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Jets at Lions
DET
the pick · 84% to win (model 80%, analyst +3.8)
19–31
projected · DET by 11.5 · total 49.7
DET −7
final market margin · agrees
24–31
final · ✓
ATS – · O/U ✓
market margin and total, market's final price · margin error -4.5 · total error +5.3
Why Detroit Lions
Each factor's push toward the pick, in percentage points of win probability. Geno Smith vs Jared Goff at quarterback.
DET is the better team (+9); DET has the QB edge (+8); DET at home (+5)
How the number moved
Every pre-kickoff run, oldest first. The last one is the pick of record.
| Run | DET win | model | analyst | Pick | Market margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 3:02 PM ET | 84% | 81% | +3.8 | DET | +11.0 |
| Sat 7:02 PM ET | 84% | 81% | +3.8 | DET | +11.0 |
| Sun 7:03 AM ET | 84% | 81% | +3.8 | DET | +11.0 |
| Sun 11:01 AM ET | 84% | 81% | +3.8 | DET | +11.0 |
| Sun 11:47 AM ET | 84% | 81% | +3.8 | DET | +11.0 |
| Sun 3:03 PM ET | 84% | 81% | +3.8 | DET | +11.0 |
| Sun 4:12 PM ET | 84% | 81% | +4.0 | DET | +11.0 |
| Sun 7:02 PM ET | 84% | 81% | +4.0 | DET | +11.0 |
| Sun 8:02 PM ET | 84% | 81% | +4.0 | DET | +11.0 |
| Mon 12:02 AM ET | 83% | 80% | +4.0 | DET | +11.1 |
| Mon 7:03 AM ET | 83% | 80% | +4.0 | DET | +11.1 |
| Mon 11:02 AM ET | 83% | 80% | +4.0 | DET | +11.1 |
| Mon 3:02 PM ET | 83% | 80% | +3.8 | DET | +11.1 |
| Mon 7:02 PM ET | 83% | 80% | +3.8 | DET | +11.1 |
| Mon 8:03 PM ET | 83% | 80% | +3.8 | DET | +11.1 |
| Tue 12:02 AM ET | 83% | 80% | +3.8 | DET | +11.2 |
| Tue 7:02 AM ET | 83% | 80% | +3.8 | DET | +11.2 |
| Tue 11:02 AM ET | 83% | 80% | +3.8 | DET | +11.2 |
| Tue 3:03 PM ET | 83% | 80% | +3.8 | DET | +11.2 |
| Tue 7:01 PM ET | 83% | 80% | +3.8 | DET | +11.2 |
| Wed 7:02 AM ET | 83% | 80% | +3.8 | DET | +11.2 |
| Wed 11:02 AM ET | 83% | 80% | +3.8 | DET | +11.2 |
| Wed 3:01 PM ET | 84% | 80% | +4.0 | DET | +11.2 |
| Wed 7:03 PM ET | 84% | 80% | +4.0 | DET | +11.2 |
| Thu 7:03 AM ET | 84% | 80% | +4.0 | DET | +11.2 |
| Thu 11:02 AM ET | 84% | 80% | +4.0 | DET | +11.2 |
| Thu 3:01 PM ET | 84% | 80% | +4.0 | DET | +11.2 |
| Thu 7:02 PM ET | 84% | 80% | +4.0 | DET | +11.2 |
| Thu 8:01 PM ET | 84% | 80% | +4.0 | DET | +11.2 |
| Fri 12:01 AM ET | 84% | 80% | +4.0 | DET | +11.2 |
| Fri 7:02 AM ET | 84% | 80% | +4.0 | DET | +11.2 |
| Fri 11:02 AM ET | 84% | 80% | +4.0 | DET | +11.2 |
| Fri 3:03 PM ET | 84% | 80% | +4.0 | DET | +11.2 |
| Fri 7:02 PM ET | 84% | 80% | +4.0 | DET | +11.2 |
| Sat 7:03 AM ET | 84% | 81% | +3.8 | DET | +11.5 |
| Sat 11:02 AM ET | 84% | 81% | +3.8 | DET | +11.5 |
| Sat 3:02 PM ET | 84% | 81% | +3.8 | DET | +11.5 |
| Sat 7:03 PM ET | 84% | 81% | +3.8 | DET | +11.5 |
| Sun 7:03 AM ET | 84% | 81% | +3.8 | DET | +11.5 |
| Sun 11:01 AM ET | 84% | 81% | +3.8 | DET | +11.5 |
| Sun 11:47 AM ET | 84% | 81% | +3.8 | DET | +11.5 |
What the markets said
Probability the home team (DET) wins, first snapshot → last before kickoff. Market margin in brackets, home minus away.
| Source | Open | Close | Snapshots |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 74% (+6.5) | 74% (+6.5) | 41 |
| Kalshi | 76% | 72% | 41 |
| DraftKings | 69% (+6.5) | 69% (+6.5) | 21 |
| nflverse price | 76% (+7.5) | 73% (+6.5) | 39 |
| niftiNFL | 84% | 84% (+11.5) | 41 |
What the news layer did
Claims read before kickoff. Bold = applied to the pick; gray = declined and kept as a shadow claim, graded at zero weight. Full analyst page for the week →
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report WR underwent season-ending surgery | NYJ | Arian Smith | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.007 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report DL placed on injured reserve this week after core muscle surgery; expected back this season | NYJ | David Onyemata | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.007 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Placed on injured reserve | DET | Avonte Maddox | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.008 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Rookie WR placed on injured reserve, will miss at least four games with ankle injury from Week 1 | NYJ | Omar Cooper Jr. | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.007 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Safety ruled out for Week 2 vs. Packers | NYJ | Minkah Fitzpatrick | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.007 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Safety will not return to practice this week | DET | Kerby Joseph | 0.85 | -1.7 | hurt +0.007 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Safety will not return to practice this week | DET | Brian Branch | 0.85 | -1.7 | hurt +0.007 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') TE week-to-week with thumb injury; status uncertain for Week 3 | NYJ | Mason Taylor | 0.65 | +1.3 | helped -0.005 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: confidence 0.45 below floor for key_player_out WR added to injury report as limited participant; status uncertain for Week 3 | NYJ | Adonai Mitchell | 0.45 | +0.9 | helped -0.003 |
Quick answers
Who won New York Jets at Detroit Lions?
The Detroit Lions beat the New York Jets 31-24 in Week 3 of the 2026 NFL season.
Who does niftiNFL pick to win New York Jets at Detroit Lions?
niftiNFL picks the Detroit Lions, 84% to win, with a projected score of New York Jets 19, Detroit Lions 31. The pick is stored before kickoff and never changed.
Was the niftiNFL pick right?
Yes. The pick was the Detroit Lions; the final was New York Jets 24, Detroit Lions 31.