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Analyst · Week 2
Is the news layer helping?
Since the layer went live, over 93 graded claims:
- The adjusted forecast has been worse than the stats model alone: net change in squared error (Brier) of +0.334, where negative is better.
- 42 of 93 claims pushed the number toward the actual result.
- It changed the final pick in 1 game, and those flips went 1–0.
This is the whole test. News can't be backtested the way the base model was (2010–25), so the layer earns its place only forward, and only if it lowers the error over many games, not on any one result. Its job is to move the number toward the truth, not to rescue a pick: when it cut a heavy home pick by 10 points and the team still lost, the move was correct (it lowered the error) even though the pick was wrong: the base model had simply started too far above the market. Picks where we disagree with the market's final price are our weaker spot (about 44% in the backtest, versus 68% when we agree): they're flagged “we differ” on the picks table so you can watch them.
What we do with the news, step by step
This page is the news layer's public notebook. In plain terms:
- Before kickoff, every run pulls the feeds and attaches new items to the games they concern. Items published after a game has started are never read: in-game news is not a prediction input.
- The reader turns new items into claims: a type (QB change, key starter out, resting starters…), a team, a player, a direction, and a confidence.
- The filters decide, in the same run, whether a claim is applied or declined. Declined if it is below the confidence floor for its type, if the model already counts it (the player is on the injury report, the QB is already the named starter), or if it is the kind of story that has no place (offseason hires, turf, "limited in practice").
- Applied claims move the probability right then, by a fixed number of points for the type, scaled by confidence, capped. That adjusted number is the pick. "Model 74% → analyst 76%" on a game below means exactly that.
- After the final, every claim is graded, applied or declined: did it point the right way, and did it lower the error? Declined claims are graded as if they had been applied, so we learn whether the filter was right to say no.
- Once a month, with enough graded cases, the rules change for future weeks: a type that keeps hurting loses weight; a rejection reason that keeps "would have helped" gets loosened. Past picks are never touched. Every rule change is dated in the changelog.
A claim only affects the game it is attached to. It does not carry into next week's model: a starter who misses Week 2 is caught by the injury report by then, and the model counts him there.
How it works
Sources: ProFootballTalk, CBS and ESPN feeds; the National Weather Service forecast at kickoff for outdoor stadiums; the nflverse injury report and named starters are what the model already counts. The reader (one language-model call per game, only when there is new news) returns typed claims about things not already counted. A fixed table turns each claim into points, scaled by the reader's confidence, capped per type and ±10 in total. Weather is logged at zero weight until a season of grading says otherwise.
| Claim type | Max points |
|---|---|
| starting QB change not yet in the feed | 6.0 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report | 2.0 |
| key starter returning | 1.5 |
| resting starters / playing backups | 8.0 |
| suspension | 2.0 |
| coaching change | 2.0 |
| motivation / eliminated / nothing to play for | 1.5 |
| locker-room or organizational turmoil | 1.0 |
| unusual travel or schedule disruption | 1.0 |
| weather at kickoff (logged, zero weight) | 0.0 |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) | 0.5 |
Scorecard by claim type
After each final: did the move go the right way, and did it lower the squared error (Brier)? Negative Brier change is good. Types that don't earn their weight get zeroed at season's end.
| Type | Claims | Graded | Avg pts | Helped | Brier Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report | 96 | 58 | 1.9 | 29/58 | +0.021 |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) | 21 | 12 | 0.4 | 5/12 | +0.008 |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed | 12 | 9 | 5.4 | 2/9 | +0.294 |
| motivation / eliminated / nothing to play for | 10 | 7 | 1.1 | 4/7 | +0.007 |
| unusual travel or schedule disruption | 3 | 3 | 0.8 | 1/3 | +0.005 |
| weather at kickoff (logged, zero weight) | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0/2 | +0.000 |
| locker-room or organizational turmoil | 1 | 1 | 0.8 | 0/1 | +0.010 |
| coaching change | 1 | 1 | 1.5 | 1/1 | -0.010 |
Shadow scorecard · what we declined
Rejected claims are kept at zero weight and graded as if applied. If a rejection reason keeps "helping", the rule is too strict; if "other" keeps hurting, it stays out. This is how the layer learns.
| Rejected because | Type | Claims | Graded | Would have helped | Brier Δ if applied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') | key_player_out | 111 | 81 | 38/81 | +0.043 |
| retired: now on the injury report | key_player_out | 61 | 59 | 31/59 | -0.015 |
| confidence 0.75 below floor for other | other | 33 | 27 | 10/27 | +0.018 |
| no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') | qb_change | 30 | 22 | 7/22 | +0.470 |
| return of a player the model was not counting out | key_player_return | 25 | 18 | 11/18 | -0.032 |
| confidence 0.65 below floor for other | other | 14 | 13 | 7/13 | -0.002 |
| confidence 0.70 below floor for other | other | 8 | 4 | 2/4 | +0.001 |
| confidence 0.60 below floor for other | other | 5 | 3 | 2/3 | -0.002 |
| confidence 0.45 below floor for key_player_out | key_player_out | 4 | 2 | 2/2 | -0.009 |
| confidence 0.65 below floor for motivation | motivation | 4 | 4 | 2/4 | -0.007 |
| confidence 0.75 below floor for turmoil | turmoil | 4 | 4 | 3/4 | -0.005 |
| no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') | suspension | 4 | 3 | 1/3 | +0.033 |
| offseason / logistics story, already priced in | motivation | 4 | 4 | 0/4 | +0.047 |
| soft status (limited/questionable/cleared) | key_player_return | 4 | 3 | 2/3 | -0.002 |
| confidence 0.35 below floor for key_player_out | key_player_out | 3 | 2 | 0/2 | +0.012 |
| confidence 0.70 below floor for turmoil | turmoil | 3 | 3 | 2/3 | +0.001 |
| not an in-week coaching change | coaching_change | 3 | 3 | 1/3 | +0.011 |
| offseason / logistics story, already priced in | other | 3 | 3 | 0/3 | +0.010 |
| already on the injury report | key_player_out | 2 | 2 | 1/2 | +0.005 |
| confidence 0.30 below floor for key_player_out | key_player_out | 2 | 2 | 1/2 | -0.001 |
| confidence 0.40 below floor for key_player_out | key_player_out | 2 | 2 | 0/2 | +0.013 |
| retired: schedule feed now names this QB | qb_change | 2 | 2 | 0/2 | +0.104 |
| QB is already the named starter | qb_change | 1 | 1 | 0/1 | +0.063 |
| confidence 0.00 below floor for coaching_change | coaching_change | 1 | 1 | 0/1 | +0.000 |
| confidence 0.00 below floor for qb_change | qb_change | 1 | 0 | – | – |
| confidence 0.30 below floor for other | other | 1 | 1 | 0/1 | +0.002 |
| confidence 0.50 below floor for other | other | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.002 |
| confidence 0.55 below floor for other | other | 1 | 0 | – | – |
| confidence 0.60 below floor for coaching_change | coaching_change | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.007 |
| confidence 0.60 below floor for motivation | motivation | 1 | 1 | 0/1 | +0.006 |
| confidence 0.60 below floor for turmoil | turmoil | 1 | 0 | – | – |
| confidence 0.65 below floor for coaching_change | coaching_change | 1 | 0 | – | – |
| confidence 0.65 below floor for travel | travel | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.005 |
| offseason / logistics story, already priced in | coaching_change | 1 | 1 | 1/1 | -0.010 |
Season: stats model 28–18, model + analyst 29–17; 35 games moved, 1 picks flipped (1 won).
DET @ BUF Thu 8:15 PM
model 66% home → analyst 68% (+1.5 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 68.0°F, wind 5.0 mph, Mostly Cloudy
· final 31–41
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Source | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report DL ruled out after injuring hip in pregame | BUF | Ed Oliver | 0.95 | -1.9 | api | hurt +0.013 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report RB had back surgery, will miss significant time (estimated 12 weeks) | DET | Isiah Pacheco | 0.95 | +1.9 | api | helped -0.012 |
| coaching change Joe Brady hired as head coach after Sean McDermott fired | BUF | 0.75 | +1.5 | api | helped -0.010 | |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report LG Christian Mahogany out for Thursday vs. Bills | DET | Christian Mahogany | 0.95 | +1.9 | api | helped -0.012 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report RT Blake Miller out for Thursday vs. Bills | DET | Blake Miller | 0.95 | +1.9 | api | helped -0.012 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Starting LG carted off with knee injury in Week 1 vs Saints | DET | Christian Mahogany | 0.85 | +1.7 | api | helped -0.011 |
| coaching change declined: offseason / logistics story, already priced in Joe Brady hired as new head coach after Bills fired Sean McDermott following playoff loss | BUF | 0.75 | +1.5 | api | helped -0.010 | |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) declined: confidence 0.65 below floor for other New stadium grass field had major deformations; replacement field in use for first regular-season game | BUF | 0.65 | -0.3 | api | hurt +0.002 | |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) declined: confidence 0.60 below floor for other DL missed Tuesday practice with illness; status unclear for Thursday | BUF | T.J. Sanders | 0.60 | -0.3 | api | hurt +0.002 |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) declined: confidence 0.50 below floor for other Rookie RT has new knee injury but expressed optimism about playing vs. Bills | DET | Blake Miller | 0.50 | +0.2 | api | helped -0.002 |
12 news items considered
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Drake Maye downplays shoulder issue landing him on Patriots injury report
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Detroit Lions announce low-cost, same-day ticket program
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Panthers vs Lions: Storylines
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Patriots vs. Bills series history ahead of Week 4
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – 5 Qs Lions vs. Panthers preview: Bryce Young’s inconsistencies + impact of injuries
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – NFL power rankings: Bills are No. 1, but nobody knows what to make of the Patriots right now
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Cowboys, not the Lions, trading for Steelers CB Joey Porter Jr.
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Panthers are all sorts of banged up heading into Week 4
- Sep 30 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Bills broadcast map for Week 4 against Patriots
- Sep 30 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Keon Coleman out of practice for Bills, Deone Walker limited
- Sep 30 · ProFootballTalk – Keon Coleman out of practice for Bills, Deone Walker limited
- Sep 30 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Patriots vs. Bills Wednesday injury report: Christian Gonzalez among three sidelined starters
CAR @ ATL Sun 1:00 PM
model 63% home → analyst 53% (-10.0 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 82.0°F, wind 5.0 mph, Mostly Sunny
· final 34–3
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Source | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| starting QB change not yet in the feed Falcons have not named starting QB for Week 2; Tua Tagovailoa remains out of practice (Wed/Thu), Cooper Rush splitting reps with Michael Penix Jr., undrafted rookie Jack Strand not ruled out | ATL | 0.95 | -5.7 | api | helped -0.071 | |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed Cooper Rush to start for Falcons in Week 1; Tua Tagovailoa ruled out with oblique injury sustained in practice Thursday | ATL | Cooper Rush | 0.95 | -5.7 | api | helped -0.071 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report DL Da'Shawn Hand placed on IR with season-ending quad injury from Week 1 | ATL | Da'Shawn Hand | 0.95 | -1.9 | api | helped -0.024 |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Tua Tagovailoa sustained injury in practice before Week 1; Cooper Rush started Week 1 vs Steelers | ATL | Tua Tagovailoa | 0.95 | -5.7 | api | helped -0.071 |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Tua Tagovailoa injured in practice; Cooper Rush to start Week 1 vs. Steelers (reported Sep 13) | ATL | Cooper Rush | 0.95 | -5.7 | api | helped -0.071 |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Falcons have 'no updates' on Week 2 QB situation; starter Tua Tagovailoa's status unclear after Week 1 loss | ATL | 0.75 | -4.5 | api | helped -0.056 | |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Right guard in concussion protocol after Week 1, status uncertain for Week 2 | ATL | Chris Lindstrom | 0.70 | -1.4 | api | helped -0.018 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Panthers defense allowed 59 points in Week 1 loss to Bears; defensive performance concerns heading into Week 2 | CAR | 0.65 | +1.3 | api | hurt +0.016 |
12 news items considered
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Panthers vs Lions: Storylines
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – 5 Qs Lions vs. Panthers preview: Bryce Young’s inconsistencies + impact of injuries
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Panthers are all sorts of banged up heading into Week 4
- Sep 30 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Falcons sign Gervon Dexter to 4 year, $78 million deal
- Sep 30 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Falcons DT Gervon Dexter agrees to four-year extension
- Sep 30 · ProFootballTalk – Falcons DT Gervon Dexter agrees to four-year extension
- Sep 30 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Falcons reach 4-year, $78 million extension with DT Gervon Dexter weeks after landing him in a trade
- Sep 30 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Are the Falcons the best team in the NFC South? ft. Aaron Freeman: Falcoholic Live, Ep391
- Sep 30 · ProFootballTalk – Bryce Young fully participates in Panthers practice, but Jalen Coker and Xavier Legette sit out
- Sep 30 · CBS NFL – Panthers put starting cornerbacks Jaycee Horn, Mike Jackson on IR: Options for Carolina include Trevon Diggs
- Sep 30 · ProFootballTalk – Panthers place starting CBs Jaycee Horn, Mike Jackson on IR
- Sep 30 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Falcons sign LB Brian Asamoah
NO @ BAL Sun 1:00 PM
model 72% home → analyst 73% (+1.6 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 78.0°F, wind 10.0 mph, Scattered Rain Showers
· final 24–17
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Source | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report Rookie WR placed on IR with fractured wrist, will miss at least a month | BAL | Ja'Kobi Lane | 0.95 | -1.9 | api | helped -0.027 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Placed on IR, will miss multiple weeks | NO | Audric Estime | 0.95 | +1.9 | api | hurt +0.027 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report RB not expected to play Sunday vs. Ravens | NO | Alvin Kamara | 0.80 | +1.6 | api | hurt +0.023 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Listed questionable but practice squad WR elevation signals likely absence from Baltimore game | NO | Chris Olave | 0.75 | +1.5 | api | hurt +0.021 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Rookie WR suffered wrist injury in Week 1, will not return to game | BAL | Ja'Kobi Lane | 0.70 | -1.4 | api | helped -0.020 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out All-Pro edge rusher will play through broken finger | BAL | Trey Hendrickson | 0.92 | +1.4 | api | hurt +0.020 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Ravens WR hamstring injury from Week 1; status day-to-day but not ruled out for Week 2 | BAL | Zay Flowers | 0.65 | -1.3 | api | helped -0.019 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') WR exited Week 1 game with hamstring injury; status for Week 2 unclear but injury occurred in-week | BAL | Zay Flowers | 0.65 | -1.3 | api | helped -0.019 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out Running back making 2026 debut after practicing fully; Saints feel good about him playing | NO | Alvin Kamara | 0.85 | -1.3 | api | helped -0.018 |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) declined: confidence 0.75 below floor for other Ravens worked out WR Brandin Cooks on Thursday; exploring receiver help with Flowers hamstring injury and Lane on IR | BAL | 0.75 | +0.4 | api | hurt +0.005 | |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) declined: confidence 0.75 below floor for other WR hamstring injury called day-to-day by coach Minter after Week 1; status uncertain for Week 2 | BAL | Zay Flowers | 0.75 | -0.4 | api | helped -0.005 |
12 news items considered
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Week 3 Saints Film Review: Highlights from the All 22
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – The Saints came home after Katrina. What happened next changed New Orleans
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Last chance to take this week’s Ravens Reacts survey!
- Sep 30 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Ravens Week 4 injury report: LT Ronnie Stanley returns to practice
- Sep 30 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Derrick Henry: Facing the Titans will be "a crazy moment"
- Sep 30 · ProFootballTalk – Derrick Henry: Facing the Titans will be "a crazy moment"
- Sep 30 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Ravens Week 3 film study: LT Carson Vinson makes encouraging first start
- Sep 30 · ProFootballTalk – Lamar Jackson "dealing with something small," wound up limited at practice
- Sep 30 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Ravens QB Lamar Jackson misses 1st practice of Week 4
- Sep 30 · ProFootballTalk – Lamar Jackson is not practicing Wednesday
- Sep 30 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Ravens K Tyler Loop named the AFC special teams player of the week
- Sep 30 · ProFootballTalk – Ravens K Tyler Loop named the AFC special teams player of the week
MIN @ CHI Sun 1:00 PM
model 54% home → analyst 61% (+7.6 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 68.0°F, wind 15.0 mph, Showers And Thunderstorms
· final 9–3
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Source | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| starting QB change not yet in the feed Kyler Murray ruled out with concussion in Week 1; Schefter reports not likely to play Week 2 vs Bears | MIN | 0.95 | +5.7 | api | hurt +0.063 | |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Placed on IR with thumb injury after Week 1 | MIN | Jordan Mason | 0.95 | +1.9 | api | hurt +0.021 |
| weather at kickoff (logged, zero weight) wind 20 mph at kickoff (Showers And Thunderstorms) | CHI | 1.00 | +0.0 | weather | pending +0.000 | |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: retired: schedule feed now names this QB Kyler Murray ruled out for Week 2 with concussion protocol; Wentz to start | MIN | Carson Wentz | 0.95 | +5.7 | api | hurt +0.063 |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: QB is already the named starter Murray ruled out with concussion in Week 1 vs Packers; Carson Wentz entered the game | MIN | Kyler Murray | 0.95 | +5.7 | api | hurt +0.063 |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Kyler Murray remained limited in Thursday practice; Wentz set to start if Murray does not clear concussion protocol | MIN | Carson Wentz | 0.75 | +4.5 | api | hurt +0.050 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Ruled out for Week 2 vs. Bears; remains in concussion protocol after Week 1 injury | MIN | Kyler Murray | 0.95 | +1.9 | api | hurt +0.021 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Concussion suffered in Week 1; unlikely to play against Bears per Schefter | MIN | Kyler Murray | 0.92 | +1.8 | api | hurt +0.020 |
12 news items considered
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Bears open 21-day practice window for Kyler Gordon
- Oct 1 · ProFootballTalk – Bears open 21-day practice window for Kyler Gordon
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Hunting Explosives: Revisiting the Bears’ Big Plays from Week 3
- Oct 1 · CBS NFL – Brian Flores' diabolical blitz rates -- equaling nearly 100 tons of pressure -- fueling Vikings' 2026 rampage
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Buccaneers vs. Packers: Initial injury report for Week 4
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Chicago Bears Offensive Line Analysis vs. Eagles
- Oct 1 · ProFootballTalk – 3-0 Vikings are a game away from a dubious record
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Bears coach says ‘direction’s already been made’ about QB choice vs. Jets, but real question remains
- Sep 30 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Bears defense looking to build on strong turnaround entering Week 4
- Sep 30 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Falcons reach 4-year, $78 million extension with DT Gervon Dexter weeks after landing him in a trade
- Sep 30 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Kyler Gordon Activated From PUP, Practice Window Open
- Sep 30 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Aaron Jones limited at practice Wednesday
CIN @ HOU Sun 1:00 PM
model 56% home → analyst 54% (-1.9 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 89.0°F, wind 5.0 mph, Mostly Sunny
· final 20–6
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Source | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report Placed on IR with shoulder injury from Week 1 game vs Bills | HOU | Henry To'oTo'o | 0.95 | -1.9 | api | helped -0.021 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Ruled out for Week 2 with hamstring injury suffered in Wednesday practice | HOU | Nico Collins | 0.99 | -2.0 | api | helped -0.022 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Hamstring injury sustained in Wednesday practice; limited participant status indicates game availability uncertain | HOU | Nico Collins | 0.65 | -1.3 | api | helped -0.014 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out DE making season debut Sunday vs. Houston | CIN | Shemar Stewart | 0.85 | -1.3 | api | helped -0.014 |
12 news items considered
- Oct 1 · CBS NFL – Week 4 NFL prices, betting price, market margin, totals, for every game, including Browns-Steelers, Texans-Cowboys
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Value of Things: By the Numbers
- Oct 1 · CBS NFL – Joey Porter Jr. reportedly has 'a chance' to suit up for Cowboys this week vs. Texans
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Charlie Jones chose Giants over chance to return to Cincinnati Bengals
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – 5 Questions with Cincy Jungle: Don’t Forget About Tee Higgins
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Jaguars vs. Bengals: Matchup History Through the Decades
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Are the Texans already at the “win or go home” point of 2026?
- Oct 1 · CBS NFL – NFL Week 4 picks: Our experts face off on Steelers at Browns, Cowboys vs. Texans and more
- Oct 1 · ProFootballTalk – The Bengals are the only AFC team Trevor Lawrence has never beaten
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Losing at Pittsburgh will not define the 2026 Cincinnati Bengals
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Bengals News: Joe Burrow happy for Mitchell Tinsley return
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Houston Texans News: Thursday October 1, 2026
PIT @ NE Sun 1:00 PM
model 68% home → analyst 66% (-2.3 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 58.0°F, wind 5.0 mph, Chance Light Rain
· final 3–20
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Source | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report Wide receiver placed on injured reserve, expected to miss more than 4 games | NE | A.J. Brown | 0.95 | -1.9 | api | hurt +0.013 |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) NFL banned Patriots' video board tactic of creating optical illusion for opposing kickers | NE | 0.85 | -0.4 | api | hurt +0.003 | |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report WR ruled out vs. Patriots with foot injury | PIT | Michael Pittman Jr. | 0.95 | +1.9 | api | helped -0.011 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report WR ruled out with foot injury for Week 2 vs. Patriots | PIT | Michael Pittman Jr. | 0.95 | +1.9 | api | helped -0.011 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report WR ruled out vs. Patriots with foot injury | PIT | Michael Pittman Jr. | 0.95 | +1.9 | api | helped -0.011 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report WR ruled out with foot injury for Week 2 vs. Patriots | PIT | Michael Pittman Jr. | 0.95 | +1.9 | api | helped -0.011 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report WR ruled out vs. Patriots with foot injury | PIT | Michael Pittman Jr. | 0.95 | +1.9 | api | helped -0.011 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Cornerback ruled out for Week 2 vs. Patriots (back issue) | PIT | Joey Porter Jr. | 0.95 | +1.9 | api | helped -0.011 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') OT left Week 1 game vs. Falcons with injury | PIT | Troy Fautanu | 0.85 | +1.7 | api | helped -0.010 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: confidence 0.45 below floor for key_player_out CB exited Thursday practice early with medical staff; status unclear but practice participation limited due to conditioning | PIT | Joey Porter Jr. | 0.45 | +0.9 | api | helped -0.006 |
| locker-room or organizational turmoil declined: confidence 0.75 below floor for turmoil CB in contract dispute with team, missed Week 1, back issue reported during practice ramp-up this week | PIT | Joey Porter Jr. | 0.75 | +0.8 | api | helped -0.005 |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) declined: offseason / logistics story, already priced in NFL banned Patriots' video board tactic to confuse opposing kickers; removes home field advantage on field goals | NE | 0.85 | -0.4 | api | hurt +0.003 |
12 news items considered
- Oct 1 · CBS NFL – Week 4 NFL prices, betting price, market margin, totals, for every game, including Browns-Steelers, Texans-Cowboys
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Drake Maye downplays shoulder issue landing him on Patriots injury report
- Oct 1 · CBS NFL – Steelers vs. Browns prices, picks, prediction: Best bets, top player props for Thursday Night Football in Week 4
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – There's "a chance" Joey Porter Jr. will play for the Cowboys on Sunday
- Oct 1 · ProFootballTalk – There's "a chance" Joey Porter Jr. will play for the Cowboys on Sunday
- Oct 1 · CBS NFL – Steelers trying to end this nightmare 46-year Thursday night losing streak in Week 4 against Browns
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Aaron Rodgers playing final 'Thursday Night Football' game vs Browns
- Oct 1 · CBS NFL – Use DraftKings promo code to claim $150 in bonus bets by targeting Steelers-Browns, Thursday Night Football
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Joey Porter Jr. trade grades for Cowboys and Steelers after CB gets dealt for future draft picks
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Patriots vs. Bills series history ahead of Week 4
- Oct 1 · CBS NFL – Joey Porter Jr. reportedly has 'a chance' to suit up for Cowboys this week vs. Texans
- Oct 1 · CBS NFL – Use BetMGM bonus code CBSSPORTS to get $1,500 bonus bets by targeting Steelers-Browns, Thursday Night Football
GB @ NYJ Sun 1:00 PM
model 37% home · no adjustment
· forecast at kickoff: 66.0°F, wind 10.0 mph, Periods Of Light Rain
· final 20–17
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Source | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Safety ruled out for Week 2 vs Packers | NYJ | Minkah Fitzpatrick | 0.95 | +1.9 | api | hurt +0.015 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report WR week-to-week with ankle sprain from Week 1; expected to miss time | NYJ | Omar Cooper | 0.85 | -1.7 | api | helped -0.012 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Defensive lineman downgraded to non-participant due to knee injury and concussion | GB | Javon Hargrave | 0.80 | +1.6 | api | hurt +0.012 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') WR week-to-week with ankle sprain from Week 1, first-round pick | NYJ | Omar Cooper Jr. | 0.80 | -1.6 | api | helped -0.012 |
| key starter returning declined: soft status (limited/questionable/cleared) Removed from injury report, cleared to play | GB | Lukas Van Ness | 0.90 | -1.4 | api | helped -0.010 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Key defensive contributor added to injury report Thursday | NYJ | Will McDonald | 0.65 | -1.3 | api | helped -0.009 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Cornerback suffered injury in first quarter of Week 1 vs. Titans; status unclear for Week 2 | NYJ | Jarvis Brownlee | 0.60 | -1.2 | api | helped -0.009 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Safety suffered injury in first quarter of Week 1 vs. Titans; status unclear for Week 2 | NYJ | Minkah Fitzpatrick | 0.60 | -1.2 | api | helped -0.009 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Wide receiver suffered injury in first quarter of Week 1 vs. Titans; status unclear for Week 2 | NYJ | Omar Cooper | 0.60 | -1.2 | api | helped -0.009 |
| motivation / eliminated / nothing to play for declined: confidence 0.65 below floor for motivation Packers suffered late-game meltdown loss to Vikings (39-22) after controversial fourth-down call by LaFleur; team facing adversity entering Week 2 | GB | 0.65 | +1.0 | api | hurt +0.007 |
12 news items considered
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Packers film room: Lukas Van Ness is off to a strong start in 2026
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Jets sign OL Kohl Levao to their active roster
- Oct 1 · ProFootballTalk – Jets sign OL Kohl Levao to their active roster
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Here comes Kevin Zeitler to save the day
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Buccaneers vs. Packers: Initial injury report for Week 4
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Bears coach says ‘direction’s already been made’ about QB choice vs. Jets, but real question remains
- Sep 30 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Chris Godwin, Yaya Diaby among Buccaneers out of practice Wednesday
- Sep 30 · ProFootballTalk – Chris Godwin, Yaya Diaby among Buccaneers out of practice Wednesday
- Sep 30 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Former Badgers standout offensive lineman to sign with Packers
- Sep 30 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Packers Injury Report: Jayden Reed goes on injured reserve
- Sep 30 · CBS NFL – Tyreek Hill teases potential NFL comeback: Former All-Pro WR seeks 'cold weather' landing spot
- Sep 30 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Despite revenue concerns, Packers don't plan to expand Lambeau Field
CLE @ TB Sun 1:00 PM
model 70% home → analyst 74% (+3.7 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 86.0°F, wind 5.0 mph, Mostly Sunny
· final 23–19
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Source | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report RB placed on IR (Tuesday, Sept 15) | CLE | Dylan Sampson | 0.95 | +1.9 | api | hurt +0.026 |
| motivation / eliminated / nothing to play for Browns plan to re-evaluate QB position after Week 2, with Shedeur Sanders potentially starting Week 3 at home if Watson struggles | CLE | 0.75 | +1.1 | api | hurt +0.016 | |
| motivation / eliminated / nothing to play for Playing against former team (drafted #1 overall by Browns in 2018); has game circled since schedule release | TB | Baker Mayfield | 0.75 | +1.1 | api | hurt +0.016 |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) QB reported headset issues in Week 1 game, couldn't hear play calls from sideline | TB | Baker Mayfield | 0.85 | -0.4 | api | helped -0.006 |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') HC Todd Monken said Browns will 'evaluate everything' before facing Tampa Bay after Watson's poor Week 1 performance (34-10 loss); starter status uncertain | CLE | Deshaun Watson | 0.65 | +3.9 | api | hurt +0.054 |
| suspension declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') TE will not return to Browns or NFL this year; league suspension | CLE | Dae'Quan Wright | 0.90 | +1.8 | api | hurt +0.025 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Cornerback did not practice Thursday with ankle injury; already thin at cornerback position | CLE | Tyson Campbell | 0.65 | +1.3 | api | hurt +0.018 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out WR McMillan fully participated in Thursday practice after missing Week 1 with knee injury, on track to play | TB | Jalen McMillan | 0.85 | +1.3 | api | hurt +0.018 |
| motivation / eliminated / nothing to play for declined: offseason / logistics story, already priced in Mayfield stated team has 'bad taste in mouth' from Week 1 loss; wants to get it out against former team Cleveland | TB | Baker Mayfield | 0.75 | +1.1 | api | hurt +0.016 |
| motivation / eliminated / nothing to play for declined: offseason / logistics story, already priced in Baker Mayfield said Buccaneers have 'bad taste in mouth' from Week 1 loss, want to get it out against Cleveland next | TB | 0.70 | +1.1 | api | hurt +0.015 | |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) declined: confidence 0.75 below floor for other Baker Mayfield had headset issues in Week 1 vs Cincinnati, couldn't hear play calls | TB | 0.75 | -0.4 | api | helped -0.005 | |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) declined: confidence 0.65 below floor for other CB did not practice Thursday with ankle injury; status unclear for Sunday | CLE | Tyson Campbell | 0.65 | +0.3 | api | hurt +0.005 |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) declined: confidence 0.65 below floor for other Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield had headset communication issues in Week 1 loss to Bengals, couldn't hear play calls in helmet. | TB | Baker Mayfield | 0.65 | -0.3 | api | helped -0.005 |
12 news items considered
- Oct 1 · CBS NFL – Week 4 NFL prices, betting price, market margin, totals, for every game, including Browns-Steelers, Texans-Cowboys
- Oct 1 · CBS NFL – Steelers vs. Browns prices, picks, prediction: Best bets, top player props for Thursday Night Football in Week 4
- Oct 1 · CBS NFL – Steelers trying to end this nightmare 46-year Thursday night losing streak in Week 4 against Browns
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Aaron Rodgers playing final 'Thursday Night Football' game vs Browns
- Oct 1 · CBS NFL – Use DraftKings promo code to claim $150 in bonus bets by targeting Steelers-Browns, Thursday Night Football
- Oct 1 · CBS NFL – Use BetMGM bonus code CBSSPORTS to get $1,500 bonus bets by targeting Steelers-Browns, Thursday Night Football
- Oct 1 · CBS NFL – Browns vs. Steelers: Winner takes the lead in AFC North in 'Thursday Night Football' matchup
- Oct 1 · CBS NFL – NFL Week 4 picks: Our experts face off on Steelers at Browns, Cowboys vs. Texans and more
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cleveland Browns: How to watch Thursday Night Football tonight
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – AFC North: Steelers trade away cornerback the night before Browns TNF matchup
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – What channel is the Browns vs Steelers on today? Time, schedule to watch Thursday Night Football
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Buccaneers vs. Packers: Initial injury report for Week 4
PHI @ TEN Sun 1:00 PM
model 27% home → analyst 29% (+1.9 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 92.0°F, wind 5.0 mph, Mostly Sunny
· final 24–20
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Source | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report Guard placed on injured reserve after Week 1 | PHI | Landon Dickerson | 0.95 | +1.9 | api | hurt +0.011 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Edge rusher ruled out for Eagles-Titans | PHI | Jonathan Greenard | 0.95 | +1.9 | api | hurt +0.011 |
| coaching change declined: not an in-week coaching change Robert Saleh hired as head coach, makes debut against former team Jets in Week 1 | TEN | 0.70 | +1.4 | api | hurt +0.008 | |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) declined: confidence 0.75 below floor for other Eagles moving Cam Jurgens from center to left guard, Drew Kendall starting at center | PHI | 0.75 | +0.4 | api | hurt +0.002 | |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) declined: confidence 0.75 below floor for other Defensive tackle will wear a cast on wrist against Titans | PHI | Jalen Carter | 0.75 | +0.4 | api | hurt +0.002 |
12 news items considered
- Oct 1 · CBS NFL – It wouldn't shock me IF ... NFL Week 4: Josh Allen continues historic streak, Cam Ward gets benched
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Carnell Tate, Keldric Faulk lone Titans bright spots
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – NFL Week 4 picks: Rams defeat Eagles; Chiefs topple Raiders
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Chicago Bears Offensive Line Analysis vs. Eagles
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Five Rams missed practice on Wednesday
- Oct 1 · ProFootballTalk – Five Rams missed practice on Wednesday
- Oct 1 · ProFootballTalk – Jalen Carter has a hairline fracture in his wrist
- Sep 30 · ProFootballTalk – Zack Baun, DeVonta Smith miss practice for Eagles
- Sep 30 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Special teams let Texas down against Tennessee
- Sep 30 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Ravens Week 4 injury report: LT Ronnie Stanley returns to practice
- Sep 30 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Derrick Henry: Facing the Titans will be "a crazy moment"
- Sep 30 · ProFootballTalk – Derrick Henry: Facing the Titans will be "a crazy moment"
JAX @ DEN Sun 4:05 PM
model 50% home → analyst 51% (+1.0 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 72.0°F, wind 7.0 mph, Mostly Sunny
· final 13–20
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Source | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report Running back ruled out/inactive for Week 2 game vs Jacksonville | DEN | RJ Harvey | 0.99 | -2.0 | api | hurt +0.020 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Placed on IR Wednesday | JAX | B.J. Green | 0.95 | +1.9 | api | helped -0.019 |
| motivation / eliminated / nothing to play for Sean Payton called Week 1 loss to Chiefs a 'slap in the face'; Bo Nix called it a 'nasty wakeup call' | DEN | 0.70 | +1.1 | api | helped -0.010 | |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Deshaun Watson started vs. Browns (first start in almost 2 years, not Trevor Lawrence) | JAX | Deshaun Watson | 0.90 | +5.4 | api | helped -0.051 |
| coaching change declined: not an in-week coaching change Todd Monken named head coach (debut vs. Browns Week 1) | JAX | 0.85 | -1.7 | api | hurt +0.017 | |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Running back unlikely to play vs. Jaguars; hamstring issue | DEN | R.J. Harvey | 0.75 | -1.5 | api | hurt +0.015 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Wide receiver held out of practice Thursday with foot injury; status unclear for Sunday | DEN | Marvin Mims Jr. | 0.65 | -1.3 | api | hurt +0.013 |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) declined: confidence 0.75 below floor for other Special teams roster disruption: B.J. Green placed on IR, Jack Kiser signed to 53-man roster Wednesday | JAX | 0.75 | +0.4 | api | helped -0.004 | |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) declined: confidence 0.30 below floor for other Bo Nix suffered a season-ending foot injury in 2025 AFC Championship; coaches contacted Drew Brees about joining for that game | DEN | 0.30 | -0.1 | api | hurt +0.002 |
12 news items considered
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Christian McCaffrey has chance to surpass Hall of Famer on Sunday
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Broncos vs. 49ers: 3 Things to Watch in Week 4
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Kyle Shanahan downplays Broncos play caller change, calls talk ‘overrated’
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – 5 Questions with Cincy Jungle: Don’t Forget About Tee Higgins
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Jaguars vs. Bengals: Matchup History Through the Decades
- Oct 1 · ProFootballTalk – The Bengals are the only AFC team Trevor Lawrence has never beaten
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Broncos defense bracing for tough matchup versus versatile 49ers offense
- Sep 30 · ProFootballTalk – Marvin Mims, Jaylen Waddle had full participation Wednesday
- Sep 30 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Sean McVay says NFL told him pass interference should not have been called on Josh Wallace
- Sep 30 · ProFootballTalk – Sean McVay says NFL told him pass interference should not have been called on Josh Wallace
- Sep 30 · Yahoo Sports NFL – NFL apparently told Rams that pass interference penalty on Josh Wallace shouldn't have been called late in loss to Broncos
- Sep 30 · ProFootballTalk – Rams-Broncos attracts 20.8 million
LV @ LAC Sun 4:05 PM
model 66% home → analyst 64% (-1.9 pts)
· final 26–14
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Source | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report WR placed on Injured Reserve with hamstring injury from Week 1; out at least one month | LAC | KeAndre Lambert-Smith | 0.95 | -1.9 | api | helped -0.025 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Listed out vs. Raiders | LAC | Elijah Molden | 0.95 | +1.9 | api | hurt +0.025 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Doubtful to play Week 2; missed Week 1 after knee surgery (meniscus trim) | LV | Brock Bowers | 0.85 | +1.7 | api | hurt +0.023 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Wide receiver exited Week 1 game after taking big hit over the middle; injury status unclear for Week 2 | LAC | Ladd McConkey | 0.70 | -1.4 | api | helped -0.019 |
12 news items considered
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – NFL Power Rankings: Raiders surge ahead of Week 4
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Patrick Mahomes: Raiders' 3-0 record is for real, expecting a hostile environment Sunday
- Oct 1 · ProFootballTalk – Patrick Mahomes: Raiders' 3-0 record is for real, expecting a hostile environment Sunday
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Los Angeles Chargers news: Should the Bolts look into signing Tyreek Hill?
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Week 4 NFL picks against the market margin, predictions for every game: Raiders ready for their biggest game in Las Vegas vs. Chiefs
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Mark Davis built Aces' WNBA dynasty. Can Raiders finally follow? | Opinion
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – NFL Week 4 picks: Rams defeat Eagles; Chiefs topple Raiders
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Pleasant surprises of the NFL season so far: Brock Purdy for MVP and actual Raiders competence
- Oct 1 · ProFootballTalk – Kirk Cousins has seven consecutive victories as a starter
- Sep 30 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Week 4 is time to get Ashton Jeanty going
- Sep 30 · ProFootballTalk – Andy Reid on having most wins in Las Vegas of any coach: I didn't know that and I don't care
- Sep 30 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Raiders injury news: Jackson Powers-Johnson not practicing Wednesday
SEA @ ARI Sun 4:25 PM
model 32% home → analyst 31% (-0.4 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 97.0°F, wind 5.0 mph, Partly Sunny
· final 31–7
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Source | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report Placed on injured reserve after Week 1 | ARI | Kitan Crawford | 0.95 | -1.9 | api | helped -0.012 |
| motivation / eliminated / nothing to play for Cardinals defeated Chargers 26-14 in Week 1 upset (9.5-point pick), building momentum heading into Week 2 | ARI | 0.75 | +1.1 | api | hurt +0.007 | |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) Third-year guard Haynes will start at left guard in place of injured Anthony Bradford | SEA | Christian Haynes | 0.85 | +0.4 | api | hurt +0.003 |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Darnold out with injury suffered in Week 1 vs. New England; Drew Lock is replacement starter | SEA | Sam Darnold | 0.95 | +5.7 | api | hurt +0.041 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Ruled out for Week 2 with glute injury; Drew Lock is named starter | SEA | Sam Darnold | 1.00 | +2.0 | api | hurt +0.013 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Ruled out of Cardinals game with hip and knee injury; Christian Haynes starting at left tackle | SEA | Anthony Bradford | 0.95 | +1.9 | api | hurt +0.013 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Seahawks QB injured in Week 1; could miss 4-6 weeks | SEA | Sam Darnold | 0.95 | +1.9 | api | hurt +0.013 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Placed on injured reserve early in season | ARI | Myles Garrett | 0.95 | -1.9 | api | helped -0.012 |
| motivation / eliminated / nothing to play for declined: offseason / logistics story, already priced in Cardinals upset Chargers 26-14 in Week 1 under new coach Mike LaFleur; first win for new regime builds confidence | ARI | 0.75 | +1.1 | api | hurt +0.007 | |
| motivation / eliminated / nothing to play for declined: confidence 0.65 below floor for motivation Seahawks legend Fredd Young died at 64; emotional impact on team this week | SEA | 0.65 | +1.0 | api | hurt +0.006 | |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: confidence 0.40 below floor for key_player_out WR limited in practice Wednesday with back injury; status unclear for Sunday | SEA | Cooper Kupp | 0.40 | +0.8 | api | hurt +0.005 |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) declined: confidence 0.65 below floor for other WR limited in practice Wednesday with back injury; not on official injury report yet | SEA | Cooper Kupp | 0.65 | +0.3 | api | hurt +0.002 |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) declined: confidence 0.65 below floor for other Both starting guards on injury report; status unclear heading into Week 2 | ARI | 0.65 | -0.3 | api | helped -0.002 |
12 news items considered
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Arizona Cardinals news: Cardinals get Arch Manning to lead franchise in new 2027 mock
- Oct 1 · CBS NFL – Seahawks Jaxon Smith-Njigba reveals the most difficult cornerback he's ever played against
- Oct 1 · CBS NFL – Week 4 NFL prices, picks, predictions: Computer model backs Giants and Seahawks
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – What signing Matt Pryor means for the Patriots
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Seahawks Week 4 injury report: Julian Love returns, Ty Okada remains out
- Oct 1 · ProFootballTalk – Seahawks S Julian Love returns to limited practice
- Sep 30 · ProFootballTalk – Mike Macdonald on Rashid Shaheed's limited production: "The ball will find him"
- Sep 30 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Seahawks All-22 review of the rookies in frustrating loss to Commanders
- Sep 30 · CBS NFL – Week 4 NFL prices, picks, predictions: Computer model backs Giants and Seahawks
- Sep 30 · CBS NFL – Seattle WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba says Ohio State's Jeremiah Smith is 'like the LeBron James' of all-time Buckeyes
- Sep 30 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Seahawks sign linebacker to practice squad, release D’Anthony Bell
- Sep 30 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Giants vs. Cardinals: 6 storylines for Week 4
WAS @ DAL Sun 4:25 PM
model 57% home → analyst 56% (-0.4 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 94.0°F, wind 5.0 mph, Partly Sunny
· final 20–37
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Source | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report Linebacker placed on injured reserve with hamstring injury from Week 1 vs Eagles | WAS | Jordan Magee | 0.95 | +1.9 | api | helped -0.016 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report RB out for the year after hip surgery | DAL | Malik Davis | 0.95 | -1.9 | api | hurt +0.017 |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) Veteran OL signed to bolster interior offensive line ahead of Week 2 game in Dallas | WAS | Lucas Patrick | 0.80 | -0.4 | api | hurt +0.004 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Ruled out for Week 2 vs Cowboys | WAS | Chig Okonkwo | 0.99 | +2.0 | api | helped -0.017 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Ruled out for Week 2 vs Cowboys | WAS | Frankie Luvu | 0.99 | +2.0 | api | helped -0.017 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Safety will miss 1-2 weeks with fractured forearm suffered in Week 1 | DAL | Malik Hooker | 0.95 | -1.9 | api | hurt +0.017 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Linebacker will miss 1-2 weeks with hamstring injury suffered in Week 1 | DAL | DeMarvion Overshown | 0.95 | -1.9 | api | hurt +0.017 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Safety fractured bone in forearm in Week 1; unclear return timeline | DAL | Malik Hooker | 0.75 | -1.5 | api | hurt +0.013 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out EDGE reinstated Monday after serving one-game suspension | WAS | Dorance Armstrong | 0.90 | -1.4 | api | hurt +0.012 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') LB groin strain, status up in the air for Week 2 road game vs Cowboys | WAS | Frankie Luvu | 0.65 | +1.3 | api | helped -0.011 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Tight end held out of Wednesday practice; status for Week 2 vs Dallas unclear | WAS | Chig Okonkwo | 0.60 | +1.2 | api | helped -0.010 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out Returns to Dallas on Sunday after missing Week 1 | DAL | Dorance Armstrong | 0.75 | +1.1 | api | helped -0.010 |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) declined: confidence 0.75 below floor for other Jaishawn Barham to start at middle linebacker and wear green dot (defensive play-caller) with DeMarvion Overshown out | DAL | 0.75 | -0.4 | api | hurt +0.003 | |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) declined: confidence 0.75 below floor for other Rookie LB starting at middle linebacker with green dot (play-calling), replacing injured Overshown | DAL | Jaishawn Barham | 0.75 | -0.4 | api | hurt +0.003 |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) declined: confidence 0.75 below floor for other Commanders signed veteran OL Lucas Patrick to address interior offensive line depth ahead of Week 2 vs Dallas | WAS | 0.75 | -0.4 | api | hurt +0.003 | |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) declined: confidence 0.75 below floor for other Veteran OL Lucas Patrick signed to roster ahead of Week 2 vs Dallas | WAS | Lucas Patrick | 0.75 | -0.4 | api | hurt +0.003 |
12 news items considered
- Oct 1 · CBS NFL – Week 4 NFL prices, betting price, market margin, totals, for every game, including Browns-Steelers, Texans-Cowboys
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – There's "a chance" Joey Porter Jr. will play for the Cowboys on Sunday
- Oct 1 · ProFootballTalk – There's "a chance" Joey Porter Jr. will play for the Cowboys on Sunday
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Report: Cowboys will not be immediately extending Joey Porter Jr.
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Value of Things: By the Numbers
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Joey Porter Jr. trade grades for Cowboys and Steelers after CB gets dealt for future draft picks
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Cowboys could face a franchise-tag dilemma between George Pickens, Joey Porter Jr.
- Oct 1 · ProFootballTalk – Cowboys could face a franchise-tag dilemma between George Pickens, Joey Porter Jr.
- Oct 1 · CBS NFL – Joey Porter Jr. reportedly has 'a chance' to suit up for Cowboys this week vs. Texans
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Report: No new contract for Joey Porter Jr. in Dallas (at least for now)
- Oct 1 · ProFootballTalk – Report: No new contract for Joey Porter Jr. in Dallas (at least for now)
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Cowboys steal lockdown boundary corner
MIA @ SF Sun 4:25 PM
model 78% home → analyst 78% (-0.1 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 69.0°F, wind 6.0 mph, Mostly Cloudy
· final 13–35
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Source | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report TE tore MCL in Week 1, out for season | SF | Jake Tonges | 0.95 | -1.9 | api | hurt +0.009 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Safety out for a few weeks with MCL sprain | MIA | Kyle Louis | 0.90 | +1.8 | api | helped -0.007 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') TE tore MCL in Week 1, final play of season | SF | Jake Tonges | 0.95 | -1.9 | api | hurt +0.009 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report WR placed on injured reserve, out at least 4 games (ankle injury) | SF | De'Zhaun Stribling | 0.95 | -1.9 | api | hurt +0.009 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') WR to miss at least a month with ankle injury suffered in Week 1 vs. Rams | SF | De'Zhaun Stribling | 0.95 | -1.9 | api | hurt +0.009 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Kicker questionable with illness; team signing backup kicker to practice squad as insurance | SF | Eddy Piñeiro | 0.65 | -1.3 | api | hurt +0.006 |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) declined: confidence 0.75 below floor for other Kicker questionable with illness; team signing backup kicker to practice squad as insurance | SF | Eddy Piñeiro | 0.75 | -0.4 | api | hurt +0.002 |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) declined: confidence 0.75 below floor for other Kicker dealing with illness, 49ers may need temporary replacement | SF | Eddy Pineiro | 0.75 | -0.4 | api | hurt +0.002 |
12 news items considered
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Christian McCaffrey has chance to surpass Hall of Famer on Sunday
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Broncos vs. 49ers: 3 Things to Watch in Week 4
- Oct 1 · CBS NFL – Brian Flores' diabolical blitz rates -- equaling nearly 100 tons of pressure -- fueling Vikings' 2026 rampage
- Oct 1 · CBS NFL – NFL Week 4 upset alert: Why these five pick could easily lose, including the 49ers
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Broncos defense bracing for tough matchup versus versatile 49ers offense
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Golden Nuggets: Welcome to Brocktober
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Christian McCaffrey resting Wednesday
- Sep 30 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Kyle Shanahan insists ‘there was no relationship issue’ with Dante Pettis after 49ers reunion
- Sep 30 · ProFootballTalk – Dre Greenlaw, Trent Williams, Mike Evans won't practice Wednesday
- Sep 30 · ProFootballTalk – George Kittle on Mike Evans' injury: Fractured ribs suck
- Sep 30 · Yahoo Sports NFL – NFL Insiders share the price tag for the 49ers to trade for Mac Jones
- Sep 30 · Yahoo Sports NFL – How a motivated Deebo Samuel has quickly made an impact with the 49ers
IND @ KC Sun 8:20 PM
model 67% home → analyst 66% (-1.5 pts)
· forecast at kickoff: 73.0°F, wind 7.0 mph, Mostly Cloudy
· final 30–33
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Source | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report Chiefs defensive starter ruled out for at least four games after Wednesday roster moves | KC | 0.75 | -1.5 | api | hurt +0.010 | |
| suspension declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') WR faces minimum three-game suspension after arrest; blood-alcohol level nearly three times legal limit | IND | Keenan Allen | 0.95 | +1.9 | api | helped -0.012 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Ruled out for Sunday night's matchup with the Chiefs | IND | Ashton Dulin | 0.95 | +1.9 | api | helped -0.012 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report LT ruled out vs. Broncos; undrafted rookie Kahlil Benson to start at LT | KC | Josh Simmons | 0.95 | -1.9 | api | hurt +0.013 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Linebacker injured; Chiefs looking for linebackers after injury | KC | Cooper McDonald | 0.75 | -1.5 | api | hurt +0.010 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Formally charged with two misdemeanors (DUI-related) from August arrest; BAC measured at 0.224% | IND | Keenan Allen | 0.75 | +1.5 | api | helped -0.009 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') CB to have MRI on shoulder after Week 1 injury; status unclear for Week 2 | KC | Mansoor Delane | 0.60 | -1.2 | api | hurt +0.008 |
| locker-room or organizational turmoil declined: confidence 0.70 below floor for turmoil Colts coaching staff made error assigning green dot (helmet transmitter) to safety instead of linebacker; switched to LB Akeem Davis-Gaither for Week 2 | IND | 0.70 | +0.7 | api | helped -0.004 | |
| locker-room or organizational turmoil declined: confidence 0.70 below floor for turmoil Formally charged with two misdemeanors related to August DUI arrest | IND | Keenan Allen | 0.70 | +0.7 | api | helped -0.004 |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) declined: confidence 0.75 below floor for other Colts switched defensive play-caller from safety to LB Akeem Davis-Gaither (helmet transmitter) after Week 1 communication breakdown | IND | 0.75 | -0.4 | api | hurt +0.002 | |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) declined: confidence 0.60 below floor for other Chiefs elevated 2 practice squad players for Sunday Night Football game | KC | 0.60 | +0.3 | api | helped -0.002 | |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) declined: confidence 0.60 below floor for other Formally charged with two misdemeanors from August DUI arrest; legal status may affect availability or focus | IND | Keenan Allen | 0.60 | +0.3 | api | helped -0.002 |
12 news items considered
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Patrick Mahomes: Raiders' 3-0 record is for real, expecting a hostile environment Sunday
- Oct 1 · ProFootballTalk – Patrick Mahomes: Raiders' 3-0 record is for real, expecting a hostile environment Sunday
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Patrick Mahomes values ‘bragging rights’ over Maxx Crosby
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Week 4 NFL picks against the market margin, predictions for every game: Raiders ready for their biggest game in Las Vegas vs. Chiefs
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – NFL Week 4 picks: Rams defeat Eagles; Chiefs topple Raiders
- Sep 30 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Commanders vs. Colts Wednesday injury report: Rachaad White only player in London not practicing
- Sep 30 · ProFootballTalk – Ashton Dulin remains sidelined by ankle injury for Wednesday's practice
- Sep 30 · Yahoo Sports NFL – ‘Which’ Wednesday: Is talent or coaching driving the new-look Chiefs offense?
- Sep 30 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Josh Simmons dealing with bulging disc, will not practice on Wednesday
- Sep 30 · ProFootballTalk – Josh Simmons dealing with bulging disc, will not practice on Wednesday
- Sep 30 · Yahoo Sports NFL – The Chiefs are using play action as well as anyone in the NFL
- Sep 30 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Commanders QB Jayden Daniels to practice Wednesday after flying to London with team, still 'a chance' he plays vs. Colts in Week 4
NYG @ LA Mon 8:15 PM
model 70% home → analyst 68% (-2.0 pts)
· final 6–28
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Source | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report CB ruled out (inactive) for Week 2 vs. Rams | NYG | Deonte Banks | 0.95 | +1.9 | api | helped -0.011 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report WR ruled out (inactive) with hip injury for Week 2 vs. Giants | LA | Puka Nacua | 0.95 | -1.9 | api | hurt +0.012 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Cornerback Paulson Adebo placed on IR | NYG | Paulson Adebo | 0.95 | +1.9 | api | helped -0.011 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Ruled out with hamstring injury | LA | Kam Kinchels | 0.95 | -1.9 | api | hurt +0.012 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Defensive end ruled out or unavailable for Rams-Giants game | LA | Myles Garrett | 0.65 | -1.3 | api | hurt +0.008 |
| unusual travel or schedule disruption Rams played in Australia last week; short turnaround for Monday night game | LA | 0.75 | -0.8 | api | hurt +0.005 | |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Rams DL undergoing arthroscopic knee surgery, headed to IR after Week 1 | LA | Myles Garrett | 0.95 | -1.9 | api | hurt +0.012 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Sean McVay says TBD if Aaron Donald plays vs. Giants in Week 2; did not travel to Australia for Week 1 | LA | Aaron Donald | 0.65 | -1.3 | api | hurt +0.008 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out Returning from retirement; Sean McVay hopeful he will play Week 2 vs Giants | LA | Aaron Donald | 0.85 | +1.3 | api | helped -0.007 |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) declined: confidence 0.75 below floor for other Status TBD for Week 2 vs Giants; did not travel to Australia for Week 1 | LA | Aaron Donald | 0.75 | -0.4 | api | hurt +0.002 |
12 news items considered
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Matthew Stafford close to becoming the first QB with 150 touchdowns on two teams
- Oct 1 · ProFootballTalk – Matthew Stafford close to becoming the first QB with 150 touchdowns on two teams
- Oct 1 · CBS NFL – Week 4 NFL prices, picks, predictions: Computer model backs Giants and Seahawks
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Charlie Jones chose Giants over chance to return to Cincinnati Bengals
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Report: Brian Burns tore his meniscus in addition to his ACL
- Oct 1 · ProFootballTalk – Report: Brian Burns tore his meniscus in addition to his ACL
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – NFL says DPI call against Rams in Week 3 was unnecessary
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – NFL Week 4 picks: Rams defeat Eagles; Chiefs topple Raiders
- Oct 1 · CBS NFL – NFL Week 4 injuries: Steelers' Joey Porter Jr. ruled out, Rams' Aaron Donald sits out of practice
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – The Rams defense isn’t the problem
- Oct 1 · Yahoo Sports NFL – Five Rams missed practice on Wednesday
- Oct 1 · ProFootballTalk – Five Rams missed practice on Wednesday