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Seahawks at Commanders
SEA
the pick · 80% to win (model 71%, analyst +8.2)
27–18
projected · SEA by 9.0 · total 45.5
SEA −8.5
final market margin · agrees
31–33
final · ✕
ATS ✕ · O/U ✓
market margin and total, market's final price · margin error +11.0 · total error +18.5
Why Seattle Seahawks
Each factor's push toward the pick, in percentage points of win probability. Drew Lock vs Marcus Mariota (Jayden Daniels out) at quarterback. Forecast at kickoff: 62.0°F, wind 13.0 mph, Slight Chance Light Rain.
SEA is the better team (+16); SEA in better form (+10); WAS at home (-6)
How the number moved
Every pre-kickoff run, oldest first. The last one is the pick of record.
| Run | WAS win | model | analyst | Pick | Market margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 3:02 PM ET | 37% | 37% | +0.0 | SEA | -2.9 |
| Sat 7:02 PM ET | 37% | 37% | +0.0 | SEA | -2.9 |
| Sun 7:03 AM ET | 37% | 37% | +0.0 | SEA | -2.9 |
| Sun 11:01 AM ET | 37% | 37% | +0.0 | SEA | -2.9 |
| Sun 11:47 AM ET | 37% | 37% | +0.0 | SEA | -2.9 |
| Sun 3:03 PM ET | 37% | 37% | +0.0 | SEA | -2.9 |
| Sun 4:12 PM ET | 39% | 37% | +1.9 | SEA | -2.4 |
| Sun 7:02 PM ET | 37% | 37% | -0.1 | SEA | -2.9 |
| Sun 8:02 PM ET | 32% | 37% | -5.8 | SEA | -4.5 |
| Mon 12:02 AM ET | 24% | 30% | -5.8 | SEA | -7.7 |
| Mon 7:03 AM ET | 24% | 30% | -5.8 | SEA | -7.7 |
| Mon 11:02 AM ET | 24% | 30% | -5.8 | SEA | -7.7 |
| Mon 3:02 PM ET | 24% | 30% | -5.8 | SEA | -7.7 |
| Mon 7:02 PM ET | 24% | 30% | -5.8 | SEA | -7.7 |
| Mon 8:03 PM ET | 24% | 30% | -5.7 | SEA | -7.7 |
| Tue 12:02 AM ET | 24% | 30% | -5.8 | SEA | -7.7 |
| Tue 7:02 AM ET | 24% | 30% | -5.8 | SEA | -7.7 |
| Tue 11:02 AM ET | 24% | 30% | -5.7 | SEA | -7.7 |
| Tue 3:03 PM ET | 24% | 30% | -5.6 | SEA | -7.7 |
| Tue 7:01 PM ET | 24% | 30% | -5.6 | SEA | -7.7 |
| Wed 7:02 AM ET | 24% | 30% | -5.6 | SEA | -7.7 |
| Wed 11:02 AM ET | 24% | 30% | -5.6 | SEA | -7.7 |
| Wed 3:01 PM ET | 21% | 30% | -10.0 | SEA | -8.9 |
| Wed 7:03 PM ET | 21% | 30% | -10.0 | SEA | -8.9 |
| Thu 7:03 AM ET | 21% | 30% | -10.0 | SEA | -8.9 |
| Thu 11:02 AM ET | 21% | 30% | -10.0 | SEA | -8.9 |
| Thu 3:01 PM ET | 21% | 30% | -10.0 | SEA | -8.9 |
| Thu 7:02 PM ET | 21% | 30% | -10.0 | SEA | -8.9 |
| Thu 8:01 PM ET | 21% | 30% | -10.0 | SEA | -8.9 |
| Fri 12:01 AM ET | 21% | 30% | -10.0 | SEA | -8.9 |
| Fri 7:02 AM ET | 21% | 30% | -10.0 | SEA | -8.9 |
| Fri 11:02 AM ET | 21% | 30% | -10.0 | SEA | -8.9 |
| Fri 3:03 PM ET | 21% | 30% | -10.0 | SEA | -8.9 |
| Fri 7:02 PM ET | 21% | 30% | -10.0 | SEA | -8.9 |
| Sat 7:03 AM ET | 20% | 28% | -8.2 | SEA | -9.0 |
| Sat 11:02 AM ET | 20% | 28% | -8.2 | SEA | -9.0 |
| Sat 3:02 PM ET | 20% | 28% | -8.2 | SEA | -9.0 |
| Sat 7:03 PM ET | 20% | 28% | -8.2 | SEA | -9.0 |
| Sun 7:03 AM ET | 20% | 28% | -8.2 | SEA | -9.0 |
| Sun 11:01 AM ET | 20% | 28% | -8.2 | SEA | -9.0 |
| Sun 11:47 AM ET | 20% | 28% | -8.2 | SEA | -9.0 |
What the markets said
Probability the home team (WAS) wins, first snapshot → last before kickoff. Market margin in brackets, home minus away.
| Source | Open | Close | Snapshots |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 45% (-3.5) | 22% (-8.5) | 41 |
| Kalshi | 46% | 22% | 41 |
| DraftKings | 30% (-7.0) | 26% (-8.5) | 21 |
| nflverse price | 45% (-2.5) | 22% (-8.5) | 39 |
| niftiNFL | 37% | 20% (-9.0) | 41 |
What the news layer did
Claims read before kickoff. Bold = applied to the pick; gray = declined and kept as a shadow claim, graded at zero weight. Full analyst page for the week →
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| starting QB change not yet in the feed Jayden Daniels ruled out with dislocated elbow; Marcus Mariota named starter for Week 3 | WAS | Marcus Mariota | 0.98 | -5.9 | hurt +0.082 |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed Jayden Daniels out for at least this week's game vs Seahawks; Marcus Mariota to start | WAS | 0.95 | -5.7 | hurt +0.080 | |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Ruled out of Cardinals game (Week 2) | SEA | Anthony Bradford | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.028 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Key defensive player ruled out for Seahawks (safety injuries continue per injury report) | SEA | 0.75 | +1.5 | helped -0.022 | |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Jayden Daniels dislocated left elbow in Week 2; Mariota to start Week 3 | WAS | Marcus Mariota | 0.95 | -5.7 | hurt +0.080 |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Marcus Mariota expected to start in place of injured Jayden Daniels | WAS | 0.85 | -5.1 | hurt +0.072 | |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Darnold optimistic he'll be starting QB on Sunday; ramping up practice reps this week after injury | SEA | Sam Darnold | 0.75 | +4.5 | helped -0.066 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Jayden Daniels out for at least this week's game against Seahawks with elbow injury | WAS | Jayden Daniels | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.027 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') DB Nick Cross suffered internal injury in Week 2, remained in Dallas | WAS | Nick Cross | 0.75 | -1.5 | hurt +0.022 |
Quick answers
Who won Seattle Seahawks at Washington Commanders?
The Washington Commanders beat the Seattle Seahawks 33-31 in Week 3 of the 2026 NFL season.
Who does niftiNFL pick to win Seattle Seahawks at Washington Commanders?
niftiNFL picks the Seattle Seahawks, 80% to win, with a projected score of Seattle Seahawks 27, Washington Commanders 18. The pick is stored before kickoff and never changed.
Was the niftiNFL pick right?
No. The pick was the Seattle Seahawks; the final was Seattle Seahawks 31, Washington Commanders 33.