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Write-ups

Before each week: the picks and the reasons. After: what happened and what we learned. Written by our system from the data, labeled as such. · predictions are published to show the model works. nothing here is betting advice.Last updated: predictions Oct 1, 11:02 AM ET · results graded Sep 28, 11:22 PM ET
Sep 29 · Week 4 · preview

Week 4 picks: 16 games, 3 where we differ from the market

Every Week 4 pick with the reason, the games where we disagree with the market's final price, and what the news layer changed.

Sep 22 · Week 3 · preview

Week 3 picks: 16 games, 2 where we differ from the market

Every Week 3 pick with the reason, the games where we disagree with the market's final price, and what the news layer changed.

Sep 29 · Week 3 · review

Week 3 in review: 10–6, 62% straight-up

What the model got right and wrong in Week 3, where we differed from the market, and what the news layer did.

Sep 15 · Week 2 · preview

Week 2 picks: 16 games, 2 where we differ from the market

Every Week 2 pick with the reason, the games where we disagree with the market's final price, and what the news layer changed.

Sep 22 · Week 2 · review

Week 2 in review: 10–6, 62% straight-up

What the model got right and wrong in Week 2, where we differed from the market, and what the news layer did.

Sep 15 · Week 1 · review

Week 1 in review: 9–5, 64% straight-up

What the model got right and wrong in Week 1, where we differed from the market, and what the news layer did.