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2026 · Week 3
10–6
Week 3 record · 62%
9–7
Market pick, same games
9.2
avg. margin error (pts)
BUF 85%
best call (highest-confidence hit)
SEA 80%
toughest miss (most confident)
Week 3 picks
10 of 16 correct · Market pick 9 of 16
Kickoff (ET)
Matchup
Win probability
Pick
Projected
Market pick
Why this pick
Thu 8:15 PM
ATL @ GB
Falcons at PackersMichael Penix Jr. vs Jordan Love
Final ATL 35 – GB 14✕
76%
GB
20–27
GB −6.8 · O/U 47.1
GB −4.5 same
GB has the QB edge (+9); GB is the better team (+6); GB at home (+6)
Sun 1:00 PM
CAR @ CLE
Panthers at BrownsBryce Young vs Deshaun Watson
Final CAR 18 – CLE 21✓
57%
CLE
20–23
CLE −2.0 · O/U 43.1
CAR −2.5 we differ
CLE at home (+8); CAR in better form (-3); CLE has the more efficient offense (+3)
Sun 1:00 PM
CIN @ PIT
Bengals at SteelersJoe Burrow vs Aaron Rodgers
Final CIN 27 – PIT 30✕
62%
CIN
25–21
CIN −3.8 · O/U 46.3
CIN −3.5 same
CIN has the QB edge (+8); PIT at home (-8); CIN in better form (+6)
Sun 1:00 PM
HOU @ IND
Texans at ColtsC.J. Stroud vs Daniel Jones
Final HOU 17 – IND 19✕
52%
HOU
23–22
HOU −0.9 · O/U 44.7
HOU −1.5 same
HOU is the better team (+10); IND at home (-8); HOU in better form (+4)
Sun 1:00 PM
KC @ MIA
Chiefs at DolphinsPatrick Mahomes vs Malik Willis
Final KC 24 – MIA 10✓
60%
KC
26–22
KC −4.5 · O/U 48.1
KC −10 same
KC is the better team (+11); KC in better form (+8); MIA at home (-8)
Sun 1:00 PM
LAC @ BUF
Chargers at BillsJustin Herbert vs Josh Allen
Final LAC 16 – BUF 24✓
85%
BUF
18–31
BUF −13.5 · O/U 48.6
BUF −7 same
BUF is the better team (+9); BUF has the QB edge (+6); BUF at home (+5)
Sun 1:00 PM
NE @ JAX
Patriots at JaguarsDrake Maye vs Trevor Lawrence
Final NE 6 – JAX 35✓
62%
JAX
21–25
JAX −3.9 · O/U 45.8
JAX −3 same
JAX at home (+8); NE is the better team (-2); JAX in better form (+2)
Sun 1:00 PM
NYJ @ DET
Jets at LionsGeno Smith vs Jared Goff
Final NYJ 24 – DET 31✓
84%
DET
19–31
DET −11.5 · O/U 49.7
DET −7 same
DET is the better team (+9); DET has the QB edge (+8); DET at home (+5)
Sun 1:00 PM
SEA @ WAS
Seahawks at CommandersDrew Lock vs Jayden Daniels
Final SEA 31 – WAS 33✕
80%
SEA
27–18
SEA −9.0 · O/U 45.5
SEA −8.5 same
SEA is the better team (+16); SEA in better form (+10); WAS at home (-6)
Sun 1:00 PM
TEN @ NYG
Titans at GiantsCam Ward vs Jameis Winston
Final TEN 7 – NYG 12✓
59%
NYG
20–23
NYG −2.8 · O/U 42.9
NYG −2.5 same
NYG at home (+7); NYG is the better team (+6); NYG in better form (+4)
Sun 4:05 PM
ARI @ SF
Cardinals at 49ersJacoby Brissett vs Brock Purdy
Final ARI 30 – SF 36✓
79%
SF
19–29
SF −10.9 · O/U 48.0
SF −7.5 same
SF is the better team (+8); SF has the QB edge (+7); SF in better form (+6)
Sun 4:05 PM
MIN @ TB
Vikings at BuccaneersKyler Murray vs Baker Mayfield
Final MIN 23 – TB 16✓
54%
MIN
23–21
MIN −1.8 · O/U 43.5
MIN −1.5 same
MIN is the better team (+10); TB at home (-8); MIN in better form (+6)
Sun 4:25 PM
BAL @ DAL
Ravens at CowboysLamar Jackson vs Dak Prescott
Final BAL 34 – DAL 31✓
64%
BAL
28–23
BAL −4.6 · O/U 51.2
BAL −3 same
BAL is the better team (+9); BAL in better form (+3); DAL missing 3 starters (+2)
Sun 4:25 PM
LV @ NO
Raiders at SaintsKirk Cousins vs Tyler Shough
Final LV 35 – NO 27✕
63%
NO
20–24
NO −4.0 · O/U 44.9
NO −3.5 same
NO at home (+7); NO is the better team (+5); NO in better form (+2)
Sun 8:20 PM
LA @ DEN
Rams at BroncosMatthew Stafford vs Bo Nix
Final LA 26 – DEN 30✓
51%
DEN
24–24
DEN −0.5 · O/U 48.0
DEN −1.5 same
DEN at home (+8); LA has the QB edge (-7); LA missing 2 starters (+3)
Mon 8:15 PM
PHI @ CHI
Eagles at BearsJalen Hurts vs Case Keenum
Final PHI 7 – CHI 27✕
66%
PHI
25–21
PHI −3.9 · O/U 46.0
PHI −3.5 same
PHI has the QB edge (+14); CHI at home (-8); PHI is the better team (+3)
Notable in Week 3
What stood out, measured against every game since 2009. Arithmetic on final scores and market's final price, nothing else; a fact makes the list only if it is rare (a team's best or worst in years, a game in the top 1% of all games, or a week in the top or bottom ten of nearly 300).
- Buffalo Bills won despite 5 turnovers; teams that turn it over 5+ times rarely do (it has happened in 179 games since 2009, and those teams lost most of them).
- Minnesota Vikings beat Tampa Bay Buccaneers for the first time since Week 3, 2017 (2 straight losses in between).
- Denver Broncos beat Los Angeles Rams for the first time in our data (0–4 since 2009 before this).
- Indianapolis Colts beat Houston Texans for the first time since Week 2, 2023 (5 straight losses in between).
- Washington Commanders beat Seattle Seahawks for the first time since Week 12, 2021 (2 straight losses in between).
- Drake London (Atlanta Falcons): 194 receiving yards, a career high in 64 games since 2009 (previous best 187).
- Sam Darnold (Seattle Seahawks): 379 passing yards, a career high in 101 games since 2009 (previous best 377).
- Green Bay Packers: a 21-point loss against Atlanta Falcons, the team's worst loss since Week 1, 2021.
- Philadelphia Eagles: a 20-point loss against Chicago Bears, the team's worst loss since the 2023 playoffs.
- Las Vegas Raiders: 35 points against New Orleans Saints, the team's most points since Week 15, 2023.
What moved
Every run re-predicts the week and the last one before kickoff is the pick of record. This lists any game whose probability moved a point or more between pre-kickoff runs, or whose pick flipped, and names the biggest reason. Runs after kickoff never count and are not shown. 63 runs so far this week · latest Mon 8:01 PM ET.
Nothing moved in the latest run: every pick and probability held. Earlier movement is listed below.
| Run | Game | Pick | Before | After | Move | Biggest reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 8:03 PM ET | LA @ DEN | DEN | 55% DEN | 51% DEN | -3.9 toward LA | analyst adjustment -3.9 |
| Sun 3:02 PM ET | MIN @ TB | MIN | 48% TB | 46% TB | -2.0 toward MIN | analyst adjustment -1.9 |
| Sun 11:47 AM ET | CIN @ PIT | CIN | 40% PIT | 38% PIT | -1.9 toward CIN | analyst adjustment -1.9 |
| Sun 7:03 AM ET | PHI @ CHI | PHI | 32% CHI | 33% CHI | +1.1 toward CHI | Injuries +1.2 |
| Sun 7:03 AM ET | LA @ DEN | DEN | 53% DEN | 55% DEN | +1.9 toward DEN | analyst adjustment +1.9 |
| Sat 7:03 PM ET | PHI @ CHI | PHI | 36% CHI | 32% CHI | -4.0 toward PHI | analyst adjustment -4.0 |
| Sat 7:03 AM ET | NE @ JAX | JAX | 61% JAX | 62% JAX | +1.1 toward JAX | Injuries +1.1 |
| Sat 7:03 AM ET | ARI @ SF | SF | 78% SF | 79% SF | +1.2 toward SF | analyst adjustment +2.2 |
| Sat 7:03 AM ET | LV @ NO | NO | 61% NO | 63% NO | +1.3 toward NO | Injuries +1.3 |
| Sat 7:03 AM ET | HOU @ IND | HOU | 45% IND | 48% IND | +3.1 toward IND | Injuries +3.1 |
| Sat 7:03 AM ET | KC @ MIA | KC | 36% MIA | 40% MIA | +3.3 toward MIA | Injuries +3.3 |
| Sat 7:03 AM ET | MIN @ TB | TB → MIN | 53% TB | 48% TB | -4.5 toward MIN | analyst adjustment -2.2 |
| Sat 7:03 AM ET | LA @ DEN | LA → DEN | 49% DEN | 53% DEN | +4.5 toward DEN | analyst adjustment +1.9 |
| Fri 7:02 PM ET | LV @ NO | NO | 63% NO | 61% NO | -1.2 toward LV | analyst adjustment -1.2 |
| Fri 7:02 PM ET | KC @ MIA | KC | 34% MIA | 36% MIA | +1.9 toward MIA | analyst adjustment +1.9 |
| Fri 7:02 PM ET | CIN @ PIT | CIN | 42% PIT | 40% PIT | -1.9 toward CIN | analyst adjustment -1.9 |
| Fri 7:02 PM ET | LA @ DEN | DEN → LA | 51% DEN | 49% DEN | -1.9 toward LA | analyst adjustment -1.9 |
| Fri 7:02 PM ET | BAL @ DAL | BAL | 34% DAL | 36% DAL | +1.9 toward DAL | analyst adjustment +1.9 |
| Fri 3:03 PM ET | LAC @ BUF | BUF | 84% BUF | 86% BUF | +1.8 toward BUF | analyst adjustment +2.1 |
| Fri 3:03 PM ET | CAR @ CLE | CLE | 56% CLE | 58% CLE | +1.8 toward CLE | analyst adjustment +1.8 |
| Fri 3:03 PM ET | KC @ MIA | KC | 36% MIA | 34% MIA | -1.9 toward KC | analyst adjustment -1.9 |
| Fri 3:03 PM ET | MIN @ TB | TB | 50% TB | 52% TB | +2.2 toward TB | analyst adjustment +2.2 |
| Fri 7:02 AM ET | MIN @ TB | MIN → TB | 50% TB | 50% TB | +0.2 toward TB | Team quality +21.1 |
| Fri 12:01 AM ET | MIN @ TB | TB → MIN | 50% TB | 50% TB | -0.3 toward MIN | Team quality -21.4 |