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Texans at Colts
HOU
the pick · 52% to win (model 51%, analyst +1.5)
23–22
projected · HOU by 0.9 · total 44.7
HOU −1.5
final market margin · agrees
17–19
final · ✕
ATS ✓ · O/U ✕
market margin and total, market's final price · margin error +2.9 · total error -8.7
Why Houston Texans
Each factor's push toward the pick, in percentage points of win probability. C.J. Stroud vs Daniel Jones at quarterback. Forecast at kickoff: 66.0°F, wind 5.0 mph, Sunny.
HOU is the better team (+10); IND at home (-8); HOU in better form (+4)
How the number moved
Every pre-kickoff run, oldest first. The last one is the pick of record.
| Run | IND win | model | analyst | Pick | Market margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 3:02 PM ET | 40% | 40% | +0.0 | HOU | -2.1 |
| Sat 7:02 PM ET | 40% | 40% | +0.0 | HOU | -2.1 |
| Sun 7:03 AM ET | 40% | 40% | +0.0 | HOU | -2.1 |
| Sun 11:01 AM ET | 40% | 40% | +0.0 | HOU | -2.1 |
| Sun 11:47 AM ET | 40% | 40% | +0.0 | HOU | -2.1 |
| Sun 3:03 PM ET | 42% | 40% | +1.9 | HOU | -1.6 |
| Sun 4:12 PM ET | 42% | 40% | +1.9 | HOU | -1.6 |
| Sun 7:02 PM ET | 42% | 40% | +1.9 | HOU | -1.6 |
| Sun 8:02 PM ET | 42% | 40% | +1.9 | HOU | -1.6 |
| Mon 12:02 AM ET | 46% | 46% | +0.0 | HOU | -0.5 |
| Mon 7:03 AM ET | 46% | 46% | +0.0 | HOU | -0.5 |
| Mon 11:02 AM ET | 46% | 46% | +0.0 | HOU | -0.5 |
| Mon 3:02 PM ET | 46% | 46% | +0.0 | HOU | -0.5 |
| Mon 7:02 PM ET | 46% | 46% | +0.0 | HOU | -0.5 |
| Mon 8:03 PM ET | 46% | 46% | +0.0 | HOU | -0.5 |
| Tue 12:02 AM ET | 46% | 46% | +0.0 | HOU | -0.5 |
| Tue 7:02 AM ET | 46% | 46% | +0.0 | HOU | -0.5 |
| Tue 11:02 AM ET | 46% | 46% | +0.4 | HOU | -0.5 |
| Tue 3:03 PM ET | 46% | 46% | +0.4 | HOU | -0.5 |
| Tue 7:01 PM ET | 46% | 46% | +0.4 | HOU | -0.5 |
| Wed 7:02 AM ET | 46% | 46% | +0.4 | HOU | -0.5 |
| Wed 11:02 AM ET | 46% | 46% | +0.4 | HOU | -0.5 |
| Wed 3:01 PM ET | 44% | 46% | -1.6 | HOU | -0.9 |
| Wed 7:03 PM ET | 44% | 46% | -1.5 | HOU | -0.9 |
| Thu 7:03 AM ET | 44% | 46% | -1.5 | HOU | -0.9 |
| Thu 11:02 AM ET | 44% | 46% | -1.5 | HOU | -0.9 |
| Thu 3:01 PM ET | 44% | 46% | -1.5 | HOU | -0.9 |
| Thu 7:02 PM ET | 44% | 46% | -1.5 | HOU | -0.9 |
| Thu 8:01 PM ET | 44% | 46% | -1.5 | HOU | -0.9 |
| Fri 12:01 AM ET | 45% | 46% | -1.5 | HOU | -0.9 |
| Fri 7:02 AM ET | 45% | 46% | -1.5 | HOU | -0.9 |
| Fri 11:02 AM ET | 45% | 46% | -1.5 | HOU | -0.9 |
| Fri 3:03 PM ET | 45% | 46% | -1.5 | HOU | -0.9 |
| Fri 7:02 PM ET | 45% | 46% | -1.5 | HOU | -0.9 |
| Sat 7:03 AM ET | 48% | 49% | -1.5 | HOU | -0.9 |
| Sat 11:02 AM ET | 48% | 49% | -1.5 | HOU | -0.9 |
| Sat 3:02 PM ET | 48% | 49% | -1.5 | HOU | -0.9 |
| Sat 7:03 PM ET | 48% | 49% | -1.5 | HOU | -0.9 |
| Sun 7:03 AM ET | 48% | 49% | -1.5 | HOU | -0.9 |
| Sun 11:01 AM ET | 48% | 49% | -1.5 | HOU | -0.9 |
| Sun 11:47 AM ET | 48% | 49% | -1.5 | HOU | -0.9 |
What the markets said
Probability the home team (IND) wins, first snapshot → last before kickoff. Market margin in brackets, home minus away.
| Source | Open | Close | Snapshots |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 36% (-0.5) | 46% (-1.5) | 41 |
| Kalshi | 42% | 46% | 41 |
| DraftKings | 41% (-3.0) | 46% (-1.5) | 21 |
| nflverse price | 45% (-2.5) | 47% (-1.5) | 38 |
| niftiNFL | 40% | 48% (-0.9) | 41 |
What the news layer did
Claims read before kickoff. Bold = applied to the pick; gray = declined and kept as a shadow claim, graded at zero weight. Full analyst page for the week →
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report Placed on IR to make roster room for Darius Slayton signing | IND | Micheal Clemons | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.020 |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) WR signed to reunite with QB Daniel Jones, replacing Pierce | IND | Darius Slayton | 0.80 | +0.4 | helped -0.004 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Placed on injured reserve after aggravating surgically repaired left heel; no timetable for return | IND | Alec Pierce | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.020 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Ruled out for Week 2 vs. Bengals with hamstring injury suffered in Wednesday practice | HOU | Nico Collins | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.019 |
| suspension declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') WR faces minimum three-game suspension after arrest; blood-alcohol level nearly three times legal limit | IND | Keenan Allen | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.020 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Misses practice Thursday; expected to be out again this weekend | HOU | Nico Collins | 0.75 | +1.5 | helped -0.015 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out WR signed to reunite with QB Daniel Jones after Alec Pierce injury | IND | Darius Slayton | 0.85 | +1.3 | helped -0.013 |
| key starter returning declined: soft status (limited/questionable/cleared) OT returns to practice Thursday after missing time | HOU | Trent Brown | 0.75 | -1.1 | hurt +0.012 |
Quick answers
Who won Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts?
The Indianapolis Colts beat the Houston Texans 19-17 in Week 3 of the 2026 NFL season.
Who does niftiNFL pick to win Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts?
niftiNFL picks the Houston Texans, 52% to win, with a projected score of Houston Texans 23, Indianapolis Colts 22. The pick is stored before kickoff and never changed.
Was the niftiNFL pick right?
No. The pick was the Houston Texans; the final was Houston Texans 17, Indianapolis Colts 19.