NFL
More
Ravens at Cowboys
BAL
the pick · 64% to win
28–23
projected · BAL by 4.6 · total 51.2
BAL −3
final market margin · agrees
34–31
final · ✓
ATS – · O/U ✕
market margin and total, market's final price · margin error +1.6 · total error +13.8
Why Baltimore Ravens
Each factor's push toward the pick, in percentage points of win probability. Lamar Jackson vs Dak Prescott at quarterback. Forecast at kickoff: 94.0°F, wind 5.0 mph, Chance Rain Showers.
BAL is the better team (+9); BAL in better form (+3); DAL missing 3 starters (+2)
How the number moved
Every pre-kickoff run, oldest first. The last one is the pick of record.
| Run | DAL win | model | analyst | Pick | Market margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 7:02 PM ET | 32% | 32% | +0.0 | BAL | -6.9 |
| Sun 7:03 AM ET | 32% | 32% | +0.0 | BAL | -6.9 |
| Sun 11:01 AM ET | 32% | 32% | +0.0 | BAL | -6.9 |
| Sun 11:47 AM ET | 32% | 32% | +0.0 | BAL | -6.9 |
| Sun 3:03 PM ET | 32% | 32% | +0.0 | BAL | -6.9 |
| Sun 4:12 PM ET | 32% | 32% | +0.0 | BAL | -6.9 |
| Sun 7:02 PM ET | 32% | 32% | +0.0 | BAL | -6.9 |
| Sun 8:02 PM ET | 32% | 32% | +0.0 | BAL | -6.9 |
| Mon 12:02 AM ET | 39% | 39% | +0.0 | BAL | -4.0 |
| Mon 7:03 AM ET | 39% | 39% | +0.0 | BAL | -4.0 |
| Mon 11:02 AM ET | 39% | 39% | +0.0 | BAL | -4.0 |
| Mon 3:02 PM ET | 39% | 39% | +0.0 | BAL | -4.0 |
| Mon 7:02 PM ET | 35% | 39% | -3.4 | BAL | -5.0 |
| Mon 8:03 PM ET | 35% | 39% | -3.4 | BAL | -5.0 |
| Tue 12:02 AM ET | 35% | 39% | -3.4 | BAL | -5.0 |
| Tue 7:02 AM ET | 35% | 39% | -3.4 | BAL | -5.0 |
| Tue 11:02 AM ET | 35% | 39% | -3.6 | BAL | -5.0 |
| Tue 3:03 PM ET | 35% | 39% | -3.8 | BAL | -5.1 |
| Tue 7:01 PM ET | 35% | 39% | -3.8 | BAL | -5.1 |
| Wed 7:02 AM ET | 35% | 39% | -3.8 | BAL | -5.1 |
| Wed 11:02 AM ET | 35% | 39% | -3.8 | BAL | -5.1 |
| Wed 3:01 PM ET | 35% | 39% | -3.8 | BAL | -5.1 |
| Wed 7:03 PM ET | 35% | 39% | -3.8 | BAL | -5.1 |
| Thu 7:03 AM ET | 35% | 39% | -3.8 | BAL | -5.1 |
| Thu 11:02 AM ET | 35% | 39% | -3.8 | BAL | -5.1 |
| Thu 3:01 PM ET | 35% | 39% | -3.8 | BAL | -5.1 |
| Thu 7:02 PM ET | 35% | 39% | -3.8 | BAL | -5.1 |
| Thu 8:01 PM ET | 35% | 39% | -3.8 | BAL | -5.1 |
| Fri 12:01 AM ET | 35% | 39% | -3.8 | BAL | -5.1 |
| Fri 7:02 AM ET | 34% | 34% | +0.0 | BAL | -5.2 |
| Fri 11:02 AM ET | 34% | 34% | +0.0 | BAL | -5.2 |
| Fri 3:03 PM ET | 34% | 34% | +0.0 | BAL | -5.2 |
| Fri 7:02 PM ET | 36% | 34% | +1.9 | BAL | -4.7 |
| Sat 7:03 AM ET | 36% | 36% | +0.0 | BAL | -4.6 |
| Sat 11:02 AM ET | 36% | 36% | +0.0 | BAL | -4.6 |
| Sat 3:02 PM ET | 36% | 36% | +0.0 | BAL | -4.6 |
| Sat 7:03 PM ET | 36% | 36% | +0.0 | BAL | -4.6 |
| Sun 7:03 AM ET | 36% | 36% | +0.0 | BAL | -4.6 |
| Sun 11:01 AM ET | 36% | 36% | +0.0 | BAL | -4.6 |
| Sun 11:47 AM ET | 36% | 36% | +0.0 | BAL | -4.6 |
| Sun 3:02 PM ET | 36% | 36% | +0.0 | BAL | -4.6 |
| Sun 4:13 PM ET | 36% | 36% | +0.0 | BAL | -4.6 |
What the markets said
Probability the home team (DAL) wins, first snapshot → last before kickoff. Market margin in brackets, home minus away.
| Source | Open | Close | Snapshots |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 40% (-4.5) | 38% (-3.5) | 42 |
| Kalshi | 38% | 38% | 42 |
| DraftKings | 40% (-3.5) | 41% (-3.0) | 23 |
| nflverse price | 42% (-3.0) | 40% (-3.0) | 39 |
| niftiNFL | 32% | 36% (-4.6) | 42 |
What the news layer did
Claims read before kickoff. Bold = applied to the pick; gray = declined and kept as a shadow claim, graded at zero weight. Full analyst page for the week →
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| unusual travel or schedule disruption Cowboys traveling to Rio de Janeiro, Brazil for Sunday game; unprecedented international travel scenario for both teams | DAL | 0.75 | -0.8 | helped -0.005 | |
| unusual travel or schedule disruption Ravens traveling to Brazil for Sunday game; unprecedented international travel scenario | BAL | 0.75 | +0.8 | hurt +0.006 | |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report OT ruled out for Ravens vs Cowboys | BAL | Ronnie Stanley | 0.95 | +1.9 | hurt +0.014 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Torn plantar fascia in right foot, suffered Week 2 | DAL | P.J. Locke | 0.95 | -1.9 | helped -0.013 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report S will miss a few weeks with torn plantar fascia in right foot | DAL | P.J. Locke | 0.95 | -1.9 | helped -0.013 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report CB will miss a few weeks with injuries sustained in Week 2 | DAL | Cobie Durant | 0.95 | -1.9 | helped -0.013 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Remains out of practice on Thursday; status unclear for Sunday game | BAL | Zay Flowers | 0.65 | +1.3 | hurt +0.010 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') S absent from practice Wednesday; status unclear but not on official injury report yet | DAL | Malik Hooker | 0.60 | -1.2 | helped -0.009 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') LB absent from practice Wednesday; status unclear but not on official injury report yet | DAL | DeMarvion Overshown | 0.60 | -1.2 | helped -0.009 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out DL full practice participant for first time this season; was out since Week 2 last season with neck injury | BAL | Nnamdi Madubuike | 0.75 | -1.1 | helped -0.008 |
| unusual travel or schedule disruption declined: confidence 0.65 below floor for travel International game in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil; Kyle Hamilton states team has plan to mitigate travel impact | BAL | 0.65 | -0.7 | helped -0.005 | |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) declined: confidence 0.65 below floor for other Game played in Brazil (Rio); field condition concerns raised but Cowboys organization downplayed them | DAL | 0.65 | -0.3 | helped -0.002 | |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) declined: confidence 0.65 below floor for other Game scheduled to be played in Brazil; field concerns raised, potential for venue change | BAL | 0.65 | +0.3 | hurt +0.002 |
Quick answers
Who won Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys?
The Baltimore Ravens beat the Dallas Cowboys 34-31 in Week 3 of the 2026 NFL season.
Who does niftiNFL pick to win Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys?
niftiNFL picks the Baltimore Ravens, 64% to win, with a projected score of Baltimore Ravens 28, Dallas Cowboys 23. The pick is stored before kickoff and never changed.
Was the niftiNFL pick right?
Yes. The pick was the Baltimore Ravens; the final was Baltimore Ravens 34, Dallas Cowboys 31.