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2026 · Week 4
0–0
Week 4 record
16
not yet final
Week 4 picks
0 of 0 correct · 16 not yet final
Kickoff (ET)
Matchup
Win probability
Pick
Projected
Market pick
Why this pick
Thu 8:15 PM
PIT @ CLE
Steelers at BrownsAaron Rodgers vs Deshaun Watson
56%
CLE
20–22
CLE −1.6 · O/U 42.4
PIT −2.5 we differ
CLE at home (+8); PIT is the better team (-6)
Sun 9:30 AM
IND @ WAS
Colts at CommandersDaniel Jones vs Jayden Daniels
60%
IND
24–22
IND −3.0 · O/U 46.0
IND −3.5 same
IND has the QB edge (+5); IND has the more efficient offense (+3); WAS missing 1 starter (+1)
Sun 1:00 PM
ARI @ NYG
Cardinals at GiantsJacoby Brissett vs Jameis Winston
60%
NYG
21–24
NYG −2.9 · O/U 45.0
ARI −2.5 we differ
NYG at home (+8); NYG in better form (+6); ARI has the QB edge (-5)
Sun 1:00 PM
DAL @ HOU
Cowboys at TexansDak Prescott vs C.J. Stroud
62%
HOU
23–26
HOU −2.9 · O/U 49.0
HOU −3 same
HOU is the better team (+10); DAL has the QB edge (-9); HOU at home (+8)
Sun 1:00 PM
GB @ TB
Packers at BuccaneersJordan Love vs Jalon Daniels
58%
GB
24–23
GB −1.5 · O/U 46.9
GB −3.5 same
GB has the QB edge (+16); TB at home (-8); TB has the more efficient offense (-4)
Sun 1:00 PM
JAX @ CIN
Jaguars at BengalsTrevor Lawrence vs Joe Burrow
52%
JAX
25–24
JAX −1.1 · O/U 48.6
CIN −2.5 we differ
CIN at home (-8); JAX is the better team (+7); JAX in better form (+6)
Sun 1:00 PM
LA @ PHI
Rams at EaglesMatthew Stafford vs Jalen Hurts
51%
LA
24–24
LA −0.5 · O/U 48.1
LA −3 same
PHI at home (-8); LA is the better team (+7); LA has the QB edge (+6)
Sun 1:00 PM
NE @ BUF
Patriots at BillsDrake Maye vs Josh Allen
76%
BUF
20–29
BUF −9.3 · O/U 49.1
BUF −6.5 same
BUF at home (+6); BUF has the QB edge (+6); BUF is the better team (+5)
Sun 1:00 PM
NYJ @ CHI
Jets at BearsGeno Smith vs Case Keenum
74%
CHI
19–27
CHI −8.1 · O/U 46.0
CHI −3.5 same
CHI is the better team (+10); CHI in better form (+7); CHI at home (+6)
Sun 1:00 PM
TEN @ BAL
Titans at RavensCam Ward vs Lamar Jackson
86%
BAL
16–30
BAL −14.2 · O/U 45.3
BAL −11.5 same
BAL is the better team (+10); BAL has the QB edge (+8); BAL at home (+4)
Sun 4:05 PM
MIA @ MIN
Dolphins at VikingsMalik Willis vs Kyler Murray
80%
MIN
16–28
MIN −11.8 · O/U 43.8
MIN −10.5 same
MIN is the better team (+11); MIN in better form (+7); MIN at home (+5)
Sun 4:25 PM
DEN @ SF
Broncos at 49ersBo Nix vs Brock Purdy
63%
SF
22–27
SF −4.7 · O/U 48.8
SF −3 same
SF has the QB edge (+9); SF at home (+7); DEN has the more efficient offense (-4)
Sun 4:25 PM
KC @ LV
Chiefs at RaidersPatrick Mahomes vs Kirk Cousins
64%
KC
26–21
KC −4.7 · O/U 47.0
KC −4.5 same
KC is the better team (+12); LV at home (-7); KC has the QB edge (+5)
Sun 4:25 PM
LAC @ SEA
Chargers at SeahawksJustin Herbert vs Drew Lock
74%
SEA
17–25
SEA −8.6 · O/U 42.1
SEA −7 same
SEA is the better team (+14); SEA in better form (+7); SEA at home (+6)
Sun 8:20 PM
DET @ CAR
Lions at PanthersJared Goff vs Bryce Young
66%
DET
27–22
DET −4.4 · O/U 49.5
DET −3.5 same
DET has the QB edge (+12); DET is the better team (+11); CAR at home (-7)
Mon 8:15 PM
ATL @ NO
Falcons at SaintsMichael Penix Jr. vs Tyler Shough
50%
NO
23–24
NO −0.5 · O/U 47.3
NO −2.5 same
NO at home (+8); ATL is the better team (-3); ATL has the more efficient offense (-2)
What moved
Every run re-predicts the week and the last one before kickoff is the pick of record. This lists any game whose probability moved a point or more between pre-kickoff runs, or whose pick flipped, and names the biggest reason. Runs after kickoff never count and are not shown. 38 runs so far this week · latest Thu 11:02 AM ET.
| Run | Game | Pick | Before | After | Move | Biggest reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 11:02 AM ET | NE @ BUF | BUF | 75% BUF | 76% BUF | +1.0 toward BUF | analyst adjustment +1.1 |
| Thu 11:02 AM ET | GB @ TB | GB | 38% TB | 42% TB | +3.7 toward TB | analyst adjustment +3.9 |
| Thu 7:04 AM ET | GB @ TB | GB | 42% TB | 38% TB | -3.7 toward GB | analyst adjustment -3.9 |
| Wed 7:03 PM ET | GB @ TB | GB | 43% TB | 42% TB | -1.8 toward GB | analyst adjustment -1.8 |
| Wed 3:01 PM ET | GB @ TB | GB | 42% TB | 43% TB | +1.9 toward TB | analyst adjustment +1.9 |
| Wed 3:01 PM ET | IND @ WAS | IND | 41% WAS | 39% WAS | -2.1 toward IND | analyst adjustment -2.1 |
| Wed 11:02 AM ET | DET @ CAR | DET | 36% CAR | 34% CAR | -1.8 toward DET | analyst adjustment -1.8 |
| Wed 11:02 AM ET | GB @ TB | GB | 45% TB | 42% TB | -3.7 toward GB | analyst adjustment -3.7 |
| Wed 7:02 AM ET | GB @ TB | GB | 42% TB | 45% TB | +3.6 toward TB | analyst adjustment +3.7 |
| Tue 7:01 PM ET | NE @ BUF | BUF | 73% BUF | 75% BUF | +1.8 toward BUF | analyst adjustment +1.9 |
| Tue 7:01 PM ET | JAX @ CIN | JAX | 50% CIN | 48% CIN | -1.9 toward JAX | analyst adjustment -1.9 |
| Tue 7:01 PM ET | TEN @ BAL | BAL | 83% BAL | 87% BAL | +4.0 toward BAL | analyst adjustment +3.6 |
| Tue 7:01 PM ET | GB @ TB | GB | 50% TB | 42% TB | -7.9 toward GB | Quarterback -23.5 |
| Tue 7:03 AM ET | JAX @ CIN | CIN → JAX | 50% CIN | 50% CIN | -0.0 toward JAX | retrain / updated inputs |
| Tue 7:03 AM ET | GB @ TB | TB → GB | 51% TB | 50% TB | -1.7 toward GB | analyst adjustment -1.8 |
| Tue 7:03 AM ET | NYJ @ CHI | CHI | 67% CHI | 74% CHI | +7.3 toward CHI | Quarterback +8.0 |
| Tue 12:02 AM ET | NE @ BUF | BUF | 72% BUF | 73% BUF | +1.1 toward BUF | analyst adjustment +1.1 |
| Tue 12:02 AM ET | LA @ PHI | PHI → LA | 51% PHI | 48% PHI | -2.8 toward LA | analyst adjustment +1.3 |
| Tue 12:02 AM ET | NYJ @ CHI | CHI | 64% CHI | 67% CHI | +3.4 toward CHI | Recent form +1.4 |
| Mon 7:02 PM ET | GB @ TB | GB → TB | 49% TB | 51% TB | +1.9 toward TB | analyst adjustment +1.9 |
| Mon 7:02 PM ET | TEN @ BAL | BAL | 87% BAL | 83% BAL | -3.8 toward TEN | analyst adjustment -3.4 |
| Mon 7:02 PM ET | ARI @ NYG | NYG | 56% NYG | 60% NYG | +4.5 toward NYG | analyst adjustment +4.4 |
| Mon 3:03 PM ET | DAL @ HOU | HOU | 60% HOU | 61% HOU | +1.7 toward HOU | analyst adjustment +1.7 |
| Mon 3:03 PM ET | DET @ CAR | DET | 38% CAR | 36% CAR | -1.9 toward DET | analyst adjustment -1.9 |