	50%	29%	40%
2	MIN North	11.6	90%	54%	25%	35%
3	SEA West	11.3	87%	40%	21%	31%
4	DET North	10.9	80%	36%	14%	28%
5	LA West	9.6	55%	10%	3%	15%
6	CHI North	9.3	46%	9%	2%	9%
7	PHI East	9.3	60%	52%	3%	14%
8	DAL East	8.2	34%	26%	1%	6%
9	ATL South	7.9	40%	36%	0%	8%
10	NO South	7.9	38%	35%	0%	5%
11	NYG East	7.4	20%	14%	<1%	2%
12	GB North	7.2	11%	1%	<1%	1%
13	WAS East	7.0	12%	8%	<1%	1%
14	CAR South	6.8	22%	20%	<1%	3%
15	ARI West	5.8	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
16	TB South	5.7	10%	9%	<1%	1%

Up since the first projection (Sep 12)

The first run of the season is kept on the record.

Team	Then	Now	Δ
KC	7.4 (#17)	11.0 (#5)	+3.6
LV	5.4 (#30)	8.7 (#22)	+3.3
MIN	9.1 (#13)	11.6 (#7)	+2.5
CLE	6.8 (#28)	8.3 (#24)	+1.5
NYJ	4.4 (#31)	5.7 (#30)	+1.3
BUF	11.3 (#1)	12.6 (#1)	+1.3

Down since the first projection

Team	Then	Now	Δ
LAC	8.5 (#16)	5.1 (#25)	-3.5
HOU	10.4 (#8)	7.6 (#17)	-2.8
TB	8.4 (#18)	5.7 (#27)	-2.7
MIA	6.8 (#24)	4.5 (#31)	-2.3
GB	9.3 (#12)	7.2 (#21)	-2.1
TEN	5.2 (#32)	3.5 (#32)	-1.8

Projections are estimates with wide error bars; injuries, above all at quarterback, will move them. Refreshed after every run.