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Analyst · Week 4
Is the news layer helping?
Since the layer went live, over 93 graded claims:
- The adjusted forecast has been worse than the stats model alone: net change in squared error (Brier) of +0.334, where negative is better.
- 42 of 93 claims pushed the number toward the actual result.
- It changed the final pick in 1 game, and those flips went 1–0.
This is the whole test. News can't be backtested the way the base model was (2010–25), so the layer earns its place only forward, and only if it lowers the error over many games, not on any one result. Its job is to move the number toward the truth, not to rescue a pick: when it cut a heavy home pick by 10 points and the team still lost, the move was correct (it lowered the error) even though the pick was wrong: the base model had simply started too far above the market. Picks where we disagree with the market's final price are our weaker spot (about 44% in the backtest, versus 68% when we agree): they're flagged “we differ” on the picks table so you can watch them.
What we do with the news, step by step
This page is the news layer's public notebook. In plain terms:
- Before kickoff, every run pulls the feeds and attaches new items to the games they concern. Items published after a game has started are never read: in-game news is not a prediction input.
- The reader turns new items into claims: a type (QB change, key starter out, resting starters…), a team, a player, a direction, and a confidence.
- The filters decide, in the same run, whether a claim is applied or declined. Declined if it is below the confidence floor for its type, if the model already counts it (the player is on the injury report, the QB is already the named starter), or if it is the kind of story that has no place (offseason hires, turf, "limited in practice").
- Applied claims move the probability right then, by a fixed number of points for the type, scaled by confidence, capped. That adjusted number is the pick. "Model 74% → analyst 76%" on a game below means exactly that.
- After the final, every claim is graded, applied or declined: did it point the right way, and did it lower the error? Declined claims are graded as if they had been applied, so we learn whether the filter was right to say no.
- Once a month, with enough graded cases, the rules change for future weeks: a type that keeps hurting loses weight; a rejection reason that keeps "would have helped" gets loosened. Past picks are never touched. Every rule change is dated in the changelog.
A claim only affects the game it is attached to. It does not carry into next week's model: a starter who misses Week 2 is caught by the injury report by then, and the model counts him there.
How it works
Sources: ProFootballTalk, CBS and ESPN feeds; the National Weather Service forecast at kickoff for outdoor stadiums; the nflverse injury report and named starters are what the model already counts. The reader (one language-model call per game, only when there is new news) returns typed claims about things not already counted. A fixed table turns each claim into points, scaled by the reader's confidence, capped per type and ±10 in total. Weather is logged at zero weight until a season of grading says otherwise.
| Claim type | Max points |
|---|---|
| starting QB change not yet in the feed | 6.0 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report | 2.0 |
| key starter returning | 1.5 |
| resting starters / playing backups | 8.0 |
| suspension | 2.0 |
| coaching change | 2.0 |
| motivation / eliminated / nothing to play for | 1.5 |
| locker-room or organizational turmoil | 1.0 |
| unusual travel or schedule disruption | 1.0 |
| weather at kickoff (logged, zero weight) | 0.0 |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) | 0.5 |
Scorecard by claim type
After each final: did the move go the right way, and did it lower the squared error (Brier)? Negative Brier change is good. Types that don't earn their weight get zeroed at season's end.
| Type | Claims | Graded | Avg pts | Helped | Brier Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report | 96 | 58 | 1.9 | 29/58 | +0.021 |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) | 21 | 12 | 0.4 | 5/12 | +0.008 |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed | 12 | 9 | 5.4 | 2/9 | +0.294 |
| motivation / eliminated / nothing to play for | 10 | 7 | 1.1 | 4/7 | +0.007 |
| unusual travel or schedule disruption | 3 | 3 | 0.8 | 1/3 | +0.005 |
| weather at kickoff (logged, zero weight) | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0/2 | +0.000 |
| locker-room or organizational turmoil | 1 | 1 | 0.8 | 0/1 | +0.010 |
| coaching change | 1 | 1 | 1.5 | 1/1 | -0.010 |
Shadow scorecard · what we declined
Rejected claims are kept at zero weight and graded as if applied. If a rejection reason keeps "helping", the rule is too strict; if "other" keeps hurting, it stays out. This is how the layer learns.
| Rejected because | Type | Claims | Graded | Would have helped | Brier Δ if applied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') | key_player_out | 111 | 81 | 38/81 | +0.043 |
| retired: now on the injury report | key_player_out | 61 | 59 | 31/59 | -0.015 |
| confidence 0.75 below floor for other | other | 33 | 27 | 10/27 | +0.018 |
| no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') | qb_change | 30 | 22 | 7/22 | +0.470 |
| return of a player the model was not counting out | key_player_return | 25 | 18 | 11/18 | -0.032 |
| confidence 0.65 below floor for other | other | 14 | 13 | 7/13 | -0.002 |
| confidence 0.70 below floor for other | other | 8 | 4 | 2/4 | +0.001 |
| confidence 0.60 below floor for other | other | 5 | 3 | 2/3 | -0.002 |
| confidence 0.45 below floor for key_player_out | key_player_out | 4 | 2 | 2/2 | -0.009 |
| confidence 0.65 below floor for motivation | motivation | 4 | 4 | 2/4 | -0.007 |
| confidence 0.75 below floor for turmoil | turmoil | 4 | 4 | 3/4 | -0.005 |
| no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') | suspension | 4 | 3 | 1/3 | +0.033 |
| offseason / logistics story, already priced in | motivation | 4 | 4 | 0/4 | +0.047 |
| soft status (limited/questionable/cleared) | key_player_return | 4 | 3 | 2/3 | -0.002 |
| confidence 0.35 below floor for key_player_out | key_player_out | 3 | 2 | 0/2 | +0.012 |
| confidence 0.70 below floor for turmoil | turmoil | 3 | 3 | 2/3 | +0.001 |
| not an in-week coaching change | coaching_change | 3 | 3 | 1/3 | +0.011 |
| offseason / logistics story, already priced in | other | 3 | 3 | 0/3 | +0.010 |
| already on the injury report | key_player_out | 2 | 2 | 1/2 | +0.005 |
| confidence 0.30 below floor for key_player_out | key_player_out | 2 | 2 | 1/2 | -0.001 |
| confidence 0.40 below floor for key_player_out | key_player_out | 2 | 2 | 0/2 | +0.013 |
| retired: schedule feed now names this QB | qb_change | 2 | 2 | 0/2 | +0.104 |
| QB is already the named starter | qb_change | 1 | 1 | 0/1 | +0.063 |
| confidence 0.00 below floor for coaching_change | coaching_change | 1 | 1 | 0/1 | +0.000 |
| confidence 0.00 below floor for qb_change | qb_change | 1 | 0 | – | – |
| confidence 0.30 below floor for other | other | 1 | 1 | 0/1 | +0.002 |
| confidence 0.50 below floor for other | other | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.002 |
| confidence 0.55 below floor for other | other | 1 | 0 | – | – |
| confidence 0.60 below floor for coaching_change | coaching_change | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.007 |
| confidence 0.60 below floor for motivation | motivation | 1 | 1 | 0/1 | +0.006 |
| confidence 0.60 below floor for turmoil | turmoil | 1 | 0 | – | – |
| confidence 0.65 below floor for coaching_change | coaching_change | 1 | 0 | – | – |
| confidence 0.65 below floor for travel | travel | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.005 |
| offseason / logistics story, already priced in | coaching_change | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.010 |
Season: stats model 28–18, model + analyst 29–17; 35 games moved, 1 picks flipped (1 won).
PIT @ CLE Thu 8:15 PM
model 52% home → analyst 56% (+3.9 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 77.0°F, wind 9.0 mph, Cloudy
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Source | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report Ruled out for Thursday vs. Steelers; will miss fourth straight game | PIT | Joey Porter Jr. | 0.99 | +2.0 | api | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Starting center ruled out for Thursday vs. Steelers | CLE | Elgton Jenkins | 0.95 | -1.9 | api | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Placed on injured reserve | PIT | Gennings Dunker | 0.95 | +1.9 | api | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Won't play in Week 3 | PIT | Rico Dowdle | 0.95 | +1.9 | api | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Traded to Cowboys before Week 4; no longer on Steelers roster | PIT | Joey Porter Jr. | 0.95 | +1.9 | api | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') RG suffers bone break | PIT | Spencer Anderson | 0.85 | +1.7 | api | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Browns offensive starter likely to miss Week 4 vs Steelers | CLE | 0.60 | -1.2 | api | pending | |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') OT seen in walking boot after Week 2 loss; status unclear for Week 3 | PIT | Troy Fautanu | 0.60 | +1.2 | api | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') RB Rico Dowdle misses practice Monday after missing Week 3 game | PIT | Rico Dowdle | 0.50 | +1.0 | api | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: confidence 0.45 below floor for key_player_out CB nursing injury after Week 3 win; status unclear for Week 4 | PIT | Jalen Ramsey | 0.45 | +0.9 | api | pending |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) declined: confidence 0.70 below floor for other Starting offensive lineman likely to miss Week 4 vs Steelers | CLE | 0.70 | -0.3 | api | pending | |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) declined: confidence 0.70 below floor for other Broken wrist; hopes to play but status uncertain for Thursday Night Football | PIT | Jalen Ramsey | 0.70 | +0.3 | api | pending |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) declined: confidence 0.70 below floor for other NFL rule requires Steelers to travel to Cleveland by Wednesday; cannot depart Thursday morning as originally considered | PIT | 0.70 | +0.3 | api | pending |
12 news items considered
- Oct 1 · CBS NFL – Week 4 NFL prices, betting price, market margin, totals, for every game, including Browns-Steelers, Texans-Cowboys
- Oct 1 · CBS NFL – Steelers vs. Browns prices, picks, prediction: Best bets, top player props for Thursday Night Football in Week 4
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – There's "a chance" Joey Porter Jr. will play for the Cowboys on Sunday
- Oct 1 · ProFootballTalk – There's "a chance" Joey Porter Jr. will play for the Cowboys on Sunday
- Oct 1 · CBS NFL – Steelers trying to end this nightmare 46-year Thursday night losing streak in Week 4 against Browns
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Aaron Rodgers playing final 'Thursday Night Football' game vs Browns
- Oct 1 · CBS NFL – Use DraftKings promo code to claim $150 in bonus bets by targeting Steelers-Browns, Thursday Night Football
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Joey Porter Jr. trade grades for Cowboys and Steelers after CB gets dealt for future draft picks
- Oct 1 · CBS NFL – Joey Porter Jr. reportedly has 'a chance' to suit up for Cowboys this week vs. Texans
- Oct 1 · CBS NFL – Use BetMGM bonus code CBSSPORTS to get $1,500 bonus bets by targeting Steelers-Browns, Thursday Night Football
- Oct 1 · CBS NFL – Browns vs. Steelers: Winner takes the lead in AFC North in 'Thursday Night Football' matchup
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Mike Tomlin shows off incredibly detailed Minecraft city he built when he was coaching Steelers
IND @ WAS Sun 9:30 AM
model 41% home → analyst 40% (-1.1 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 59.0°F, wind 6.0 mph, Showers And Thunderstorms Likely
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Source | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report Linebacker placed on IR with season-ending neck fracture suffered in Week 3 | WAS | Leo Chenal | 0.95 | -1.9 | api | pending |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) Austin Ekeler signed to active roster, adding veteran RB depth after injuries | WAS | 0.85 | +0.4 | api | pending | |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) Running back signed to active roster after pending physical; adds depth at RB position | WAS | Austin Ekeler | 0.85 | +0.4 | api | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Safety ruled out for Week 4 | WAS | Nick Cross | 0.95 | -1.9 | api | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Guard ruled out for Week 4 | WAS | Sam Cosmi | 0.95 | -1.9 | api | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') LB carted off on backboard with neck injury during Week 3 game vs Seahawks; status unclear for Week 4 | WAS | Leo Chenal | 0.70 | -1.4 | api | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Kicker injured groin in pregame warmups Week 3; played through injury but status for Week 4 uncertain | IND | Spencer Shrader | 0.65 | +1.3 | api | pending |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out QB traveling to London and expected to practice this week after elbow injury; playing prospects vs Colts uncertain but not ruled out | WAS | Jayden Daniels | 0.65 | +1.0 | api | pending |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) declined: confidence 0.75 below floor for other QB with dislocated left elbow opting against surgery until offseason; practicing this week in London but game status uncertain | WAS | Jayden Daniels | 0.75 | -0.4 | api | pending |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) declined: confidence 0.75 below floor for other Game played in London (international travel week); Jayden Daniels injury status uncertain for Week 4 despite traveling with team | WAS | 0.75 | -0.4 | api | pending | |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: confidence 0.00 below floor for qb_change Jayden Daniels dislocated left elbow in Week 2, ruled out for Week 3; Mariota starting vs. Seahawks (not vs. Colts) | WAS | Marcus Mariota | 0.00 | +0.0 | api | pending |
12 news items considered
- Sep 30 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Seahawks All-22 review of the rookies in frustrating loss to Commanders
- Sep 30 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Commanders vs. Colts Wednesday injury report: Rachaad White only player in London not practicing
- Sep 30 · ProFootballTalk – Jayden Daniels is one of 10 Commanders limited in Wednesday's practice
- Sep 30 · ProFootballTalk – Ashton Dulin remains sidelined by ankle injury for Wednesday's practice
- Sep 30 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Sonny Styles wins first NFC defensive player of the week award
- Sep 30 · ProFootballTalk – Sonny Styles wins first NFC defensive player of the week award
- Sep 30 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Commanders QB Jayden Daniels to practice Wednesday after flying to London with team, still 'a chance' he plays vs. Colts in Week 4
- Sep 30 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Dan Quinn: Jayden Daniels not ruled out, wearing brace rest of season
- Sep 30 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Jayden Daniels will be a limited participant in practice
- Sep 30 · ProFootballTalk – Jayden Daniels will be a limited participant in practice
- Sep 30 · Yahoo Sports NFL – For the Colts to win, Daniel Jones must be better
- Sep 30 · ProFootballTalk – Commanders rule out G Sam Cosmi, S Nick Cross for Week 4
TEN @ BAL Sun 1:00 PM
model 87% home → analyst 86% (-0.4 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 63.0°F, wind 6.0 mph, Chance Rain Showers
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Source | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report Center ruled out with fractured fibula, out for extended period | BAL | Jovaughn Gwyn | 0.95 | -1.9 | api | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Offensive lineman placed on injured reserve | TEN | Jackson Slater | 0.95 | +1.9 | api | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Offensive lineman placed on injured reserve | TEN | Fernando Carmona | 0.95 | +1.9 | api | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Center expected to miss extended time with injury from Week 3 game | BAL | Ethan Pocic | 0.90 | -1.8 | api | pending |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) Fractured fibula, out for extended period | BAL | Jovaughn Gwyn | 0.95 | -0.5 | api | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Running back did not practice Wednesday; status unclear but practice absence in week of game | TEN | Tyjae Spears | 0.55 | +1.1 | api | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Running back did not practice Wednesday; status unclear but practice absence in week of game | TEN | Tony Pollard | 0.55 | +1.1 | api | pending |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) declined: confidence 0.75 below floor for other Nor'easter weather threatens Giants-Titans game on East Coast in Week 3 | TEN | 0.75 | +0.4 | api | pending | |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) declined: confidence 0.60 below floor for other Did not practice Wednesday; status unclear for Sunday | TEN | Tyjae Spears | 0.60 | +0.3 | api | pending |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) declined: confidence 0.60 below floor for other Did not practice Wednesday; status unclear for Sunday | TEN | Tony Pollard | 0.60 | +0.3 | api | pending |
12 news items considered
- Oct 1 · CBS NFL – It wouldn't shock me IF ... NFL Week 4: Josh Allen continues historic streak, Cam Ward gets benched
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Carnell Tate, Keldric Faulk lone Titans bright spots
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Last chance to take this week’s Ravens Reacts survey!
- Sep 30 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Special teams let Texas down against Tennessee
- Sep 30 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Ravens Week 4 injury report: LT Ronnie Stanley returns to practice
- Sep 30 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Derrick Henry: Facing the Titans will be "a crazy moment"
- Sep 30 · ProFootballTalk – Derrick Henry: Facing the Titans will be "a crazy moment"
- Sep 30 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Tony Pollard, Tyjae Spears did not practice for Titans on Wednesday
- Sep 30 · ProFootballTalk – Tony Pollard, Tyjae Spears did not practice for Titans on Wednesday
- Sep 30 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Ravens Week 3 film study: LT Carson Vinson makes encouraging first start
- Sep 30 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Robert Saleh: Cam Ward has some PTSD from sacks he took as a rookie
- Sep 30 · ProFootballTalk – Robert Saleh: Cam Ward has some PTSD from sacks he took as a rookie
NE @ BUF Sun 1:00 PM
model 72% home → analyst 76% (+4.5 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 65.0°F, wind 6.0 mph, Mostly Sunny
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Source | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report Offensive lineman placed on injured reserve (thigh injury) on Sept 29 | NE | Greg Van Roten | 0.95 | +1.9 | api | pending |
| motivation / eliminated / nothing to play for Rookie TE announced death of newborn son from birth defect; significant personal tragedy may affect team focus/performance | NE | Eli Raridon | 0.75 | +1.1 | api | pending |
| motivation / eliminated / nothing to play for Eli Raridon (TE) announced death of newborn son; potential emotional impact on team | NE | 0.70 | +1.1 | api | pending | |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) Rookie TE Eli Raridon's newborn son died from anencephaly; significant personal tragedy this week | NE | Eli Raridon | 0.85 | +0.4 | api | pending |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Benched in 4th quarter of Week 3 game vs Jaguars after 3 turnovers; backup took over | NE | Drake Maye | 0.85 | +5.1 | api | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Suffered thigh injury in Week 3; offensive line usage affected | NE | Greg Van Roten | 0.75 | +1.5 | api | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Benched in fourth quarter of Week 3 loss to Jaguars after three turnovers; showing regression and turnover issues | NE | Drake Maye | 0.75 | +1.5 | api | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Left Week 3 game vs Chargers with injury; may need backup cornerback | BUF | Christian Benford | 0.75 | -1.5 | api | pending |
| suspension declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Returning from suspension, Bills must make roster room | BUF | Phidarian Mathis | 0.70 | +1.4 | api | pending |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out Defensive lineman returning from suspension, roster spot to be determined | BUF | Phidarian Mathis | 0.85 | +1.3 | api | pending |
| locker-room or organizational turmoil declined: confidence 0.60 below floor for turmoil Reports of rift between HC Mike Vrabel and QB Drake Maye; both denied but indicates internal friction | NE | 0.60 | +0.6 | api | pending | |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) declined: confidence 0.70 below floor for other Tight end announced death of newborn son; may affect emotional/mental state and availability | NE | Eli Raridon | 0.70 | +0.3 | api | pending |
12 news items considered
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Drake Maye downplays shoulder issue landing him on Patriots injury report
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Patriots vs. Bills series history ahead of Week 4
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – What signing Matt Pryor means for the Patriots
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – NFL power rankings: Bills are No. 1, but nobody knows what to make of the Patriots right now
- Sep 30 · CBS NFL – Mike Vrabel refutes report of alleged rift with Drake Maye after gossip grows legs
- Sep 30 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Bills broadcast map for Week 4 against Patriots
- Sep 30 · ProFootballTalk – Drake Maye: I love playing for Mike Vrabel, that's not going to change
- Sep 30 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Keon Coleman out of practice for Bills, Deone Walker limited
- Sep 30 · ProFootballTalk – Keon Coleman out of practice for Bills, Deone Walker limited
- Sep 30 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Patriots vs. Bills Wednesday injury report: Christian Gonzalez among three sidelined starters
- Sep 30 · Yahoo Sports NFL – CB Christian Gonzalez, QB Drake Maye have shoulder injuries, but Maye says he's fine
- Sep 30 · ProFootballTalk – CB Christian Gonzalez, QB Drake Maye have shoulder injuries, but Maye says he's fine
NYJ @ CHI Sun 1:00 PM
model 77% home → analyst 74% (-2.4 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 62.0°F, wind 5.0 mph, Sunny
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Source | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| starting QB change not yet in the feed Caleb Williams ruled out 3-4 weeks with Grade 2 hamstring strain; Tyson Bagent (named starter for this game) started Week 3 vs Eagles, but Case Keenum reportedly started that game instead | CHI | 0.72 | -4.3 | api | pending | |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Breece Hall ruled out with thigh injury suffered vs Lions | NYJ | Breece Hall | 0.95 | +1.9 | api | pending |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Case Keenum will start at QB for Bears vs. Eagles (Caleb Williams out 3-4 weeks with Grade 2 hamstring strain); Tyson Bagent is backup | CHI | Case Keenum | 0.92 | -5.5 | api | pending |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Caleb Williams recovering from hamstring injury; Bagent may start Sunday vs Jets instead of Case Keenum | CHI | Tyson Bagent | 0.65 | -3.9 | api | pending |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Case Keenum named starter uncertain; Tyson Bagent may start vs Jets with Caleb Williams recovering from hamstring injury | CHI | 0.65 | -3.9 | api | pending | |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Week-to-week with quad injury suffered in Week 3 loss to Lions | NYJ | Breece Hall | 0.85 | +1.7 | api | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Cornerback left Week 3 game with left leg injury, unable to return | CHI | Cam Lewis | 0.80 | -1.6 | api | pending |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out Safety has really good chance of returning to Jets lineup for Week 4 game vs Bears | NYJ | Minkah Fitzpatrick | 0.70 | -1.1 | api | pending |
12 news items considered
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Jets sign OL Kohl Levao to their active roster
- Oct 1 · ProFootballTalk – Jets sign OL Kohl Levao to their active roster
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Bears open 21-day practice window for Kyler Gordon
- Oct 1 · ProFootballTalk – Bears open 21-day practice window for Kyler Gordon
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Hunting Explosives: Revisiting the Bears’ Big Plays from Week 3
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Chicago Bears Offensive Line Analysis vs. Eagles
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Bears coach says ‘direction’s already been made’ about QB choice vs. Jets, but real question remains
- Sep 30 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Bears defense looking to build on strong turnaround entering Week 4
- Sep 30 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Falcons reach 4-year, $78 million extension with DT Gervon Dexter weeks after landing him in a trade
- Sep 30 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Kyler Gordon Activated From PUP, Practice Window Open
- Sep 30 · ProFootballTalk – Ben Johnson: QB on Sunday will be whoever gives us the best chance to win
- Sep 30 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Minkah Fitzpatrick has "really good chance" of returning to Jets lineup this week
JAX @ CIN Sun 1:00 PM
model 50% home → analyst 48% (-2.3 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 64.0°F, wind 2.0 mph, Mostly Sunny
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Source | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report CB placed on IR (announced Sep 29) | CIN | Jalen Davis | 0.95 | -1.9 | api | pending |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) Moved to slot cornerback role amid injury shakeup (announced Sep 30) | CIN | Dax Hill | 0.80 | -0.4 | api | pending |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out WR Mitchell Tinsley being brought back to Bengals this week after being away | CIN | Mitchell Tinsley | 0.85 | +1.3 | api | pending |
12 news items considered
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Charlie Jones chose Giants over chance to return to Cincinnati Bengals
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – 5 Questions with Cincy Jungle: Don’t Forget About Tee Higgins
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Jaguars vs. Bengals: Matchup History Through the Decades
- Oct 1 · ProFootballTalk – The Bengals are the only AFC team Trevor Lawrence has never beaten
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Losing at Pittsburgh will not define the 2026 Cincinnati Bengals
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Bengals News: Joe Burrow happy for Mitchell Tinsley return
- Sep 30 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Dax Hill is moving to slot cornerback amid Bengals’ injury shakeup
- Sep 30 · Yahoo Sports NFL – The Number Crunch: What went wrong for the Patriots against Jacksonville
- Sep 30 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Week 4 fantasy defense rankings: Top D/ST streamers, starts
- Sep 30 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Patriots confident in bounce-back skills heading into Bills matchup
- Sep 30 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Aaron Rodgers ties Ben Roethlisberger with 165 career wins, fifth-most ever
- Sep 30 · ProFootballTalk – Aaron Rodgers ties Ben Roethlisberger with 165 career wins, fifth-most ever
DAL @ HOU Sun 1:00 PM
model 59% home → analyst 62% (+3.0 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 80.0°F, wind 10.0 mph, Chance Showers And Thunderstorms
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Source | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report Defensive lineman placed on injured reserve Wednesday | HOU | Mario Edwards | 0.95 | -1.9 | api | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Defensive tackle placed on injured reserve Wednesday | DAL | Jonathan Bullard | 0.95 | +1.9 | api | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Safety placed on injured reserve Wednesday | DAL | Jalen Thompson | 0.95 | +1.9 | api | pending |
| motivation / eliminated / nothing to play for Cowboys lost heartbreaking last-second game to Ravens in Brazil with clock management mistakes; facing short week with emotional toll | DAL | 0.70 | +1.1 | api | pending | |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Texans WR Nico Collins unavailable in Week 3; status for Week 4 vs Cowboys unclear | HOU | Nico Collins | 0.65 | -1.3 | api | pending |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out Acquired via trade from Steelers on Oct 1; has chance to play Sunday after missing first 3 weeks | DAL | Joey Porter Jr. | 0.70 | -1.1 | api | pending |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out Returns to Texans practice after injury absence | HOU | Nico Collins | 0.70 | +1.1 | api | pending |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) declined: confidence 0.75 below floor for other Cowboys secondary significantly depleted with multiple injuries | DAL | 0.75 | +0.4 | api | pending |
12 news items considered
- Oct 1 · CBS NFL – Week 4 NFL prices, betting price, market margin, totals, for every game, including Browns-Steelers, Texans-Cowboys
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – There's "a chance" Joey Porter Jr. will play for the Cowboys on Sunday
- Oct 1 · ProFootballTalk – There's "a chance" Joey Porter Jr. will play for the Cowboys on Sunday
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Report: Cowboys will not be immediately extending Joey Porter Jr.
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Value of Things: By the Numbers
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Joey Porter Jr. trade grades for Cowboys and Steelers after CB gets dealt for future draft picks
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Cowboys could face a franchise-tag dilemma between George Pickens, Joey Porter Jr.
- Oct 1 · ProFootballTalk – Cowboys could face a franchise-tag dilemma between George Pickens, Joey Porter Jr.
- Oct 1 · CBS NFL – Joey Porter Jr. reportedly has 'a chance' to suit up for Cowboys this week vs. Texans
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Report: No new contract for Joey Porter Jr. in Dallas (at least for now)
- Oct 1 · ProFootballTalk – Report: No new contract for Joey Porter Jr. in Dallas (at least for now)
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Cowboys steal lockdown boundary corner
ARI @ NYG Sun 1:00 PM
model 60% home → analyst 60% (+0.7 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 63.0°F, wind 8.0 mph, Partly Sunny
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Source | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| starting QB change not yet in the feed Giants acquired J.J. McCarthy from Vikings in trade; Jaxson Dart ruled out for season | NYG | J.J. McCarthy | 0.75 | +4.5 | api | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Placed on IR with torn ACL and meniscus; surgery scheduled | NYG | Brian Burns | 0.95 | -1.9 | api | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Season-ending knee injury; Giants traded for J.J. McCarthy as replacement | NYG | Jaxson Dart | 0.95 | -1.9 | api | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Outside linebacker did not practice this week with ankle injury; questionable to return status suggests game-time decision but practice absence is notable | NYG | Brian Burns | 0.60 | -1.2 | api | pending |
12 news items considered
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Arizona Cardinals news: Cardinals get Arch Manning to lead franchise in new 2027 mock
- Oct 1 · CBS NFL – Week 4 NFL prices, picks, predictions: Computer model backs Giants and Seahawks
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Charlie Jones chose Giants over chance to return to Cincinnati Bengals
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Report: Brian Burns tore his meniscus in addition to his ACL
- Oct 1 · ProFootballTalk – Report: Brian Burns tore his meniscus in addition to his ACL
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – What signing Matt Pryor means for the Patriots
- Oct 1 · CBS NFL – Russell Wilson explains why Giants' controversial J.J. McCarthy trade could be a 'great' fit
- Sep 30 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Giants bringing back Jihad Ward off Vikings practice squad
- Sep 30 · CBS NFL – Week 4 NFL prices, picks, predictions: Computer model backs Giants and Seahawks
- Sep 30 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Trump again lauds 'handsome' Jaxson Dart in bizarre digression
- Sep 30 · Yahoo Sports NFL – NY Giants’ injury report: Andrew Thomas, Tyrone Tracy miss practice
- Sep 30 · ProFootballTalk – John Harbaugh on releasing OBJ: "It just wasn't working for us"
LA @ PHI Sun 1:00 PM
model 45% home → analyst 49% (+4.0 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 65.0°F, wind 5.0 mph, Chance Rain Showers
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Source | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report Ruled out for second consecutive game; expected to miss up to 6 weeks following surgery | LA | Myles Garrett | 0.95 | +1.9 | api | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Cornerback suffered dislocated shoulder in Week 3; may be back in October but out for Week 4 vs Eagles | LA | Jaylen Watson | 0.85 | +1.7 | api | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Defensive tackle ruled out; sits out of practice with sore back | LA | Aaron Donald | 0.75 | +1.5 | api | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Cornerback suffered dislocated shoulder in Week 3; may return in October but status uncertain for Week 4 vs Eagles | LA | Jaylen Watson | 0.75 | +1.5 | api | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Underwent concussion evaluation during Monday night loss to Bears; status for Sunday unclear pending protocol clearance | PHI | Jalen Hurts | 0.65 | -1.3 | api | pending |
| key starter returning declined: soft status (limited/questionable/cleared) Expected to play Sunday after missing two games with hip injury | LA | Puka Nacua | 0.85 | -1.3 | api | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Tight end injured during Sunday's loss to Broncos; status unclear but reported as injured this week | LA | Terrance Ferguson | 0.60 | +1.2 | api | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Tight end injured during Sunday's loss to Broncos; status unclear but reported as injured this week | LA | Colby Parkinson | 0.60 | +1.2 | api | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: confidence 0.35 below floor for key_player_out Sore back, day-to-day status; missed practice Wednesday | LA | Aaron Donald | 0.35 | +0.7 | api | pending |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) declined: confidence 0.65 below floor for other QB underwent concussion evaluation during MNF game vs Bears; cleared to play but evaluation protocol may affect availability/performance this week | PHI | Jalen Hurts | 0.65 | -0.3 | api | pending |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) declined: confidence 0.55 below floor for other Odell Beckham Jr. released by Giants; potential landing spot includes Rams as free agent addition | LA | 0.55 | -0.3 | api | pending |
12 news items considered
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Matthew Stafford close to becoming the first QB with 150 touchdowns on two teams
- Oct 1 · ProFootballTalk – Matthew Stafford close to becoming the first QB with 150 touchdowns on two teams
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – NFL says DPI call against Rams in Week 3 was unnecessary
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – NFL Week 4 picks: Rams defeat Eagles; Chiefs topple Raiders
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Chicago Bears Offensive Line Analysis vs. Eagles
- Oct 1 · CBS NFL – NFL Week 4 injuries: Steelers' Joey Porter Jr. ruled out, Rams' Aaron Donald sits out of practice
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – The Rams defense isn’t the problem
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Five Rams missed practice on Wednesday
- Oct 1 · ProFootballTalk – Five Rams missed practice on Wednesday
- Oct 1 · ProFootballTalk – Jalen Carter has a hairline fracture in his wrist
- Sep 30 · ProFootballTalk – Zack Baun, DeVonta Smith miss practice for Eagles
- Sep 30 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Aaron Donald misses practice with a sore back
GB @ TB Sun 1:00 PM
model 45% home → analyst 42% (-3.7 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 86.0°F, wind 7.0 mph, Mostly Sunny
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Source | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| starting QB change not yet in the feed Baker Mayfield (starting QB) dislocated right thumb vs Minnesota, will not play Sunday; Jalon Daniels confirmed as starter | TB | 0.95 | -5.7 | api | pending | |
| key starter out, not on the injury report WR placed on injured reserve for season-ending neck surgery | GB | Jayden Reed | 0.99 | +2.0 | api | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report WR placed on injured reserve | TB | Jalen McMillan | 0.95 | +1.9 | api | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Right tackle placed on injured reserve Monday | GB | Zach Bako-Bewele | 0.95 | +1.9 | api | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Rookie defensive starter ruled out for Buccaneers vs Vikings | TB | Josiah Trotter | 0.95 | -1.9 | api | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Rookie defensive starter ruled out for Buccaneers vs Vikings | TB | Rueben Bain | 0.95 | -1.9 | api | pending |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Undrafted rookie Jalen Daniels to start for Buccaneers; Baker Mayfield out minimum three weeks with thumb dislocation | TB | Jalen Daniels | 0.99 | -5.9 | api | pending |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Baker Mayfield out minimum 3 weeks with thumb dislocation; undrafted rookie Daniels to start vs. Green Bay | TB | Jalon Daniels | 0.95 | -5.7 | api | pending |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Baker Mayfield out minimum 3 weeks with thumb dislocation; Jalen Daniels (rookie) expected to start | TB | 0.95 | -5.7 | api | pending | |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Dislocated thumb in Week 3 game vs Vikings; MRI scheduled to determine return timeline | TB | Baker Mayfield | 0.85 | -1.7 | api | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') WR had MRI on left knee after aggravating injury in Week 3; status unclear | TB | Jalen McMillan | 0.65 | -1.3 | api | pending |
12 news items considered
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Packers film room: Lukas Van Ness is off to a strong start in 2026
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Here comes Kevin Zeitler to save the day
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Buccaneers vs. Packers: Initial injury report for Week 4
- Sep 30 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Chris Godwin, Yaya Diaby among Buccaneers out of practice Wednesday
- Sep 30 · ProFootballTalk – Chris Godwin, Yaya Diaby among Buccaneers out of practice Wednesday
- Sep 30 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Former Badgers standout offensive lineman to sign with Packers
- Sep 30 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Packers Injury Report: Jayden Reed goes on injured reserve
- Sep 30 · CBS NFL – Tyreek Hill teases potential NFL comeback: Former All-Pro WR seeks 'cold weather' landing spot
- Sep 30 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Despite revenue concerns, Packers don't plan to expand Lambeau Field
- Sep 30 · ProFootballTalk – Despite revenue concerns, Packers don't plan to expand Lambeau Field
- Sep 30 · CBS NFL – Packers' Jayden Reed out for season, set to undergo surgery for neck injury
- Sep 30 · Yahoo Sports NFL – In news that surprises absolutely no one, Bijan Robinson is the NFC Offensive Player of the Week
MIA @ MIN Sun 4:05 PM
model 81% home → analyst 80% (-1.5 pts)
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Source | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report Running back placed on injured reserve with torn ACL; season over | MIA | De'Von Achane | 1.00 | +2.0 | api | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Tight end placed on injured reserve with torn biceps | MIN | Josh Oliver | 1.00 | -2.0 | api | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Ruled out with ankle injury from Week 3 game vs Buccaneers | MIN | Justin Jefferson | 0.95 | -1.9 | api | pending |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) Brian Flores' Vikings defense blitzing at historic 71% rate (nearly 5 pass rushers per snap) facing former team Miami | MIN | 0.85 | +0.4 | api | pending |
12 news items considered
- Oct 1 · CBS NFL – Brian Flores' diabolical blitz rates -- equaling nearly 100 tons of pressure -- fueling Vikings' 2026 rampage
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Buccaneers vs. Packers: Initial injury report for Week 4
- Oct 1 · ProFootballTalk – 3-0 Vikings are a game away from a dubious record
- Sep 30 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Aaron Jones limited at practice Wednesday
- Sep 30 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Giants bringing back Jihad Ward off Vikings practice squad
- Sep 30 · Yahoo Sports NFL – 2026 Minnesota Golden Gophers in the NFL: Week 3
- Sep 30 · ProFootballTalk – Justin Jefferson won't practice Wednesday with ankle sprain
- Sep 30 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Vikings Announce Five Practice Squad Signings
- Sep 30 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Myles Price Named NFC Special Teams Player of the Week
- Sep 30 · ProFootballTalk – Myles Price named NFC special teams player of the week
- Sep 30 · CBS NFL – One NFL team is facing a nightmare early schedule not seen in the last 40 seasons
- Sep 30 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Miami Dolphins fan confidence survey in Week 4
KC @ LV Sun 4:25 PM
model 38% home → analyst 36% (-1.9 pts)
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Source | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report WR placed on IR | LV | Jack Bech | 0.95 | -1.9 | api | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') WR broke forearm in Week 3 win, headed to injured reserve | LV | Jack Bech | 0.95 | -1.9 | api | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Starting left tackle unavailable; Andy Reid has not provided return timeline as of Sept 29 | KC | Josh Simmons | 0.85 | +1.7 | api | pending |
12 news items considered
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – NFL Power Rankings: Raiders surge ahead of Week 4
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Patrick Mahomes: Raiders' 3-0 record is for real, expecting a hostile environment Sunday
- Oct 1 · ProFootballTalk – Patrick Mahomes: Raiders' 3-0 record is for real, expecting a hostile environment Sunday
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Patrick Mahomes values ‘bragging rights’ over Maxx Crosby
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Week 4 NFL picks against the market margin, predictions for every game: Raiders ready for their biggest game in Las Vegas vs. Chiefs
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Mark Davis built Aces' WNBA dynasty. Can Raiders finally follow? | Opinion
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – NFL Week 4 picks: Rams defeat Eagles; Chiefs topple Raiders
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Pleasant surprises of the NFL season so far: Brock Purdy for MVP and actual Raiders competence
- Oct 1 · ProFootballTalk – Kirk Cousins has seven consecutive victories as a starter
- Sep 30 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Week 4 is time to get Ashton Jeanty going
- Sep 30 · ProFootballTalk – Andy Reid on having most wins in Las Vegas of any coach: I didn't know that and I don't care
- Sep 30 · Yahoo Sports NFL – ‘Which’ Wednesday: Is talent or coaching driving the new-look Chiefs offense?
LAC @ SEA Sun 4:25 PM
model 76% home → analyst 74% (-1.7 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 66.0°F, wind 5.0 mph, Mostly Sunny
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Source | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report Offensive lineman placed on injured reserve Saturday | LAC | Trey Pipkins III | 0.95 | +1.9 | api | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Starting safety out against Commanders; practice squad replacement called up | SEA | Ty Okada | 0.90 | -1.8 | api | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Starting safety out against Commanders; practice squad replacement called up | SEA | Julian Love | 0.90 | -1.8 | api | pending |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Sam Darnold cleared and set to start for Seahawks in Week 3 after glute/hip injury; Drew Lock was the named starter | SEA | Sam Darnold | 0.85 | +5.1 | api | pending |
12 news items considered
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Los Angeles Chargers news: Should the Bolts look into signing Tyreek Hill?
- Oct 1 · CBS NFL – Seahawks Jaxon Smith-Njigba reveals the most difficult cornerback he's ever played against
- Oct 1 · CBS NFL – Week 4 NFL prices, picks, predictions: Computer model backs Giants and Seahawks
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – NFL Week 4 picks: Rams defeat Eagles; Chiefs topple Raiders
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Seahawks Week 4 injury report: Julian Love returns, Ty Okada remains out
- Oct 1 · ProFootballTalk – Seahawks S Julian Love returns to limited practice
- Sep 30 · ProFootballTalk – Mike Macdonald on Rashid Shaheed's limited production: "The ball will find him"
- Sep 30 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Seahawks All-22 review of the rookies in frustrating loss to Commanders
- Sep 30 · CBS NFL – Week 4 NFL prices, picks, predictions: Computer model backs Giants and Seahawks
- Sep 30 · CBS NFL – Seattle WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba says Ohio State's Jeremiah Smith is 'like the LeBron James' of all-time Buckeyes
- Sep 30 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Seahawks sign linebacker to practice squad, release D’Anthony Bell
- Sep 30 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Jaxon Smith-Njigba was interviewed by Russell Wilson, and he had a priceless quote
DEN @ SF Sun 4:25 PM
model 65% home → analyst 63% (-1.5 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 86.0°F, wind 1.0 mph, Mostly Sunny
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Source | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report Ruled out with rib injury suffered vs Cardinals on Sep 27 | SF | Mike Evans | 0.95 | -1.9 | api | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Defensive end out for Sunday with calf injury, expected to miss more time | SF | Nick Bosa | 0.95 | -1.9 | api | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Rookie RB placed on IR with high ankle sprain | DEN | Jonah Coleman | 0.95 | +1.9 | api | pending |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) DE signed to practice squad Monday to address D-line injuries | SF | Matt Judon | 0.80 | +0.4 | api | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Left game on cart vs Cardinals Week 3; status unclear for Week 4 | SF | Trent Williams | 0.75 | -1.5 | api | pending |
| coaching change declined: confidence 0.65 below floor for coaching_change Sean Payton handed away playcalling duties | DEN | 0.65 | +1.3 | api | pending | |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') 49ers WR injuries mentioned; Dante Pettis signed to practice squad due to WR depth issues | SF | 0.60 | -1.2 | api | pending | |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out DE practice window opened this week; eligible to make season debut in Week 5 | SF | Mykel Williams | 0.75 | +1.1 | api | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Won't practice Wednesday | SF | Dre Greenlaw | 0.55 | -1.1 | api | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: confidence 0.45 below floor for key_player_out WR considered day-to-day with rib injury after leaving Sunday's game on cart; status unclear for Week 4 | SF | Mike Evans | 0.45 | -0.9 | api | pending |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) declined: confidence 0.75 below floor for other 49ers signed DE Matt Judon to practice squad Monday due to D-line injuries; Mykel Williams practice window opening this week | SF | 0.75 | +0.4 | api | pending |
12 news items considered
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Christian McCaffrey has chance to surpass Hall of Famer on Sunday
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Broncos vs. 49ers: 3 Things to Watch in Week 4
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Kyle Shanahan downplays Broncos play caller change, calls talk ‘overrated’
- Oct 1 · CBS NFL – NFL Week 4 upset alert: Why these five pick could easily lose, including the 49ers
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Broncos defense bracing for tough matchup versus versatile 49ers offense
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Golden Nuggets: Welcome to Brocktober
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Christian McCaffrey resting Wednesday
- Sep 30 · ProFootballTalk – Marvin Mims, Jaylen Waddle had full participation Wednesday
- Sep 30 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Kyle Shanahan insists ‘there was no relationship issue’ with Dante Pettis after 49ers reunion
- Sep 30 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Sean McVay says NFL told him pass interference should not have been called on Josh Wallace
- Sep 30 · ProFootballTalk – Sean McVay says NFL told him pass interference should not have been called on Josh Wallace
- Sep 30 · Yahoo Sports NFL – NFL apparently told Rams that pass interference penalty on Josh Wallace shouldn't have been called late in loss to Broncos
DET @ CAR Sun 8:20 PM
model 38% home → analyst 34% (-4.0 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 66.0°F, wind 5.0 mph, Chance Rain Showers
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Source | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report Placed on IR with groin injury, will miss extended time | CAR | Mike Jackson | 0.95 | -1.9 | api | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Placed on IR with torn quad, will miss significant time | CAR | Jaycee Horn | 0.95 | -1.9 | api | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report G ruled out at least Week 4 with UCL injury | CAR | Damien Lewis | 0.92 | -1.8 | api | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Starting offensive lineman out at least Week 4 with UCL injury | CAR | Damien Lewis | 0.95 | -1.9 | api | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Starting QB sore with lower body injury, undergoing tests this week | CAR | Bryce Young | 0.70 | -1.4 | api | pending |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) declined: confidence 0.75 below floor for other QB sore with lower body injury, undergoing tests this week | CAR | Bryce Young | 0.75 | -0.4 | api | pending |
12 news items considered
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Detroit Lions announce low-cost, same-day ticket program
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Panthers vs Lions: Storylines
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – 5 Qs Lions vs. Panthers preview: Bryce Young’s inconsistencies + impact of injuries
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Cowboys, not the Lions, trading for Steelers CB Joey Porter Jr.
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Panthers are all sorts of banged up heading into Week 4
- Sep 30 · ProFootballTalk – Jameson Williams won't be charged, following assault investigation
- Sep 30 · ProFootballTalk – Bryce Young fully participates in Panthers practice, but Jalen Coker and Xavier Legette sit out
- Sep 30 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Lions coach Dan Campbell weighs in on reviewable pass interference
- Sep 30 · ProFootballTalk – Ben Johnson called Jared Goff after latest mobility dig
- Sep 30 · CBS NFL – Panthers put starting cornerbacks Jaycee Horn, Mike Jackson on IR: Options for Carolina include Trevon Diggs
- Sep 30 · ProFootballTalk – Panthers place starting CBs Jaycee Horn, Mike Jackson on IR
- Sep 30 · Yahoo Sports NFL – 5 Lions vs. Panthers thoughts after watching Carolina’s loss to Browns
ATL @ NO Mon 8:15 PM
model 50% home · no adjustment
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Source | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') RB left Week 3 game vs Raiders with hamstring injury; status for Week 4 unclear but injury occurred within 7 days | NO | Travis Etienne | 0.65 | -1.3 | api | pending |
12 news items considered
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Week 3 Saints Film Review: Highlights from the All 22
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – The Saints came home after Katrina. What happened next changed New Orleans
- Sep 30 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Falcons sign Gervon Dexter to 4 year, $78 million deal
- Sep 30 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Falcons DT Gervon Dexter agrees to four-year extension
- Sep 30 · ProFootballTalk – Falcons DT Gervon Dexter agrees to four-year extension
- Sep 30 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Falcons reach 4-year, $78 million extension with DT Gervon Dexter weeks after landing him in a trade
- Sep 30 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Are the Falcons the best team in the NFC South? ft. Aaron Freeman: Falcoholic Live, Ep391
- Sep 30 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Saints vs. Raiders Game MVP: Who stood out in Week 3?
- Sep 30 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Falcons sign LB Brian Asamoah
- Sep 30 · Yahoo Sports NFL – A look back at the history between the Saints and Falcons
- Sep 30 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Saints power rankings entering Week 4
- Sep 29 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Malcolm Koonce comes alive in 4th quarter of Las Vegas Raiders’ Week 3 win over New Orleans Saints