Sign in
NFL
Write-ups
Write-upsPlayersBacktestHow this works

Week 4 preview

Sep 29 · predictions are published to show the model works. nothing here is betting advice.Last updated: predictions Oct 1, 11:02 AM ET · results graded Sep 28, 11:22 PM ET
Written by our system from the week's data, with the same language model that reads the news; no human edited it. Every number comes from the Record and Week 4 pages. If a sentence reads wrong, tell us.

16 games this week. The numbers below are current as of this write-up; they update until each kickoff, and the (/sports/nfl/) page always has the current version.

Where we differ from the market

Three games stand out where our model leans against the betting price.

Pittsburgh at Cleveland: we have the Browns at 56%, but the market favors Pittsburgh at minus-2.5. Cleveland's home field is worth 8 points; Pittsburgh is the better team by 6. The gap is narrow.

Arizona at New York Giants: we have the Giants at 60%, but the market favors Arizona at minus-1.5. New York's home advantage is 8 points, and the Giants are in better form by 6. Arizona has the quarterback edge, worth 5 points against them.

Jacksonville at Cincinnati: we have Jacksonville at 50%, but the market favors Cincinnati at minus-2.5. Cincinnati's home field is worth 8 points against Jacksonville. But Jacksonville is the better team by 7 and in better form by 6.

History says the market wins these matchups about 56 to 44, so these games test the model rather than confirm it.

The confident ones

Baltimore over Tennessee stands out at 83%: the Ravens are the better team by 10, have the quarterback edge by 8, and play at home for 4 points.

Minnesota over Miami at 79%: the Vikings are the better team by 11, in better form by 7, and at home for 5.

Chicago over New York Jets at 74%: the Bears are the better team by 10, in better form by 7, and at home for 6.

Seattle over Los Angeles Chargers at 74%: the Seahawks are the better team by 14, in better form by 7, and at home for 6.

Buffalo over New England at 73%: the Bills are at home for 6, have the quarterback edge by 6, and are the better team by 5.

The coin flips

Five games land near 50-50. Green Bay at Tampa Bay is exactly 50%: Green Bay is at home for 8 and has the more efficient offense by 4, but Tampa Bay has the quarterback edge by 8. Jacksonville at Cincinnati is also 50%, and Atlanta at New Orleans is 50%. Pittsburgh at Cleveland is 56% for Cleveland. Los Angeles at Philadelphia is 51% for Los Angeles.

Injuries and roster moves

Injuries shifted several games. Pittsburgh's news moved Cleveland up 3.8 points. Chicago's quarterback injury moved the Bears down 2.4 points. Tennessee's center injury moved Baltimore down 3.4 points. Miami's torn ACL moved Minnesota down 1.9 points. Dallas's short week and safety injury moved Houston up 3 points. Tampa Bay's defensive and receiver injuries moved Green Bay up 3.7 points. Los Angeles's cornerback injury moved the Chargers down 3.6 points. Detroit's cornerback news moved the Lions up 1.9 points. Kansas City's receiver news moved them up 1.9 points.

Every pick

Thu 8:15 PM: PIT @ CLE, CLE 56%, projected 20–22. Sun 9:30 AM: IND @ WAS, IND 60%, projected 24–22. Sun 1:00 PM: ARI @ NYG, NYG 60%, projected 21–24. Sun 1:00 PM: DAL @ HOU, HOU 62%, projected 23–26. Sun 1:00 PM: GB @ TB, GB 50%, projected 24–23. Sun 1:00 PM: JAX @ CIN, JAX 50%, projected 25–24. Sun 1:00 PM: LA @ PHI, LA 51%, projected 24–24. Sun 1:00 PM: NE @ BUF, BUF 73%, projected 20–29. Sun 1:00 PM: NYJ @ CHI, CHI 74%, projected 19–27. Sun 1:00 PM: TEN @ BAL, BAL 83%, projected 16–29. Sun 4:05 PM: MIA @ MIN, MIN 79%, projected 16–28. Sun 4:25 PM: DEN @ SF, SF 63%, projected 22–27. Sun 4:25 PM: KC @ LV, KC 64%, projected 26–21. Sun 4:25 PM: LAC @ SEA, SEA 74%, projected 17–25. Sun 8:20 PM: DET @ CAR, DET 64%, projected 27–23. Mon 8:15 PM: ATL @ NO, NO 50%, projected 23–24.

Predictions are published to show the model works. Nothing here is betting advice.

← All write-ups